T-72M1 and BMP-1...might as well send them MiG-17's from the museums too.
No kidding. These are Warsaw Pact degraded versions. Ukraine had loads of Soviet T-72Bs in storage.
T72B in the motorway encounter the Javelin or NLAW for that matter and it did not go well
The problem I have with comments like this is that Ukraine also has T-72B tanks in service. And most of the T-72B tanks operated by Russian aligned forces seem to be used by the Donbass separatists. Which are nowhere near that area.
I think his point was that the Ukrainians will have to try and prevent the envelopment maneuver the Russians will perform behind the entrenched positions in Donbass. Otherwise those forces will be surrounded and annihilated. The maneuver warfare part will take place outside settlements.
But Russia won't just be pushing from Donbass i.e. east. They will be pushing from the north and south at the same time.
So, no, they do not need to get around them when they already have passed Izium and Mariupol.
It's improbable that the Ukrainians will surrender and give up territory. The people running the show are nationalists, extremists. Their game plan is to escalate this to World War III. That's how they intend to win, when NATO joins the fight. The more likely scenarios for Russia are total defeat or constant decades-long war until Russia is totally exhausted (and possible regime change in Moscow) and Ukraine is totally destroyed.
Uh no. If Ukraine did try to go total war and Russia did have issues breaking them then Russia could just do a massive bombing campaign with their strategic bombers. Russia has roughly the same size strategic bomber fleet as the US. Roughly same number of Tu-95 as B-52, Tu-22M3 as B-1, and slightly less Tu-160 than B-2. But Tu-160 has like twice the payload of the B-2.
The chances of Ukraine signing anything that would give up even Crimea is very remote. They will fight to take it all back, and they will fight to the end. They will be constantly supplied by NATO so they're never going to run out of ammo or equipment.
Russia will never run out of ammo either. They might have issues with some supplies eventually. But at least bullets won't be an issue. Nor will diesel.
The numbers are in their favor as well, because the Russians are unwilling to draft more than the standard number of yearly conscripts.
The main objective is to destroy or displace the Ukrainian army in Donbass. It remains to be seen what the Russians will decide to do afterwards. But they made it clear that Ukraine becoming neutral is one of the objectives. If they insist of retaining that NATO aspirational clause in their constitution the Russians won't stop at that.
Russia is also going to bleed population almost as much as Ukraine as young people flee to avoid conscription and to seek better opportunities abroad. I would expect to see expanding colonies of Russian expats in places like Latin America, Central Asia and Southeast Asia.
Sure there will be Russian immigration. But I think you can't compare the situation of either. And Europe itself will see massive migration happen once energy costs and inflation spiral out of control.
So there is a report that Ukrainian forces are 20 km from Kherson ? I wonder. and there is other report that said Russia may pull out.
They have been there right since the beggining. They basically do artillery bombardments on the outkirts of Kherson every time they get out of Nikolayev. It remains to be seen what Russia will do about this. But they won't pull of Kherson. Not without a negotiated deal. Even with a deal I find it increasingly unlikely the Russians would pull out.
Kinda hard to believe, as Russia are said to set a new administration there. If the city fall back to Ukraine or abandoned, the city's inhabitatans may suffer reprisal or some of them would suffer reprisal for being considered "Pro Russians"
Yeah that is one reason why I think the Russians won't leave Kherson.
They were said to be mining a bridge across the Dnieper in Kherson a while ago. IMO it would be a mistake, but they know their capabilities more than we do. It's possible that Putin has decided he lost in March and he wants to end the war and all the stuff about focusing on Donbas is just cover for an orderly withdrawal back to pre-February 24th borders. In that case, a major humiliation and defeat for Russia.
Lol. No. Donbass will be extended to its maximum borders. And I think Ukraine will lose the two oblasts in the South too.
I'm getting vibes of the 1904-05 Russo-Japanese war.
What? A war fought on the other side of Russia, really far from their population and industrial core? Nope.
Except the Russians have no reinforcements, and they show no signs of being willing to escalate. Instead, we've had one unilateral concession / retreat after another. Not only are they being made to look evil in the eyes of the West and some neutral observers, they are being made to look weak.
Without increasing the amount of troops deployed to Ukraine they needed to pull troops from elsewhere to attack the Ukrainian formations near the Donbass. And the phantom attacks on Kiev and Odessa outlived their purpose. You can't invade a city like Kiev with 50k troops anyway.
People still can't get their heads wrapped around the idea but it's a real possibility: Russia may deliberately choose to lose the war rather than escalate their tactics or send reinforcements.
They made their objectives clear when the war started and I doubt they will stop the conflict until those are met.
It's possible that they are horrified at what they themselves did in terms of humanitarian costs, gobsmacked at the unified Western response and its economic effects, and just want to cut their losses, retreat back to their borders, and try to repair the damage. Their continuing attacks are to provide cover for their retreat. It's possible. You have no idea what's going on in Moscow. All we have is what they are doing on the ground, which is entirely consistent with what I wrote above.
What? That Putin has over 80% approval rating and people keep saying in Russia that he should be pushing the Ukrainians harder? Yeah right.
ISW Update. It's not clear that all the units withdrawn from the North are being redeployed to East/South.
I doubt they would place the VDV paratroopers they had near Kiev fighting the Ukrainians in the Donbass pocket.
Those would be better off resting and getting used in a week or two in a rear area action elsewhere.
They have mostly light equipment and would be most useful in a war of movement. Not attacking the Ukrainian Siegfried Line.
What I think they will do is put the VDV in Belarus or elsewhere in Russia and get more units of the 1st Guards Tank Army to replace them in the Donbass offensive. Rotating troops out.
Turns out Gazprom had been emptying the Germania gas storage plant since 2021, so the Germans just realized it had barely 1% of gas left in it after they took control of it
Remains to be seen if true. But if the Russians did that they were smart. Since the Europeans have proven themselves to be a bunch of thieves anyway. Perhaps they need to learn the same lesson the Ukrainians did when the Russians cut their gas after the Ukrainians stopped paying. What will they use the Euros they get from Europe for anyway? Now Europe wants to only sell Russia food and medicine. While they keep importing everything they want from Russia. Except. Russia hasn't imported food from Europe since 2014.
So that would leave medicine. And you know what? They can get most of the medicine from somewhere else like India or China.
The EU is making itself increasingly irrelevant for the Russian economy.
Ukraine used to make missile sensors. So that makes sense. I know Russia had the damnedest time replacing the R-77 missile sensor for example. One reason why the Russian Air Force stuck with the R-27 in service for as long as they did is they did not want to be dependent on Ukrainian parts for the missiles. Only after they replaced the Ukrainian sensor in the R-77 did they order the 100% Russian R-77-1 in large quantities.
Raputitsa or General Mud is the cause. This happens almost every year. Its a consequence of the very deep, organic dirt in a fairly wet climate. It makes for great farm land. It also makes for muck that is deep and thick. People can lose shoes to it even. Driving a truck or tank through it seems...less than brilliant. Putin had to know about the muck. I don't get why he'd not wait for May to launch this war. General Mud retires from the field around then.
Supposedly the Ukrainians would have attacked Donbass by then. This was a preemptive attack so it had to happen earlier.
