Ukrainian War Developments

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anzha

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Abominable said:
Mud works both ways. It'll slow the Russian advance, but it'll make a Ukrainian retreat even harder. If anything it'll be much worse for the Ukrainians because of the disparity in the air. Any trapped armour will be free kills for RuAF.
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The mud has worked far more for the defenders than the attackers. Until the fields dry out, we are going to see predictable, defensible channels of attack. Once the fields dry out, the Russian advantages - presuming they still exist in a month - can be brought to bear.


Abominable said:
Reinforcing Ukrainian front lines would be suicide IMO, it would be better to keep what reserves you have and be prepared to form a new defensive line closer to supply lines.
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The flanks and in depth would be the better way to do reinforce.

Abominable said:
Russian sources are claiming all Ukrainian reserves have already been deployed.
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The Ukrainians have been shifting forces from Kiev. If those are all in place, then the Russians are going to have the fight of their lives on their hands. I have serious doubts the Ukrainians have moved all they can by now.

I have serious doubts about Ukrainian sources on the Russian forces situation and I have serious doubts about the Russian sources on the Ukrainians either.

We will see what the Ukrainians do. We will have to see how the Russians perform. Prognostications here on the forum - mine included - have not been terribly accurate so far.
 
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anzha

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tank3487 said:
There are three main reasons why Armenia lost to Azerbaijan:
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Needs to be moved to another thread.

tank3487 said:
2) Azerbaijan is simply rich in gas and oil. It can afford to buy enough arms(from Russia too). Without Russia help, it is a one-sided fight. We had stopped getting TB2 vids from Ukrainian side quite fast in the conflict, so with proper AD you can counter it.
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cue the music, boys!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513205410890665985
 
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tank3487

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anzha said:
cue the music, boys!
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513205410890665985
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They get couple batches of fresh supply of TB2s from Turkey. It is not just old T72s that Ukraine receive from NATO. My point do stand, heavy UAVs do get countered by proper AD and fighters cover quite effective. Stream of TB2 vids ceased really fast after first rushes and establishing of proper AD. It is actually light UAVs+artillery that are pain even if you have good AD and air. Too cheap and too small, that AD that actually work vs them are too expensive to use. As for Russia main problem was that domestic UAVs while do exist(and are effective) are too few in numbers for such massive battlefield. Mass production had started a bit too late for this war.
 
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anzha

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Atomicfrog said:
Russia need to pour hell on Ukrainian army in the east, don't know if they have some stockpiles of their giant thermobaric bomb, but i don't know why they don't use a giant air campaign push to decimate the frontline. Do they have nothing to shot at outside cities ?
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For almost 7 weeks, the Russians have not conducted the massive air attack we have been expecting. The US says the VKS is conducting 200+ air sorties per day already. That strongly implies something to me.

Atomicfrog said:
The mud is impeding movement outside roads and it's hard to move around urban area. Ukraine are using the Urban areas as choke points. If they want to destroy them by ground forces, they will have to wait for summer...
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Some time in May. The Raputitsa normally dries up around then. The weather for the two weeks at least has rain all over Ukraine. If we have an extended rainy season (doubt it, but possible)...

Once the mud dries out, the terrain become excellent tank country.
 
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anzha

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tank3487 said:
They get couple batches of fresh supply of TB2s from Turkey.
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I'm being snarky and silly. I apologize.

tank3487 said:
It is not just old T72s that Ukraine receive from NATO. My point do stand, heavy UAVs do get countered by proper AD and fighters cover quite effective.
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You are possibly right. However, the Ukrainian AF is still in play still. I have to wonder about its effectiveness as a result.

How many visually verified TB2s have we seen down? 3?
 
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Jingle Bells

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asif iqbal said:
when it comes to eavesdropping, surveillance, intelligence gathering, code breaking, behind enemy lines, diversion, deception and electronic jamming the Western forces have shown how superior they are in the full spectrum

China should take take note and learn from this

in other news

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512894545192800264
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Dude, you are on this forum, you should how junk Russia is at this compare to China.
At least PLA PGM bombing is done by targeting pods attached. Do you see the Russians with a lot of targeting pods on their Su's and Mig's

Do you see a parallel of J-16D in Russian services? The Ruskies uses their Su-35 to do SEAD! That's just shameful! They should hang themselves for this indignity. They have all these different version of Su-27 airframes: Su-35, Su-34, Su-30M2, Su-30SM. Yet, what role diversification do you even see? A bunch of "diversity" doing the same boring, old jobs.

Just like those new-age gen-Z teens with all kinds of different appearances and rainbow spectrum of dyed hair color, and all trying to be different, yet they all act the same.

For Su-27 airframe, China right now is only producing J-16, J-16D and J-15, J-15D, J-15S. (With J-11D possibly)
J-16: Air-superiority fighter/bomber
J-16D: EW/SEAD, Anti-radiation
(potentially: J-11D: multi-role air superiority)

J-15: Naval milti-role air superiority
J-15D: naval EW/SEAD, Anti-radiation
J-15S: Naval trainer, naval Air-superiority fighter/bomber

And you are trying to associate Russian air force to the PLAAF. Dude, aren't you a "brigadier" here? Why are you talking like some Taiwanese peasants?
 
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pmc

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They are using special version of Su-34 for EW.
Ukranian said they use manpad to down one. if the flight profile is low altitude EW may not have much time to react.
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The plane was shot down using Stinger MANPADS.
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