Ukrainian War Developments

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Bill Blazo

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china making 60% of the world’s steel is not a problem for the US. China making 60% of the world’s chips would be. For china setting such a goal blatantly and publically was a gross misstep born of overconfidence and lack of real diplomatic sophistication, China committed the cardinal sin of announcing its intent while its opponents could still do much to stop her.

the current chinese administration’s egoism and brutish lack of diplomatic sophistication would have been an embarrassment to Deng Xiaoping and the two administrations that followed him.
Oh I think it matters enormously that China's industrial capacity dwarfs the rest of the world combined im certain critical categories. Ships aren't made from chips and cheese. China's fundamental advantage in any future war is that its industrial base is highly broad and diverse, capable of producing everything from low-value to high-value goods and services. The US economy strongly though not entirely lacks this feature, because America's corrupt capitalists decided to offshore manufacturing abroad for that cheap labor (as Marx predicted this crap would happen way back in the day). So the Americans are good at making advanced aircraft and semiconductors, but only if they can source the intermediary parts and components, which they'll have a tough time doing in a future war. And they'll definitely have a harder time ramping up for more conventional and routine military products, even things like uniforms and medicine (just witness America's total fiascos and delays when it came to producing medical equipment to fight Covid). America's narrowly focused industrial base is one of the major structural reasons for its recent inflationary wave. Simply put, American industry cannot handle a crisis. The moment one hits, the supply chain breaks down.
 
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Bill Blazo

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Do you remember these S-300s from Slovakia..

"S-300 DIVISION NEAR NIKOLAEV TRANSFERRED BY SLOVAKIA TO UKRAINE WAS COMPLETELY DESTROYED BY RUSSIAN FORCES"
So far this is just a rumor. No hard evidence for it yet. Does anyone know anything concrete?

It's getting very hard for outside observers to determine what happened in cases like this because Ukraine made it illegal to post photos and videos of Ukrainian military losses. Some people are still violating that law, but evidence of Russian air strikes declined dramatically after the law went into effect, indicating that the vast majority of people are indeed following this law.
 

GodRektsNoobs

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Some peoples really underestimate Ukrainian air defense capability. It had 3 hundred launchers in around just for S300 at the start of conflict. Not to mention who knows how many Buk systems. And all this with live radar coverage by NATO AWACS that are permanently in the air at Ukrainian border. This is why Russian air, in areas where air defense are still sporadically active(they are in offline mode until target get into kill zone, so antiradar missiles do not help), are forced for low attitude operations.

In the East where Ukrainian air defence had ceased to exist Russia do use high attitude bomb runs.
Why not use strike packages with SEAD and EW escort at all times? It's integral to NATO air doctrine. All I've seen so far are lone Russian aircraft conducting strikes.
 

pmc

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Flankers variants get shot down, not once, but handful of times, should really count as an alarm for the performance of VKS. Especially against an enemy who is not even countering with a fleet of cutting edge US equipment. The people at the top of VKS should really do some deep analysis and reform after this war.
3 or 4 or shot down? and none at medium to higher altitude otherwise the debris will spread over kms.
. Its primary low altitude war with in visual range strike both in chopper and fighters.
higher altitude losses are not much better.
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I am not arguing against Su-34. In fact, I would certainly rank Su-34 above Su-30, especially for a country as big as Russia.
I just think that the Su-34 should be equipped with targeting pod that is more advanced and robust than its current internal electro-optical targeting systems. And I also think VKS should field an ocean of 250kg class GLONASS/INS PGMs, instead of carrying dumb bombs like we are seeing in Russian TV videos.
you only see image of Su-34 either shot down due to low altitude or what Russians is showing. it does not mean that other 200 to 300 sorties are done same way. Orion drone was testing in Syria but years later they showed up its strike sorties. so we cannot exclude they not testing systems of SU-34M and Ka-52M for much longer range strikes.
They might have already been doing so, but really, The longer this war drags on, so much that even the brits can get anti-ship missiles to Odessa, should really be a wake up call for VKS to ramp up their game.
i doubt few antiship missiles can change anything. Russia train with high end war. thats why they cannot see how rockets or drone attack a cargo ship.
Dude! Cost, efficiency.

How many assembly plants does the US has for F-35? The US produces more F-35's than Russia produces flanker versions, every year. Yet the US has only one assembly plant for F-35.
F-35 is think produced in Texas with global supply chain. not exactly ideal place for manufacturing when they have to compete with Elon Musk and so many other factories for skill labor and whole tranport expenses moving in and out stuff.
Flanker variants are produced in stand alone aviation towns with no competition from Elon or high price MBAs in the area. They are now producing Drones and Civil Aviation products in same locations. It is far more efficient when labor turnover is low and skill level dedicated to Aviation. If Russians cannot managed efficiently they will not have overhaul business in Gulf. they know how to manage.
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Do you really think this model of having two or three different plant producing essentially different variants of the same airframe, each with different major subsystems (radar, engine), and ONLY with a handful order each year per each variant is a good manufacturing model?!?!

It looks like Su-35, Su-34, Su-30SM are the three currently produced models for Russian Air force. My question will be why these three all have different engines and radars?
single seat and twin seat strike platform the same? twin seat platform may get more data from Drones/AWACS/JSTAR to have clear picture of much more targets on ground or sea.
while Single seat fighter mostly dealing with air targets with secondary role in strike. this create more proficient air force.
Well, at least from the trend of things, it looks like Russia is already moving towards more shared components and less platform variants. The VKS stopped purchasing Su-30M2 for quite a few years already, it seems. There is also the KAB-250 family proliferating. And the Su-30SM2 project of getting Su-30SM to the level of Su-35.
SU-30M replaced by Su-35 in same factory. Su-30SM is separate.
If Russia can eventually make Su-35 and Su-30SM with the same major components (engine, avionics). They simply become a single-seat, double-seat combo.
And Su-34 is kept as the long-range long-endurance tactical bomber with fighter DNA.

This would be a good thing to see in the future.
They have orders for Su-34M and S-70 built in same location.. i would think Su-30SM will moveout of production once MS21 is in mass production. Su-35 production will get replaced by Su-57/SU-75 as they in same factory.

I still hold the suspicion that the Russia strategic doctrine towards procurement is flawed and lacking in foresight. This is causing them valuable time and resources. And resulted in this current situation where Russia has all these repetitive PPT "newest cutting edge programs", but perpetually in the development phase, with no meaningfully large enough procurement to allow Russian VKS to have the fists to punch.
well they have more than 300 Su-34/Su-30. and now add upto 200 Su-25SM. this very big force.
Su-25SM3 survival rate very good and most effective aircraft for mobile targets. Ukraine hardly has armour formations. so only Su-25 can deal with it effectively.
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It's like they have the technology, they can make those equipment, and they have new stuff in the testing, but they simple don't have enough working systems in actual service in the VKS.
why you think so many in testing. they dont need single engine fighter or another turbo prop drone.
now they do need this one not for AAMs but huge sensor power and higher altitude than AWACS.
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Bill Blazo

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Why not use strike packages with SEAD and EW escort at all times? It's integral to NATO air doctrine. All I've seen so far are lone Russian aircraft conducting strikes.
Really? The video below came out yesterday. At least 5 Su-34s are visible. The idea that Russia is launching uncoordinated strikes by solo fighters and bombers is, as far as I can tell, calculated Western propaganda to denigrate the Russian war effort.

 
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