Ukrainian War Developments

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FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
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Nah, Georgia was far weaker - Iraq still had a relatively large military despite being drained from the war with Iran. I'd say Ukraine is a closer comparison to Iraq, maybe slightly stronger (relative to Russia-Ukraine, not in absolute terms) but they are definitely nowhere as strong as Imperial Japan was at that time, lol. Imperial Japan was short on resources and overstretched on multiple fronts, which led to its downfall.
Ukraine: 1/4 Russia population 1/8 Russia GDP
Imperial Japan: 1/2 US population 1/5 US GDP

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So a bit weaker than Imperial Japan but not by much
 

WickedhichofWest

New Member
Registered Member
The BBC are notoriously and virulently anti-Russian.
They have been for years.
Just as they have been against China.
This is well known by now.

They are a worthless source if one wants to get to the truth.

Anybody relying on the BBC to get the truth needs their head examined.
What would you expect of the British Broadcasting Corporation!!
At least they can't help being honest about it.
 

4Runner

Junior Member
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David P Glodman is part of Spengler at Asia Times. This is a good read for a Saturday brunch on the war. And its angle of time vs objective echoes my thesis that "time is on Putin's side and he is winning as long as he holds his hand".
 

Zichan

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This article is interesting, the author posit that Russia didn't send a lot of troops that Western analyst and media claims, and that they only sent 50-60 BTGs which is around 50k-60k troops for the entire operation. Can anyone verify the claim?
Just one thing to keep in mind: Saker is as pro Russia and anti-West as FoxNews is pro Trump and anti-Democrats. Probably even more so.

But that map is really interesting work. I'm missing the "time travel" feature. Hopefully they'll add it as time goes by. After inspecting the database, the oldest entry is from just 4 days ago. Therefore, Saker's claims of only 50-60 BTGs in the initial invasion is not substantiated by this source at all.

The author only uses visually verified data, as far as I can understand. Obviously, he is not privy to the intelligence available to NATO. According to the Pentagon, Russia amassed a force 190,000 strong including the Donbass separatists at the eve of the invasion.

To claim that Russia invaded a country the size of Ukraine with less than 60k troops from 5 different directions and going against 200,000 regulars and 100,000 paramilitaries is ridiculous beyond the absurd.

I think he's just overdosing on Copium.
 
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Michaelsinodef

Senior Member
Registered Member
Ukraine is an impoverished nation. It can't support 200,000 soldiers. It is an American exaggeration. In 2014 Ukraine army had 50,000 soldiers. 20,000 tops is likely. Soldiers are expensive.
They have been expanding their military since 2014 though.

Altough chances are they still didn't have 200k before the invasion though (although way more than 20k or 50k, like there were ~20k in mariupol? and like ~60k in donbas region at least).
 

Zichan

Junior Member
Registered Member
Ukraine is an impoverished nation. It can't support 200,000 soldiers. It is an American exaggeration. In 2014 Ukraine army had 50,000 soldiers. 20,000 tops at the beginning of the Russia invasion is likely. Soldiers are expensive.
That makes zero sense. Their numbers went up not down. The plan spearheaded by Zelensky was to eventually grow the Ukranian army to 360,000 strong.

According to this source, the total army size at the start of the war was very close to 200,000 regulars, of which 125,000 ground forces and another 100,000 paramilitaries:
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Since the invasion began, they've been able to mobilize 150,000 troops, possibly more. At this point, they noticeably outnumber the Russian forces in Ukraine.
 

reservior dogs

Junior Member
Registered Member
Recent events changed my take on this conflict. Russia is giving up on the real threats on Kiev (potential taking of the capital and black sea coast) which means it gave up on regime change (denazification as they call it), too, and they say they will only focus on donbass. In addition, now, Putin says Germany/EU has until April 15 for ruble payments (two week extension which I see as backtracking). So overall, very halfhearted approach both in Ukraine and in economic/political front. To put it crudely: You go all the way or you go home. Therefore, I see Russia as the loser of this war, now. Ukraine will be die hard anti-Russia country, Russia lost a lot men, and suffered economic losses. what will they get? *maybe* recognition of Crimea :D
If the West does not send soldiers to fight, time is on the side of Moscow. As time goes on, one by one, the most economically vibrant cities fall into the hands of the pro Russian side. Emotion may run high for Western Ukraine and Kiev, but the goal of Russia is to defang Ukraine. Hopefully, Ukraine comes to their senses and sign the agreement to disarm, if not, Russia takes more cities until they have all the big cities along the Russian border and all of the coast. Once that happens, if Ukraine still does not agree, they can then storm Kiev. As long as Russia can sustain this tempo of war for many months, maybe even a year, Ukraine will run out of everything. The likelihood of a good outcome for Moscow is very high.
 
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