Ukrainian War Developments

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MortyandRick

Senior Member
Registered Member
If Russia feel she could entrap all the ukrainian forces in the east in a field battle of annihilation then it would make sense not to interrupt the Ukrainians while they are heading into the trap.
Really?? I thought it was be better to destory all those rails and reinforcements if they can.

Maybe they can't ?

Time will tell I guess. Hope it doesn't turn into a debacle like the northern front.
 

Zichan

Junior Member
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Ukranian isn't any ethnicity any more than being east German or South Vietnamese is, or Taiwanese. You can't commit genocide against a political ideology. Were all east Germans genocided when Germany reunified?
I suggest you learn first what ethnicity is and study European history. Ukrainians are in no way an exception. Most modern European ethnicities were forged less than 200 years ago in the process of national revival. The word "ethnicity" didn't even exist in the English language prior to WW2.

Second, you have no right to decide what ethnicity a person belongs to. Likewise, for the Taiwanese. They have a unique history, culture and sense of identity that fully justifies them to identify as Taiwanese if they so choose to.
 
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4Runner

Junior Member
Registered Member
I am sorry, but that’s just typical western MSM gaslighting propaganda at work.

The primary reason Russia rushed the initial phases of the war was due to the threat of NATO intervention.

The greatest risk for Putin was that NATO would actually grow a pair and rush in rapid reaction ground troops to stare down the Russian advance and essentially dare them to start WWIII. Putin might have been prepared to roll the dice and bet that Biden will fold, but China might not have been willing to bet the proverbial farm on it. Without full, albeit behind the scenes, Chinese economic support, Russia could not without western sanctions.

Thus he could not afford to do a methodical minimal risk and loss conventional strategy to push slowly from west to east, and instead had to make the initial rushes to secure the bare minimum amount of territory that is needed to make the whole Ukraine invasion worthwhile.

The secondary objective of the direct threat to Kiev was to pin down a sizeable proportion of the Ukrainian military and more critically, redirect the a significant share of NATO supplied weapons to Kiev rather than have it all go the actual frontlines where the bulk of the fighting and dying was happening.

The poor show from the Russian military in the field could hardly be blamed on Putin.

The only strategic ‘mistake’ that might be reasonably attributed to Putin was the softy softly brotherly war approach. That might be true, but in hindsight, that aspect may well have been deliberately overblown by all sides. By the west to discredit Putin personally, and by the Russians to humanise him.

But I suspect the main reason there wasn’t a shock and awe style mass bombardment of the Ukrainians was simply because the VVS lacked the actual ability to mount such large scale and sustained air strikes.

The first day of war strikes were probably as shock and awe as the VVS could manage, and they needed to take a few days off to recover afterwards at that.

It is clear now that the bulk of the VVS geared primarily for air combat against NATO, and the Russians criminally under invested in key support assets and systems like AWACS, ISR, drones, targeting pods and above all else, air launched PGMs.

The bulk of the Russian PGM strikes are coming from naval cruise missiles, Iskander launchers and attack helicopters.

The VVS are reduced to lobbing iron bombs with Su34s, Su30s and Su35s and essentially gifting the Ukrainians kills against those premium aircraft they should have no business threatening.

Even during the early 2000s the PLAAF was better prepared for ground strike with its JH7 and Su30MKK fleets since China actually purchased the bulk of Russian made PGMs with its MKK orders.

But I digress, the point is that Putin could hardly be blamed for not launching the kind of massed air strikes the VSS is simply unable to deliver.

Now the big strategic shift is happening because NATO has shown it has no balls to get involved directly, so the Russians can now take their time. They are pulling their forces from Kiev to reinforce and consolidate their numbers in the west and to ease their well documented logistical problems (again, hardly something you can blame on Putin).

I suspect another reason for the total withdrawal of the Kiev force is that Russia is going to reverse its massed watered down BTG rollout mistake and reconstitute it’s forces into as many proper BTGs as it can cobble together, with the remaining being reconfigured back to more traditional configurations for conventional battle.

Thus we should actually see the Russians start to fight more competently and coherently, with proper BTGs doing BTG stuff of spearheading breakthrough manoeuvre attacks to cut off enemy forces to form cauldrons, while the conventional army does conventional army stuff of general advance under massed artillery fire to annihilate the Ukrainian forces thus trapped.

It will be a much slower and ‘boring’ grind in that I would expect the Reddit live updates to start drying up as they run out of stuff they want to film and upload, and/or the people doing the filming and uploading start to get systematically annihilated by the Russians. But that’s the kind of stuff the Russians excel at.
The best post on this subject in this forum so far!
 

Jingle Bells

Junior Member
Registered Member
I don't think Russia will want to go for any more population centres until they've killed or captured most of the Ukrainian army. Like in Mariupol capturing cities diverts a lot of soldiers away from the front line.

Wipe out the main force in a battle then take the rest of the country.
You can go find the official Taiwanese stand, as well as what their education system tells them about ethnicity.
There are NO ethnicity in Taiwan called the "Taiwanese" ethnicity. The majority ethnicity in Taiwan is “漢人”(Han People), the minority ethnicities in Taiwan consists of minority ethnicity migrated from Mainland (for example, Hui ethnicity, 回族), and aboriginal minority ethnicities in Taiwan (臺灣原住民族,including Amis,阿美族,Paiwan,排湾族, etc.)
 

Richard Santos

Captain
Registered Member
Really?? I thought it was be better to destory all those rails and reinforcements if they can.

Maybe they can't ?

Time will tell I guess. Hope it doesn't turn into a debacle like the northern front.
destroying rail from the air is an almost impossible task unless one could destroy choke points such as bridges or tunnels. That’s because damaged rail can often be repaired for less effort than the sorties required to damage it. It is not clear to me how many railway bridges there are in ukraine west of Dneiper. I certainly think there are very few railway tunnels in north, north east and eastern ukraine.

To actually halt rail transport from the air in this circumstances it requires a sustained weeks long effort against rolling stock and particularly locomotives.

If russia isn’t mounting a sustained close support air operation, a sustained operation against rail seems not in the cards.

one other thing that seems evident from russian performance up to now is russia seems to have either poor general real-time surveillance of enemy ground movements, or poor general communication that effect timeliness of command and control in reaction to new data. For example i wonder if they have airborne SA radar surveillance capability that can provide real time data on vehicle and rail movements inside ukraine that the US used effectively during the first gulf war.

if russia does not have real time surveillance of ukrainian rail network, sending the few sorties the russians seem willing to fly over ukraine to go looking for trains on ukrainian rail net is probably not a winning proposition.
 
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Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
destroying rail from the air is an almost impossible task unless one could destroy choke points such as bridges or tunnels. That’s because damaged rail can often be repaired for less effort than the sorties required to damage it. It is not clear to me how many railway bridges there are in ukraine west of Dneiper. I certainly think there are no railway tunnels in north, north east and eastern ukraine.

To actually halt rail transport from the air in this circumstances it requires a sustained weeks long effort against rolling stock and particularly locomotives.

If russia isn’t mounting a sustained close support air operation, a sustained operation against rail seems not in the cards.
Probably that both sides want to keep the rail systems in order for now. We have seen reinforcement by rail from Russia and Crimea too.
 
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