Ukrainian War Developments

There's video of a mi28 being shot down

Atomicfrog said:

But with the new helo attack in Belgorov and the change in Ukrainians aggressiveness in rescents days are maybe caused by some changes of commanding officers.

We see counter push a bit everywhere in the news and that Mi-24 attack was certainly well prepared. It's a bit late and could bring Ukrainians troops in dire situations like in Kherson. Still they have been able to kept some air power. The Mariupol rescue effort is astonishing risky but they still tried to do it.

It look like something changed, don't know if it's despair or if they have waited for the Russian troops to be weary before moving but maybe we will see more cohesive troops movements from the Ukraine side soon.

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Zelensky fired a bunch of generals who he deemed as “traitors.” It’s likely they were telling him the reality on the ground and not what he wanted to hear. Probably replaced them with true believers and aggressive generals to take the fight to Russian positions. Another could be he is facing heat from the ultranationalist neo nazis for the failure to save their brethren in Mauripol.

memfisa said:

Is there an example in recent modern history of the Chinese military demonstrating competency vs a peer level adversary? I'm not really well versed with Chinese military history, not anything like i am with NATO and Russian.

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Pushing unnamed galactic hyperpower and South Korea back from Chinese borders and restoring North Korean sovereignty in 1950 Korean War. Crushing India in 1962. Crushing the Vietnamese Navy in 1988.

1979 against Vietnam on the ground was a more mixed story.

You think Russia is Iraq that would accept EU not paying and still continuing to provide oil and gas.

Topazchen said:

I wonder how long it would have taken the competent armies or NATO and China to capture Ukraine ceteris paribus .Two weeks ?

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They had failed in Afghanistan after 20 years. Saudi Arabia with coalition and US support had spent 7 years in Yemen. It really depend on how much resiletnt you opponent and how much support he has.

Wars are not easy. And Russia definitely do not have economic capability(and it is pointless) to take whole Ukraine. And definitely did not planned to take Kiev. IMHO it was gamble to get fast results from negotiations, which failed due to Kiev being stubborn.

Taking DNR/LNR with South while using Dnepr as blocker from possible counter offensive is possible. And with neutral status forced on what have left from Ukraine is acceptable result.

Today, two Ukrainian MI-24 helicopters flew into Russian airspace and attacked an oil depot in Belgorod. It was difficult to spot the helicopters because they were flying at an ultra-low altitude, the oil storage was hit by unguided S-8 missiles. Strong fire breaks out at oil depot in Belgorod


Uran-6 robots delivered by Russia to Ukraine. Robot "Uran-6" - an armored robotic tracked vehicle, began to destroy mines and other explosive objects in Ukraine and Donbass, without endangering the life and health of people. Despite its size, Uran-6 is capable of towing even a 40-ton tank. The main task of the sapper robot is to make passages in minefields and quickly clear mine areas. The cleanliness of minesweeping is about 95%.


Continuous fire from RPGs on the Armed Forces of Ukraine was carried out by Russian fighters of the unit of the National Guard of the Chechen Republic

FairAndUnbiased said:

There's no country in NATO other than the unnamed galactic hyperpower that could take Ukraine. They ran out of missiles against Libya which is flat desert, highly concentrated in cities and has far smaller population.

China overran parts of occupied Korea in a few months at great cost which has less population and size than Ukraine. Same with Vietnam.

It is very hard to fight an entrenched enemy in cover that doesn't surrender. Why do you think unnamed galactic hyperpower doesn't touch Iran despite threatening them for 40+ years? Because they know that they don't have the capability to take cities from the Iranians without leveling them if they fought anywhere close to how they fought in the Iran Iraq war, and leveling them would require massive resources that would weaken them elsewhere.

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I think this is why the objective was never clear to begin with. I don't think for a minute that Russia believed that Ukraine would give up and let them stroll in. I mean even on this forum there were reposts from social media about how the morale of the Ukrainian military was at an all time high due to TB-2, NATO training, Javelins, and probable American support will likely to try to roll the separatists. This was back in November or so even before there was any build up in Russia.

To me, I think Russia was going to take what they could get, then figure the rest out later. This East will still be disputed, NATO will unlikely put any bases in Ukraine proper now, and the Ukrainian government and economy is devastated still.

Atomicfrog said:

Maybe they are turning radar on when NATO AWAC tell them to do so to diminish the chance of SEAD attacks ? Tiny quad copter drones spotting for artillery are probably impervious to most radar when they are staying still. In any case they got destroyed.

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Maybe, but the footage doesn't look like from a commercial quad, looks more like from a Orion.... I could be wrong, the way I tell is high quality footage = civilian quad, low quality grainy 80s TV footage = actual Russian drones

Also from the speed the point of view changes indicates a higher speed than quad drone can achieve, more like a fixed wing drone.

Edit: I was not shitting on Russian drone either, civilian drone does a lot of digital post processing to "clean up" their image, military drones won't do that

memfisa said:

I think this weekend is going to mark the beginning of a pretty major escalation in fighting in Ukraine. Once mariupol is done with,

With the number of troops left in Mariupol, what is the point of sending less than half a dozen helo's to "rescue" anyone" Who are they are so desperate to rescue there? What can an Mi8 carry, 12-20 men?

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The rumor is there's foreign special forces trapped there.

Atomicfrog said:

Maybe they are turning radar on when NATO AWAC tell them to do so to diminish the chance of SEAD attacks ? Tiny quad copter drones spotting for artillery are probably impervious to most radar when they are staying still. In any case they got destroyed.

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Most drones used by Russians seem to be Orlan-10s, you can tell when the footage is low quality. They did use the decoy drones (which I thought were brilliant), but I guess NATO figured them out.

The DJIs seem to be used by Chechens and Donbass militia, and in much smaller numbers than the Ukrainians.