Ukrainian War Developments

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Richard Santos

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tank3487 said:
US never faced decent air defense(they do choose war targets wisely and do block building of air defense by countries that they consider as possible targets, it is one of the reason why Turkey despite being NATO member was forced to buy S400 from Russia). All what had Iraq was export variants of S125. Serbia same story. And it is not like they did not get losses in Serbia(and in case of Serbia main damage received civilian infrastructure that had forced surrender, army losses were quite minimal actually), not to mention that Serbia still retained some air defense capability by the end of operation. Russia could have pulled a tactic similar to US in Serbia and just shut down all power generation(NPPs power lines are extremely vulnerable targets) and bridges over Dnepr basically killing any hope of Ukraine economy. But there are political reasons why such actions were not chosen.

Ukraine had ended with whole western military district of USSR that was aimed at holding entire NATO force with arms of armies that were pull out from Europe being stationed there. And those systems are not a joke, especially in such quantity and radars that you cannot shut down due to them being on NATO AWACS that patrol Ukraine border 24/7 and live feed data.
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Actually in Vietnam the US faced air defense that is compare to contemporary airpower as formidable as any ever faced in combat by anyone.

The Israelis then faced similarly formidable air defence over Gaza and Golan heights in 1973, and got their clocks cleaned. The US was able to immediately step in and provide the Israelis with the equipment and doctrine to suppress Arab missile defence.

Vietnam taught the US the critical importance of SEAD, the US and Israelis really seem to be the only ones to fully embraced these lessons. It seems No one else really did to the same extend and continue to operate to various degree under the assumption that good tactics, training, the pilot courage can allow airpower to operate successfully in an air defence environment.

The entire US air power doctrine in Europe during the final decade of the cold war was focused on suppressing and penetrating soviet air defense. What to do after the air defence is suppressed actually seems to have gotten less attention then suppressing the air defence.
 
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Richard Santos

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Anlsvrthng said:
This strategy works if the stars are right, so the international ballance of power, interest of the population and elite alligning with each other.

And it is not the case anymore.
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actually, the case is stronger now then anytime since the end of the cold war. This is the first time since the fall of soviet union that there is consensus at all levels of the US that there is serious viable and persistent challenge to the system which the US put in place to facilitate its hegemonic power.

Nothing focuses physical and mental energy, as well as ruthlessness, as effectively as genuine fear of the loss of the basis of accustomed privileges and prerogatives.

If the US establishment genuinely believe trump will pull US out of NATO and trump could be president, then he is a dead man.

but trump is not in it for anyone but trump, and being dead or being in jail is awfully inconvenient for being trump. So even if trump does become president, he will know this is a place he can not go again.
 
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Bill Blazo

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KYli said:
Major offensive against Kharkiv or just an attempt to divert Kyiv's resources from Donbas front.
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I think it's almost certain that these troops will be involved in the coming Donbas offensive somehow. Now, whether they're bound for the Izium or Severodonetsk sectors or whether they'll be used for a flanking push somewhere, I don't know.
Richard Santos said:
actually, the case is stronger now then anytime since the end of the cold war. This is the first time since the fall of soviet union that there is consensus at all levels of the US that there is serious viable and persistent challenge to the system which the US put in place to facilitate its hegemonic power.

Nothing focuses physical and mental energy, as well as ruthlessness, as effectively as genuine fear of the loss of the basis of accustomed privileges and prerogatives.

If the US establishment genuinely believe trump will pull US out of NATO and trump could be president, then he is a dead man.
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Yeah wholeheartedly agree with this. What makes this moment far more dangerous for the United States is China's economic and industrial power, which vastly exceeds anything the Soviet Union could have mustered. China makes nearly 60% of the world's steel. Just ponder that one.
 
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tank3487

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Richard Santos said:
Actually in Vietnam the US faced air defense that is compare to contemporary airpower as formidable as any ever faced in combat by anyone.
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Vietnam did win a war due to this air defense and problems that they had created for US, this is why US are MUCH more careful when they choose what country to invade and this is why they block countries from obtaining decent air defense.

As for Israel, it is pointless to discuss, whole region is hopeless, Saudi Arabia failed to defend from Houthi. Up to the point that they were forced into ceasefire, and this is despite having modern supplied by US air defense network.

As for SEAD. It is not as simple as you think if enemy can use radar installations and AWACS from allies that cover most of territory from the border. If air defense units do no use radars except time that they shoot on target, it is extremely hard to destroy.
Even Serbia managed to keep it air defense units intact and make some damage to overwhelming NATO air force with outdated equipment by using ambush tactic. And it is without allies providing them with radar live feed.
 
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BlackWindMnt

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Bill Blazo said:
I think it's almost certain that these troops will be involved in the coming Donbas offensive somehow. Now, whether they're bound for the Izium or Severodonetsk sectors or whether they'll be used for a flanking push somewhere, I don't know.

Yeah wholeheartedly agree with this. What makes this moment far more dangerous for the United States is China's economic and industrial power, which vastly exceeds anything the Soviet Union could have mustered. China makes nearly 60% of the world's steel. Just ponder that one.
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I think NATO even under estimated Russia productive capacity and robustness of their Economy. That is why Russia is still flying sorties and bombing while NATO has been saying Russia would be out of bomb 2 weeks ago.

Classic western fascism the enemy is both a giant and ant no one really knows because they swallowed their own propaganda.

Now imaging China with its productive capacity they could pretty much print missiles and drones all day long, don't think an American soldier will every reach deep into China if they even survive the storming of the beach.
 
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Richard Santos

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Bill Blazo said:
I think it's almost certain that these troops will be involved in the coming Donbas offensive somehow. Now, whether they're bound for the Izium or Severodonetsk sectors or whether they'll be used for a flanking push somewhere, I don't know.

Yeah wholeheartedly agree with this. What makes this moment far more dangerous for the United States is China's economic and industrial power, which vastly exceeds anything the Soviet Union could have mustered. China makes nearly 60% of the world's steel. Just ponder that one.
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china making 60% of the world’s steel is not a problem for the US. China making 60% of the world’s chips would be. For china setting such a goal blatantly and publically was a gross misstep born of overconfidence and lack of real diplomatic sophistication, China committed the cardinal sin of announcing its intent while its opponents could still do much to stop her.

the current chinese administration’s egoism and brutish lack of diplomatic sophistication would have been an embarrassment to Deng Xiaoping and the two administrations that followed him.
 
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