Too bad southfront got shut down. It’s hard to find Russian source of the war. The ISW reads like statements from the Ukrainian general staff reports, which incidentally is their relatively only source of information. And they keep harping on Russian low morale and defecting troops, but all I have seen on social media is surrendering Ukrainian troops in Mariupol so far.
Ukrainian War Developments
- Thread starter james smith esq
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When are you & your bandwagon leaving native america?
Ukrainians said that back in 2014. But as soon as the war ended they went straight back to infighting and jailing each other.
Whatever they destroy, they will have to rebuild as POWs. Not sure how you would go about destroying a farm. Hopefully the war will be over before harvesting season.
OK, this is just a wild guess, but looking at news articles and images on Twitter, it seems like what happened at Trostyanets, as well as other towns that the Ukrainians are successfully counter-attacking, is becoming clear. Basically, the Russians are falling victim to sudden and precise artillery bombardments that they are not expecting. At Mala Rohan, the Russian camp was shown on Western media after the attack. It was basically troops camping out on the grassland, they were not in bunkers at all. At Trostyanets, the Ukrainian 93rd mechanized brigade (a veteran brigade from Donbass, a documentary was made about them around 2016) was able to secretly move into position outside of town and its artillery opened up on the Russians, catching them by surprise.
The Russians also have large artillery, but their intelligence on Ukrainian positions is not as good. There are also signs that the vaunted 4th tank brigade was low on supplies, despite how close Trostyanets is to the border. Once the Ukrainian artillery takes out the Russian command centers and tanks, the Ukrainian armored units and infantry move in. Overall, a much better use of combined arms by the Ukrainians. But the decisive factor in this battle may be intelligence. The Ukrainians knew where the Russians were precisely, the Russians didn't know what the Ukrainians were up to.
According to the NYT, the Russians opened up a number of humanitarian corridors during their occupation of Trostyanets and it's possible their positions were known to civilians who were allowed to exit the city. Another possibility is that the Americans passed the precise coordinates of the Russian positions to the Ukrainians. Otoh, the Russian GLONASS satellite system did not pick up the Ukrainians. And nor did they have accurate air surveillance by plane or drone.
The Russians also have large artillery, but their intelligence on Ukrainian positions is not as good. There are also signs that the vaunted 4th tank brigade was low on supplies, despite how close Trostyanets is to the border. Once the Ukrainian artillery takes out the Russian command centers and tanks, the Ukrainian armored units and infantry move in. Overall, a much better use of combined arms by the Ukrainians. But the decisive factor in this battle may be intelligence. The Ukrainians knew where the Russians were precisely, the Russians didn't know what the Ukrainians were up to.
According to the NYT, the Russians opened up a number of humanitarian corridors during their occupation of Trostyanets and it's possible their positions were known to civilians who were allowed to exit the city. Another possibility is that the Americans passed the precise coordinates of the Russian positions to the Ukrainians. Otoh, the Russian GLONASS satellite system did not pick up the Ukrainians. And nor did they have accurate air surveillance by plane or drone.
That's the reason.
GLONASS satellites are just for navigation. They cant be used for spotting enemy troops
Yeah. The next question is what land area Russian surveillance can accurately cover with the satellites/planes they have. They have no hope in a war where they are blind compared to their opponent. It's like, you have a gun, he has a gun, but you are blind whereas he can see. You can outnumber him 10-to-1 and your gun can be 10x more powerful, but you still lose.
If they can only accurately surveil 10 sq. km, they can only fight in 10 sq. km at a time. If they've realized this, it may be another factor in their withdrawals and narrowing the battlefield. Anyone would run away from that situation.
Putin has history of playing around with Europeans quite often in his games Europeans end up at receiving end as he thinks ahead. now this Ukraine file is increasingly pushed towards Turkey and Middleast. i will not be surprized he mix together Paris climate accord with Ukraine.
The Russians do not have close air support?
My guess is that it's been rendered useless by Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses, which are undoubtedly arriving from the West in spades. I've noticed the Russian losses of tanks and troops have dropped since the first week of the invasion when they were going Leroy Jenkins, but their aircraft losses are pretty steady.
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