Ukrainian War Developments

reservior dogs said:

air If the West does not send soldiers to fight, time is on the side of Moscow. As time goes on, one by one, the most economically vibrant cities fall into the hands of the pro Russian side. Emotion may run high for Western Ukraine and Kiev, but the goal of Russia is to defang Ukraine. Hopefully, Ukraine comes to their senses and sign the agreement to disarm, if not, Russia takes more cities until they have all the big cities along the Russian border and all of the coast. Once that happens, if Ukraine still does not agree, they can then storm Kiev. As long as Russia can sustain this tempo of war for many months, maybe even a year, Ukraine will run out of everything. The likelihood of a good outcome for Moscow is very high.

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1 year ? no Russia cannot sustain these kinds of loses for much longer

at most they will take the border areas and control Sea of Azov

they wont cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea and wont take Kiev and install a puppet government

these were some of the objectives

I would say allowing Ukraine to export wheat from Black Sea is a considered huge failure on the part of Russia

their attempt to do a amphibious landing at Odessa also did not happen and they never managed to push past Mykolaiv

asif iqbal said:

1 year ? no Russia cannot sustain these kinds of loses for much longer

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Nothing indicts that the loses are high. especially what Ukrainians are claiming. Which would indicate destruction of 1/3 of th russian forces. Which i wouldn't have to tell you what that meant.

asif iqbal said:

I would say allowing Ukraine to export wheat from Black Sea is a considered huge failure on the part of Russia

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How, the entire place has been mined.

Darkon112 said:

Nothing indicts that the loses are high. especially what Ukrainians are claiming. Which would indicate destruction of 1/3 of th russian forces. Which i wouldn't have to tell you what that meant.


how, the entire place has ben mined.

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do you want me to post every photo of destroyed Russian armour with V on it?

Another humanitarian aid in Mariupol from Chechnya. Video from the head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov :

Chechen special forces soldiers rescued their wounded comrade from enemy fire :

asif iqbal said:

do you want me to post every photo of destroyed Russian armour with V on it?

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Seeing as a lot of shots could be taken from other angles. And its not out of the question Ukrainians painting Z and V on everything's that has wheels and tracks on it. Like i said if Russians lost as much as the claim make it out to be. Ukrainians would have them out of the entire Ukraine by now.

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Zichan said:

That makes zero sense. Their numbers went up not down. The plan spearheaded by Zelensky was to eventually grow the Ukranian army to 360,000 strong.

According to this source, the total army size at the start of the war was very close to 200,000 regulars, of which 125,000 ground forces and another 100,000 paramilitaries:

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Since the invasion began, they've been able to mobilize 150,000 troops, possibly more. At this point, they noticeably outnumber the Russian forces in Ukraine.

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Those numbers what ever Ukraine had in mind were created at time when EU was a wealthy continent (that itself debatable the definition of wealthy) and foreigners were doing all the work to run Ukraine economy.
I have doubt now EU will support this misallocation of funds which benefitted countries like Turkey (Construction contracts, drones sales).

how Ukraine with such small GDP and outward emigration could enroll 80K international students unless those universities are funded from outside and most of them located in East.

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• The top Ukrainian university with the most international students is Kharkiv National Medical University, with 4,355 enrollments.
• There were 4,351 foreign students enrolled in V.N. Karazin Kharkiv National University, making it the second university with the highest number of international students.
• Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv is ranked last among the most popular universities for international students in Ukraine, with 1,849 students in total.

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sferrin said:

GPS is independent of range. I've seen photos of AGM-86s hitting traffic cones after flying thousands of kms. Also fairly certain Russia hasn't fired more than the US.

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i was referring to reliability of missiles to travel such distance consistently from various ground and sea based platforms. i think ground based platform missiles are heavier and more expensive than lighter missiles from air platforms.
It surely more than US in such compressed period when looking at ground and sea platforms alone.

sferrin said:

The thing that has surprised me is it's almost as if both air forces are virtually non-existant.

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its special operation not a war.

asif iqbal said:

do you want me to post every photo of destroyed Russian armour with V on it?

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You seriously believe that the Russians have lost anything as close in term of personnel that the Ukrainians claim. Would you believe the Russian claims about the Ukrainians too?

asif iqbal said:

do you want me to post every photo of destroyed Russian armour with V on it?

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Please, don't. Squabbles are not going to be resolved here by posting petty spam.

Quick and dirty as I had planned to do a longer post at the end of week 6:

based on equipment lost the russians have lost over 14 full BTGs worth of fighting equipment and 8 tank battalions.

This is 11% of the BTG and IDK how much of the tank battalions since no one has a good source on those independent units. Probably these are just tanks in BTGs, but the APC+IFVs losts have been lower percentage wise.

The tank losses appear to be 30% of the tanks of original 130 BTG that were supposed to have been massed before the attack.

The APC+IFV losses are about 11%.

The guessimated KIA based on the above and the MT-LBs(*) is 3200 russian soldiers. That gives a wounded with the 3:1 ratio of 9600.

That gives a figure of 16 full BTG's worth of casualties. Almost 1/8th the BTG original force.

This is a guessimate not a hard number. Better than a guess, but worse than a solid estimate. This completely neglects losses by the infantry on the ground and historically that's been higher that I am estimating. This is also neglecting the losses to the logistics and rear echelon soldiers.

11% is not the end of the war, folks. Old Soviet (not up to date on Russian) doctrine stated units could lose up to 40% before being considered combat ineffective. If that's still the case, we are looking at 4x what we have seen now before the Russians are exhausted.

The date for that? July 27, 2022 more or less. Hey, July, that month sounds, really, really familiar. hmm. gawd, I hope that's not confirmation bias.

But that is with their current forces with no reinforcements!

We know the Russians have reinforced.

The Ukrainians have given a very good bloody nose to the Russians. However, unless Russia is secretly a hemophiliac, a bloody nose won't kill them.

This war isn't over.

Not even close.



*. Two bits on the MT-LBs. They can carry a lot of troops, but what role they were in when lost could adjust down KIA by a bit. Also, weirdly, losses of MT-LBs being reported as been stagnant for about a week. I found that rather interesting.

There's a story circulating - coming from the Ukrainians - that the Russians were fed poisoned treats by the inhabitants of Izium and hundreds of them have been hospitalized as a result.

I have not seen or heard of any confirmation of that story from the Russians.