Ukrainian War Developments

Why on earth has Russia not developed a tactical deployable active protection system to help protect its vehicles

it costs less than 5% of the total cost of a tank and could make the difference between a tank being busted and surviving

and yet they insist on rolling tanks out in open country with no APS

Remnants of a Russian artillery position in the Kiev region; several dozen 3Sh1 122mm flechette and 3BK13/3BK6 series HEAT-FS-T projectiles can be seen scattered along the road.

asif iqbal said:

Why on earth has Russia not developed a tactical deployable active protection system to help protect its vehicles

it costs less than 5% of the total cost of a tank and could make the difference between a tank being busted and surviving

and yet they insist on rolling tanks out in open country with no APS

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A russian tank don't cost a lot... and they have Arena and Shtora-1 available. They have incredible amounts of old tanks tho. MAybe they don't bother. These systems are not perfect against top attack atgm.

A dedicated CIWS unit with small caliber bullets (.50) would be interesting against ATGM. It could have a good infantry deterrent if combined with an accoustic Gun attack positioning system. The radar would be highly fragile against snipers and frag tho.

meckhardt98 said:

Remnants of a Russian artillery position in the Kiev region; several dozen 3Sh1 122mm flechette and 3BK13/3BK6 series HEAT-FS-T projectiles can be seen scattered along the road.

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Look like they left in an hurry. They are clearly not in a relatively secure forward operating base like the Canadian and US was in Afhanistan, lobbing artillery without return. Unloading all that ammo arround and installing themselves for a while at the same place is clearly not a good idea.

Atomicfrog said:

A russian tank don't cost a lot... and they have Arena and Shtora-1 available. They have incredible amounts of old tanks tho. MAybe they don't bother. These systems are not perfect against top attack atgm.

A dedicated CIWS unit with small caliber bullets (.50) would be interesting against ATGM. It could have a good infantry deterrent if combined with an accoustic Gun attack positioning system. The radar would be highly fragile against snipers and frag tho.

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This brings up a good point. So there's a ton of public sources that say Russia has 12,500 tanks in total, including those held in reserve. Do we know how quickly those reserve tanks can be activated and brought on the battlefield, if the Russians wanted to do so?

Bill Blazo said:

Oh I think it matters enormously that China's industrial capacity dwarfs the rest of the world combined im certain critical categories. Ships aren't made from chips and cheese. China's fundamental advantage in any future war is that its industrial base is highly broad and diverse, capable of producing everything from low-value to high-value goods and services. The US economy strongly though not entirely lacks this feature, because America's corrupt capitalists decided to offshore manufacturing abroad for that cheap labor (as Marx predicted this crap would happen way back in the day). So the Americans are good at making advanced aircraft and semiconductors, but only if they can source the intermediary parts and components, which they'll have a tough time doing in a future war. And they'll definitely have a harder time ramping up for more conventional and routine military products, even things like uniforms and medicine (just witness America's total fiascos and delays when it came to producing medical equipment to fight Covid). America's narrowly focused industrial base is one of the major structural reasons for its recent inflationary wave. Simply put, American industry cannot handle a crisis. The moment one hits, the supply chain breaks down.

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The reason for the unusual durability of American hegemony has in fact been the US does not seek to hog all forms or even most forms of value creation and wealthy generation. it freely allows other people to takeover and control most of them. This gives most productive players a stake in the system American created. But America retains primacy do long as America retains control of the lynch pin that makes the greatest productivity and value creation possible, and retain the military capability that provides security underpinning of the system. with this America can directly defeat or play off any power that seems to challenge it against other by granting decisive favors to the others.

Notice American influence did not under go any longer term decline when its pandemic response was poor. These are immaterial to source of american hegemony.

Bill Blazo said:

This brings up a good point. So there's a ton of public sources that say Russia has 12,500 tanks in total, including those held in reserve. Do we know how quickly those reserve tanks can be activated and brought on the battlefield, if the Russians wanted to do so?

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I would fill old T-72 with concrete (carroussel and gun compartment) and make them roll in front of convoy to get the first couple of ATGM salvo. At this rate, if they go blind, way better to use a hard target to find ennemies. I'm sure that these rugged soviet era machinery are easy to start and roll for day use. They are not upgraded a lot.

Phead128 said:

Exactly. Trump won't be the nominee. Republicans won't risk running a loser twice, esp. if Biden is still alive and running again. Establishment Republicans would rather wage a civil war to oust Trump than risk losing two times against Biden.

And yes, even a half-dead Biden with high inflation and mediocre growth can beat a Trump again.

