Ukrainian War Developments

Status
Not open for further replies.

sferrin

Junior Member
Registered Member
The amount of cruise missile they fired is way beyond anyone has done it and some of them are thousands of kms at pinpoint accuracy.
[/URL]
GPS is independent of range. I've seen photos of AGM-86s hitting traffic cones after flying thousands of kms. Also fairly certain Russia hasn't fired more than the US.

The thing that has surprised me is it's almost as if both air forces are virtually non-existant.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Large convoy of Russian Tochka ballistic missile launchers heading are being transported to border of Ukraine via Russian railway troops [Железнодорожные войска ВС России] for large scale strikes against military targets; reportedly stores of Iskander and Bastion are running increasingly low.
AFAIK Tochka is not in current Russian mainline service and most of the Tochka's I have seen pictured thus far which were not Ukrainian were Belarussian ones not used by Belarus in the conflict. Since Belarus has not been an active part in the conflict yet. Tochka is also way more inaccurate than Iskander. For the Russians to use Tochka would mean abandoning their current stance on using precision attacks against Ukraine. Those Tochkha's you have pictured do look to be sporting Russian cammo and the markers the Russians have used in this operation. So perhaps the Russians are indeed going to use their stockpiled Tochkas for the Donbass takedown operation and destruction of Ukrainian army there. The Russians should have loads of decomissioned Tochka's that would otherwise have to be dismantled rather expensively. So this would be a good way to get rid of them.

They guy who did the whole "debunked" of Oryx analysis seems received some
backlash by larger OSINT account
His "debunking" is kind of failed I think. But Oryx's numbers should be taken with a huge pinch of salt. In some cases the tanks cannot be identified positively yet Oryx still does it anyway pulling the identification out of his ass. In other cases Oryx misidentifies tanks. He has identified tanks as T-72B3M when they are just T-72B3 with Relikt side skirts for example. And forget about Oryx's numbers on Ukrainian losses altogether.

Imho i think the original objective was that the Russians would take Kiev at the opening hour of the fight and seems like the original has failed, not going to detail at the moment.
That was never an objective. If it was they wouldn't have sent just those troops. I already said here, just look at Operation Storm-333 in Afghanistan and their other operations. That is an example of Soviet military doing a decapitation attack. The troop concentration and movements in this operation look nothing like that. If the objective was decapitation of Kiev they wouldn't need to send troops into Mariupol or attack Kharkiv.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
The Russian MIC has been sanctioned from purchasing military or space grade chips from the West since 2014. These chips are so common they can't be sanctioned easily. You are talking about a communication chip that sells for $2 USD which will be used in IoT devices. Russia might need a couple hundred or thousand for their drones. Those can be easily smuggled. All of these efforts will prove futile. The Russian electronics industry does have points they can further pressure but they would get some counter pressure in return. And in the middle term, like 5 years, the Russians would either switch suppliers or make their own supplies.

The most precious chips in that photo, which they don't talk about, are those Xilinx FPGAs which seem to have been blurred out.
But even those, they fact they use 3 FPGAs mean those are the cheapest and easier to get models. Not the expensive hard to source ones. And once they do start mass manufacture of the drones they would likely be replaced with ASICs.
 
Last edited:

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
The Kiev push was a feint from the very start.
60K troops for 5 weeks in not a feint, it is a half-assed commitment.

A 'feint' is tieing down massive amounts of Odessa troops and assets to Odessa by stationing a massive naval fleet and amphibious units outside the Odessan port. Russia never moved on Odessa, but it did tie down significant forces from reinforcing other fronts. This is a feint.

The objective was to pull massive amounts of Ukrainian troops and assets to Kiev and tie them down there while the Russian military focus on the Ukrainian forces in the west.
The objective was to rapidly surround the capital (by moving beyond advanced logistical supply lines) with hopes of scaring Kiev into suing for peace and a quick negotiated settlement. When this failed, they should re-group and concentrate on Eastern region.
There was never any attempt made to attack Kiev itself,
Russia didn't start attacking Mariupol with front-line troops until it had Mariupol fully surrounded.

Russia wouldn't have started attacking Kiev proper with front-line troops until Kiev was fully surrounded... which they tried but failed surrounding Kiev.
and I would not be surprised if that infamous 40 mile long Russian column that was parked north of Kiev all these weeks were not just conscripts or even empty trucks parked there to be seen but which didn’t have anything like the combat potential as their numbers would suggest.
So you are saying the 40 mile convoy was a theatre? That's a very expensive mistake, they should have concentrated on the eastern Donbass from the very beginning instead of trying a fancy 5-axis invasion to stun/scare the enemy into quick negotiated settlement.
 
Last edited:

redion

Junior Member
Registered Member
To continue with the above discussion with the exception of Javelin and NLAW missile wich are top atack and top of the line. We are not seeing even to try to mitigate the Anti-tank missile threat with samthing wich can be compared with this
To continue and even with the BMP and the poor people inside in the modern battlefield you have to be in something in this nature
 

Strangelove

Colonel
Registered Member
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

UK won’t get Russian gas – Moscow​

Shell has London’s anti-Russia stance to thank

British energy major Shell will not be able to buy Russian gas due to London’s anti-Russia sanctions, Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of Russian President Vladimir Putin, told the media on Saturday.

London wants to be the leader of everything anti-Russian. It even wants to be ahead of Washington! That’s the cost!” Peskov outlined.
He was referring to the fact that the UK is the only country to have imposed sanctions on Russia’s Gazprombank, through which payments for Russian natural gas are made. The measure effectively denies Britain the ability to pay for the commodity.

On March 31, Putin signed a decree requiring gas buyers from “unfriendly countries” to open special ruble and foreign currency accounts with Gazprombank to pay for gas supplies. They will transfer funds in foreign currencies to Gazprombank, which will buy rubles on exchanges and transfer them to the buyers’ ruble accounts to make payments to Russia’s suppliers.


 

Topazchen

Junior Member
Registered Member
Here are the latest developments on day 37 of the invasion:
  • Ukrainian forces retaking key positions around Kyiv
  • Shelling remains ongoing in Kyiv and in Chernihiv
  • Russian troops said to be withdrawing from Chernobyl
  • Port city of Mariupol remains likely to fall to Russia soon
  • Ukrainian forces repelling Russian attacks in the Donbas
  • Russia redeploying troops to Ukraine from Georgia

point 1 they cant encircle cities Kyiv
point 2 even when they do they cant take them Chernihiv
point 3 when they turn the cities into rubble still cant fully control like Mariupol

so conclusion is Russia cannot take and hold cities

and 39 soldiers from the elite "best of the best" 331st Guards Parachute Regiment have died

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
You probably wouldn't know that Russia has taken an area larger than Great Britain by reading the BBC ,would you?
 

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
GPS is independent of range. I've seen photos of AGM-86s hitting traffic cones after flying thousands of kms. Also fairly certain Russia hasn't fired more than the US.

The thing that has surprised me is it's almost as if both air forces are virtually non-existant.
It was bad weather and cloudy this week, not good forecast for next week. If they rely on visual dumb bombing it's pretty hard to do so above manpads range.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top