Ukrainian War Developments

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Botnet

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If true, another failure of Russian military discipline. Anyone who has been of the army would know that it is prohibited to feed soldiers with civilian food.
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So about 500 Russian soldiers written off. Quite a success i would say
Apparently these civilians dont even need a humanitarian corridor. They're in fact not starving, but have ample supplies! So much so that they can feed themselves for a month and poison half a thousand soldiers.
 

Weaasel

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Weaasel

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Word is there is 50k Russian and allies troops fighting in Mauripol. That’s a lot of fighters that once it’s over maybe half will be sent to the Donbas region. Also the clashes in the Donbas that occurred the past few days are small but intense clashes. The Ukrainians have repelled some Russian advancement but it’s minor. Russia is still mobilizing forces. Ukraine is said to be sending reinforcements to further strengthen the second line of defense outside the Donbas region. Both sides are mobilizing their forces for this battle. This reminds me of the follow up to the Aleppo offensives in the summer and fall of 2016.
I’m hearing 250k Russian and allies will take part in this offensive. I don’t know if that’s true. Sounds like a stretch in my mind. Could be 100-120k forces will take part. If the reports are true that there is 50k Russian and allies in the city of Mauripol then it makes sense.
It would make sense for the Russians to mobilize 250k in my opinion. The reports are that Sumy, Khariv and Mykolaiv are also targets. Sounds very ambitious but they will need to have a large force to accomplish all this. So maybe 250k is likely what’s being mobilized right now. Mauripol is taking really slow and my prediction of it falling this weekend hasn’t happened. Urban warfare is hell. Can’t imagine what the battles of Khariv is going to be like. Also this week is gonna have shitty weather in east Ukraine. I would say this offensive is going to start in two weeks the way things are going. Likely be another week for Mauripol to be cleared and to redeploy the force from Mauripol to the Donbass front.
I don't think that they will attempt to storm Kharkiv.
 

Weaasel

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Putin is sure regretting listening to anyone OR he himself insisting on a decapitation strike. The Russians are generally wondering how on Earth is it that we believed that we could scare the Ukrainians into submission by an overspeed, undermanned, under-protected, and under resourced decapitation strike.

If Putin insisted on it despite much hesitation and alternative opinion from the Ukrainian Military, then he has only himself to blame. If he received assurances from them or just a few or any of them that it could be carried out successfully, those who have such assurances will have their heads rolling.


Russia has to win decisively in Donbass to significantly salvage its reputation.
 

FADH1791

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Putin caused all this by:

  • Waging a "brother war" instead of a normal war
  • Committing pathetic numbers of troops
  • Like a clown sending the initial wave of attacks in isolated convoys farther away than its logistics could catch up (kool-aid about Ukraine surrendering)
  • Idiotic big push towards Kiev, then retreating, which gave Ukraine a massive morale boost
  • Pathetic day 0 missile/air attacks to knock out critical infrastructure and the Ukrainian Army while it was in the barracks
  • Left the Ukraine/NATO-EU border open which allowed foreign aid to come (Sun Tzu stuff here..)
  • Pathetic Russian Air involvement in the first weeks
  • Drunk his own kool-aid on Ukraine capitulating.
  • Didn't properly siege cities (not cutting off electricity/fuel/water/food)
  • Took the war like its a game and not like a serious thing
  • Etc.

The list is endless. Most of the mistakes are directly attributed to Putin and his decisions. If there is one culprit for the underperformance of the Russian military, its Mr. Putin himself. Let's see who he is going to throw under the bus for this mess.

While I am pro-Russia that doesn't mean I am blind. Its simple, Putin messed up on this war.
Yup. I’m pro Russian but I’m starting to think the whole sending forces into Kiev to prevent reinforcements to the east is copium from the pro Russian side. Because if you have total aerial dominance you wouldn’t have to worry about reinforcements going to the eastern fronts. Your aerial assets would blow them up. In short Russia should have went all out. Two weeks of intense aerial and artillery bombardment to destroy Ukraine’s critical military and civilian infrastructure. Then send ground troops to finish the job. Now they have time to change tactics and it’s looks like they are doing this. However Russia really underestimated the Ukrainian will to fight. People can say why are the Ukrainians fighting hard when their govt is corrupt. Well every govt is corrupt but if a foreign army is invading your country you would fight hard. It’s about nationalism and pride. Russia didn’t realize that for 7 years Ukrainian nationalism got stronger because of the Maidan protest, the lost of Crimea and the Donbas war. Russia really has to go all out in this second phase. If the reports are true that 250k Russia and allies are mobilized then that is the step in the right direction. However I’ll believe it when I see it. The retreat from Kiev looks like Gallipoli. A fucking disaster.
Putin should just let the military do their job and not put constraints on them. I can bet you a bunch of Russian generals are pissed at how this war was planned and executed.
 

RottenPanzer

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It's seams that the Flanker was a single seater and this will the first Su35 shot down of the war in Ukraine (the first ever anywhere else in the world )
How do we know this is an SU-35? This could be SU-27SM3 or SM2, which i need to remind you that also a single seat fighter


Meanwhile the heroic Ukranian farmer brigade is continuing doing is job.
What could you possibly ask for more
This just indicates that Ukrainians has lost most of their recovery vehicle and opted to use farming tools to tow military vehicles
 

Coalescence

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Putin should just let the military do their job and not put constraints on them. I can bet you a bunch of Russian generals are pissed at how this war was planned and executed.
Agreed with your points, and I think a shift seems to be happening now, as negotiations broke down after the attack on Belgorod. Could it be that Putin kept insisting in negotiations before because he thought that he's working from a position of strength, and that the Ukraine could be capitulating? If so, I think its incredibly naïve.
 
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