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I’m an American so I can speak on the mood of the country. Biden is very very unpopular. His VP is very unpopular. The Democratic base is very disappointed in Biden. He hasn’t fulfilled a lot of his promises that galvanized them to vote for him. Because of this the Democrats are about to get destroyed in the midterms. Thing is there has been polls done that if the elections were held today Trump would win. There is no more any establishment Republicans. They all bowed to Trump. Best believe if he is the nominee he will win simply because the Republican base loves him. Think about it Trump mishandled the pandemic and George Floyd protest and Biden eked put a victory. Not to mention many of the Republicans states that Biden won passed tougher voting laws. You add voter apathy and disappointment from the left, inflation and a energized right wing base Trump can still win. No one in the left wing base is excited to vote for Biden again or vote for Kamala Harris in 2024. But in the right there is plenty excitement to vote for Trump again. Democrats better hope a recession doesn’t happens next year or 2024 because it will be massacre.

Richard Santos said:

The reason for the unusual durability of American hegemony has in fact been the US does not seek to hog all forms or even most forms of value creation and wealthy generation. it freely allows other people to takeover and control most of them. This gives most productive players a stake in the system American created. But America retains primacy do long as America retains control of the lynch pin that makes the greatest productivity and value creation possible, and retain the military capability that provides security underpinning of the system. with this America can directly defeat or play off any power that seems to challenge it against other by granting decisive favors to the others.

Notice American influence did not under go any longer term decline when its pandemic response was poor. These are immaterial to source of american hegemony.

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The fundamental source of America's hegemonic power is that China and the Soviet Union lost over 40 million people between them absorbing the blows of Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany, while the United States lost 400,000 and coasted to victory against its exhausted and distracted opponents. This is always America's strategy for containing any geostrategic rival in Eurasia: arm your allies and let them bleed to death fighting your wars, then reap the rewards at the end (see this war in Ukraine right now, or how the US is heavily arming Taiwan). While much of Eurasia was literally in ruins after World War II, America emerged as the last man standing and used its power over Western Europe and Japan to make the dollar the world's dominant currency. It then poured billions into the Marshall Plan not because it wanted to spread "value creation" or other such non-sense, but purely because it wanted Western Europe to serve as an effective military and economic bulwark against the Soviet Union, so that when the time did come to fight, it would be the Europeans doing most of the dying and hopefully holding the Soviets back at the same time. Why do you think the Soviet Union was left out of the Marshall Plan, despite intentionally misleading public propaganda from American officials that it could be included? It's because the Soviets were a threat and the Europeans weren't. By the end of the war, Western Europe had become America's puppet satellite over the Atlantic, and it remains so to this day.

American influence has declined substantially in the last decade. Even many Western Europeans don't see America as something to emulate or admire anymore. After 40 years of neoliberalism and corrupt leaders, even most regular Americans no longer believe in their system. And it's easy to see how the American imperium will eventually terminate: through internal divisions. No foreign conquest necessary.

Jingle Bells said:

I don't have a problem with ALL countries who are fence riders when it comes to China? I have a problem with countries like Russia, Serbia, etc., which are themselves in dire situations. They can't afford to ride on that fence! They ditch J10C for old Mig29 this year, and the next year they go into a bloody war which they can't recover for decades. They are already in dire situations, and instead of trusting China, they hang on to old Russian junks (because of their prejudice) that will surely lead to their upcoming demise.

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I don't know what your point is. You have no idea what China has even offered to other countries for export. More importantly, each sovereign nation has the right to make their own decisions on what they need. The fact that Serbia hasn't ruled China out after geopolitical pressure should tell you that they already have a more independent foreign policy than most nations out there. I have no idea why you are still giving them a hard time.

Jingle Bells said:

If Armenia has a fleet of Chinese military drones, do you think they will get their ass kicked by Azerbaijan?

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Not every nation needs to buy from China. China is a new player in the higher end military market. New players typically have to do more to secure contracts.

Jingle Bells said:

Heck, even Russia right now is on the brink of getting their ass kicked across the galaxy! If they just lowered their noble white head just a little bit and sort China's military technology only just 2 years ago, they would at least be able to integrate Chinese targeting pods to their Sukhois and Migs with an ocean of cheap Beidou/INS guided 250kg class PGM's, and get a huge fleet of cheap attack drones that could have won the war already. At least before the war starts (make an order in 2019, deliver in 2020/2021, and get battle ready just before this war), they could get a couple of 075 LHD and/or 071 LPD, and/or 052D, which would have help to take Odessa in the first wave of attack already. I am pretty sure China would be happy to sell the platform to Russia integrated with Russia missiles systems

At least doing this would be able to chain China to Russia's bandwagon, giving the West an excuse to pressure China, and forces China to react aggressively to those pressures. Right now, China has the luxury of basically distancing herself from this conflict and watching from afar.

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Why would you want China to be chained to Russia? Of course Russia should have bought Chinese hardware before this war, but they did not. Even so, they are about as closely aligned with China as you can get.

Selling military hardware is not the end goal. The end goal is to pull as many countries to your side (or at least neutral) as possible. Selling military hardware is just one way to achieve that, but there are many other ways.

As I said, do not rule any country out because of their geography or past decision. If you rule countries out because of their past decisions, then you will have very few friends in this world.