From a Russian telegram channel (i.e. unverified)
Ukraine is fxxked if this turns out to be true.
Ukrainian War Developments
- Thread starter james smith esq
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If it turns out to be true and info comes out, I hope wherever Zelenski is hiding gets the Kalibr treatment
Russian MoD has mentioned some air battles with Ukrainian fighter jets, including one which had 4x Su-27S shot down. In a separate encounter, there was also a VKS Su-35S pilot awarded for taking down 2x VSU Su-27S. Whether you want to take these claims at face value or not is up to you, as there is no visual confirmation of these air battles taking place so far. But there are Su-27S wreckages seen on the ground, and it's not unimaginable that VSU would have at least tried to intercept Russian aircraft using their most capable fighters (which would be outmatched by their VKS counterparts ofc)
I suspect Russia wants to drive a good percentage of Ukraine’s population out of ukraine as refugees. This is why they have not and will not close the western border of ukraine.
Russia’s conduct around built up areas of ukraine suggest to me they are not so much there to attempt to take the cities, but to simply fight over them so as to make them unfit for civilian occupation. This will dislocate the most highly educated and productive of ukraine’s population, turn them into a homeless population of refugees. the destruction of these built up areas will also destroy the postwar economic foundation of ukraine, giving these tefugees nothing to return to comparable to their prewar standard of living.
Yes, a fraction of the dispossessed will turn into a hardened insurgents or join what is left of ukraine’s armed forces to make the russians pay for this. but a much larger percentage will likely simply seek to escape ukraine by emigrating as refugees because they can see the destruction the dispossessed them would also leave few economic opportunities for them to look forward to after the war. very small percentage of these refugee emigres, once they settle in europe or elsewhere, would ever return. So the result is any post war ukraine will be deprived of much of its educated and skilled classes.
So basically russia, having failed to quickly topple the government of ukraine in a cou de main and thus convert an intact ukraine into a client state, seems now settled on the strategy of essentially destroying the infrastructure and demographic fabric of ukraine to prevent it from being able to survive or revive as an effective independent state that has the wherewithal to threaten russia’s interests through collaboration with russia’s enemies.
If i am right, then This is no longer a relatively clean war of shadow boxing between armies. It is turned into a war of ethnic cleansing by a different name, similar to how WWII was fought on the eastern front, and how the european wars of the age of reformation between 16-17th centuries were fought. the purpose of the war is no longer to achieve a narrow political objective, but to fundamentally alter the demographics to achieve long term geopolitical objectives.
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You haven't learn too much game theory, I presume.
Would be interesting to calculate the payout matrix for different Russian strategies, including attack on all European countries, untile they reach the Atlantic ocean for proper warm water ports .
What? Surely you mean European countries.
Maybe the Russians were never serious about taking Kyiv anyway. It was just a feint to prevent the Ukranians sending reinforcements Eastward
What is now the political objective for Russia? A partial peace is unacceptable for something of this magnitude.
The currency is rebounding because Russia is enforcing Petro-ruble by pegging oil/gas to gold using a paper proxy (ruble).
It's not because it's pegged to gold, it's because Russia is forcing countries to buy oil/gas using ruble.
He is very smart
"ZELENSKIY SAYS RUSSIA AIMS TO SEIZE ALL THE EAST AND SOUTH OF UKRAINE -RTRS"
"ZELENSKIY SAYS RUSSIA AIMS TO SEIZE ALL THE EAST AND SOUTH OF UKRAINE -RTRS"
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