Ukrainian War Developments

drowingfish said:

at this point russia will have to get much more than a land-bridge to not look like they have lost the war.

once the donbass salient is cutoff and destroyed, putin will have to decide how far north he can go from there. maybe to kharkov? also depends on how quickly ukraine can form a second line of defence.

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I do not believe that they will do anything beyond encircling Kharkiv or Sumy... You've got to know when to hold 'em...

plawolf said:

Did Russia risk WWIII when they flew paratroopers into Belgrade at the end of the Kosovo war?

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You mean after 1 day after Kosovo war ended? We are talking about 'escalate to de-escalate' a fresh war in Ukraine that may result in Nuclear WW3, not post-war peacekeeper squabbles.

plawolf said:

5K troops would not be anywhere near enough to stop the Russians in a fight, but what happens if a unit of NATO troops just stood in the way of a major Russian advance and refused to move? Are the Russians going to open fire first on NATO troops flying NATO colours?

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Russia may use tactical nuke against NATO troops, what will NATO do? Are the NATO forces going to retailate with nuclear strike against Russian troops? Where does this hypothetical end up? Nuclear WW3. There is no indication that NATO was willing to go nuclear WW3 over Ukraine.

plawolf said:

Also, given the absolute chaos that is the Biden Presidency and the mess of conflicting interests that is NATO, could anyone guarantee there couldn’t have been a tail wagging the dog situation where an US underlying forced the issue by make a call out in the field or a rabidly anti-Russian power like Lithuania or Poland might have taken things into their own hands?

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This is why Russian Intelligence Agencies exist, to gather options on a gradient scale of likelihood and present this to Putin. If Putin got fed info that NATO intervention was highly likely, then he should have issued nuclear threats to NATO leading up to the invasion, but he didn't, because it was not necessary.

Russia only mobilized nuclear armaments on high alert one week after the invasion, which suggest he didn't believe NATO intervention was likely leading up to the invasion.

plawolf said:

Given the colossal costs and consequences, what degree of risk would you have been willing to bet that it won’t happen to take no precautions or safeguards?

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The fact that Russia only put it's nuclear force on high alert one week after invasion (progress slow, NATO getting hardon with aid), suggest it did not view NATO intervention as a risk leading up to invasion, but viewed potential NATO involvement after the invasion. Russia would have put nuclear force on high alert if the risk of NATO intervention was high before the invasion, not send an overrushed, undermanned, and undersupplied force to surround Kiev to pre-empt a non-existent threat of NATO involvement.

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drowingfish said:

at this point russia will have to get much more than a land-bridge to not look like they have lost the war.

once the donbass salient is cutoff and destroyed, putin will have to decide how far north he can go from there. maybe to kharkov? also depends on how quickly ukraine can form a second line of defence.

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I don't think Russia will want to go for any more population centres until they've killed or captured most of the Ukrainian army. Like in Mariupol capturing cities diverts a lot of soldiers away from the front line.

Wipe out the main force in a battle then take the rest of the country.

Abominable said:

Ukranian isn't any ethnicity any more than being east German or South Vietnamese is, or Taiwanese. You can't commit genocide against a political ideology. Were all east Germans genocided when Germany reunified?

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Calling it genocide might be a bit of a stretch, but what we can't deny is the author is calling for wiping out the identity of Ukraine and reeducating everyone in Ukraine to their own values. Its definitely looks like colonialism.

FairAndUnbiased said:

there's some things that Russia outright can't make but need like LHDs. they were even willing to import from France so why not China?

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This is not true.

They already laid down two LHD vessels.
This is not exactly a secret.
President Putin was at the laying down ceremony, and it was widely covered across the internet.
No excuse in this modern day when this information is widely available to everyone at the click of a button...

plawolf said:

Are there any evidence or witness testimony to support any of these suggestions, or are we just trying out different plausible scenarios to see if anything sticks? Because some of the above and from before are self contradictory. Was it deliberately planned cold blooded massacres or just wonton drive-by cruelty? Bodies littering the street suggest haste, yet they had time to tie hands and dig mass graves?

Speaking of witness testimony, it’s curious there has been no first hand accounts of Russian atrocities and war crimes from liberated locals yet isn’t it?

You’d think they would be rushing out with tearful tales soon after the first Ukraine units went in if the Russians did all the horrors being accrued of them.

Also funny no one managed to escape as all this was happening with word of all these horrors as the Russians were committing them. Because that would be quite a feat of organisation, disciple and skill that seems rather at odds with how the Russians have fought the rest of this war.

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No evidence at all. The Russians withdrew on the 30th of March, as announced by the town mayor. No mention of any bodies on the streets or mass killings by anyone. Throughout the whole time period of occupation people have electricity and access to the internet, but again, no reports of mass killings.

3 days later the Ukrainian troops arrive and "find" bodies all over the streets, with many of them wearing pro-Russian armbands. I guess they forgot to take them off. One Ukrainian soldier gets caught on video asking "do I shoot anyone without a blue armband" and the answer is "yes"

In Mariupol, where actual war crimes were being committed we heard about them even when the city was under Ukrainian occupation. Civilians were fleeing complaining that Azov were shooting at them, and that they had seen many dead bodies of civilians. Then when the Russians took over there were pictures and videos of what clearly look like mutalated bodies and signs of torture.
No mention of this by the western press, it is all censored on twitter and other western social media.

This is a repeat of the Iraqi incubator baby story, or the chemical weapon attacks in Syria.

No idea what the plan is with this, they obviously won't be intervening militarily. Are they hoping to use the outrage to cut off Russian gas to Europe?

The Donbass front seems to be going well for Russia today