Ukrainian War Developments

supersnoop said:

Crimea was a totally different scenario.
The Ukrainian government was in shambles due to the Maidan coup which represented a sudden (and constitutionally illegal) change of government from a pro-Russian to one controlled by Anti-Russian parties. Furthermore, since the Russian navy was already leasing Sevastopol, so their personnel were already there.

In the current time, the best case scenario in the Russian calculation would be collapse, but to me, I don't think they were counting on it. The signs of a willingness to wage a long resistance were pretty clear.

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Yes. Plan A was quickly enemy collapse, negotiated settlement.

Plan B was re-group, concentrate east, negotiated settlement.

Plan C is reinforce more troops, equipment, strategic bombardment.

Plan D is mass mobilization of conscript, wartime economy.

But it's quite obvious their primary Plan A didn't work out, so they Plan B is to pivot and concentrate on eastern Ukraine, which honestly should have been the plan all along. None of this fancy 5-axis attack along 2000 mile border with only 120K troops, gotta focus and concentrate.

supersnoop said:

In the big picture, I think Russia/Putin felt he was running out of time. US was continuing to pour in weapons and training. Zelensky was ready to sign on the dotted line for a number of Chinese infrastructure projects (including projects in Mariupol and Berdyansk) after pushing them away early on to try to engage with the West. If he waited any longer he risked the Ukrainian military being strong enough to sweep away the DPR and LPR, or worse, threatening Chinese economic interests which risks his only friendly relationship.

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It was perfectly time when West was pre-occupied with COVID-19 Pandemic-related supply chain, high inflation, and slow economic growth.

Not unlike how Indian army timed Galwan valley clash when China was pre-occupied with pandemic response to take advantage of Chinese weakness, but Indians got their ass-whooping by PLA. They underestimated Chinese and paid a dear price.

Putin could give ten less shit about Chinese BRI projects in Mariupol. Putin didn't even tell Chinese embassy in Kiev the exact time of invasion so Chinese citizens cannot be evacuated on timely basis, putting their lives at risk, so I don't see how Chinese investment can deter Putin. Nothing can deter him. Worse can, he can promise to reimburse China with captured Ukrainian grains or more discount oil/gas.

williamhou said:

Not really a good thing for DJI. They want to stay low and humble. Could attract hatred and even sanctions because it is considered a "military company"

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DJI are already sanctioned as a "military company", they are on the US Entity List along with Huawei and SMIC, which means no US investment or US-origin tech exports.

The only difference is DJI can point it cannot control end-use by consumers, it does not condone war, call for peace, and it's used by both sides. Worse case DJI can just ban it's drones over Ukrainian skies with a NFZ just like Syrian conflict, but that would hurt Ukraine more than Russia. In Syria, people used DJI drones with bomb-dropping mechanism, so DJI just prevented all drones from taking off in Syria. The fact US hasn't gotten pissy means Ukraine benefits more than rando Chechen using it.

Motor Sich, enquiring about the Bayraktar Akıncı UCAV. Interesting question no. 9...

"The document dated December, 15, 2021 presents a response to request from Ukrainian Motor Sich company to the Turkish drone manufacturer Baykar Makina" -

Phead128 said:

Yes. Plan A was quickly enemy collapse, negotiated settlement.

Plan B was re-group, concentrate east, negotiated settlement.

Plan C is reinforce more troops, equipment, strategic bombardment.

Plan D is mass mobilization of conscript, wartime economy.

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Lets hope it doesn't get to plan Z....

Maybe the "stages" were something like that. According to one Russian telegram, stage 2 is about to start:

"The Russian army is preparing for the largest military operation since the Second World War."

Russian troops, as well as units of the DPR and LPR, moving towards each other from the north , east and south , will soon have to close a huge cauldron , in which there will be a 50,000-strong Donbass grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. These are the most trained units of the Ukrainian army - they have been in the combat zone since 2014, they are well trained and fortified.

Following the results of the first stage of the special operation managed to force the enemy to concentrate forces around Kyiv and Chernigov. Thanks to this, the Donbas grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was left without an influx of fresh resources from the west and from the center of Ukraine.

Just shows how far the Ukrainians have come since 2014 when they simply laid down their arms

now they are hitting Russians in Russia

1st time since the Korean war Russia was attacked and only 3rd time since WWII

Russia has clearly lost this war by a huge margin

even if they encircled the city like Mariupol and level it they still can’t take the whole city

what chance does Russia have to take Kiev next to zero

The Brits are now stating there was a reported explosion at an ammo dump in Belgorod as well as the fuel tanks. I have significant doubts due to the fact it would have been far more spectacular than the fuel hit and there ought to have been at least one video of the kaboom.

Is there any independent corroboration?

anzha said:

Ukrainian inventory and losses are absolute junk online. We have no real idea of what is happening.

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If only there was another country who could potentially take over these roles. Oh, what possible country could this be?

TBF, it won't happen overnight as new facilities will need to be created, but...

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i am not sure its worth reporting. as every one is squeezing Europe. who will want to refuel at over inflated prices. not even truck drivers let alone ships.

China basically just ignored the EU asked the EU to have independent foreign policies.

In a press conference after the call, Ms. von der Leyen said, “We exchanged very clearly opposing views...China has an influence on Russia. And therefore we expect China to take its responsibility to end this war” by pushing Russia toward a peaceful solution.

Ms. von der Leyen warned that China would suffer “major reputational damage” among the European public and business community if it stayed on the fence or sided with Moscow over Ukraine, saying that “equidistance is not enough.”

Unsure of the veracity of the claim:

asif iqbal said:

Just shows how far the Ukrainians have come since 2014 when they simply laid down their arms

now they are hitting Russians in Russia

1st time since the Korean war Russia was attacked and only 3rd time since WWII

Russia has clearly lost this war by a huge margin

even if they encircled the city like Mariupol and level it they still can’t take the whole city

what chance does Russia have to take Kiev next to zero

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If you are referring to the Russian fuel depot, it is embarrassing but no big deal.