Ukrainian War Developments

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Stealthflanker

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Fly them where ? 2 or 3 apc/ifv at a time ? Common... It would take even longer than by boat. Ukrainians have 7 An-124, don't know how many can fly, how many are stuck in Ukraine or destroyed. No spare available. Pipe dream.
Assuming they really send it.

You want them fast. then fly the AN-124. Otherwise. Channel strait tunnel. where the armored vehicles are loaded onto train and head to EU that way. Now. British did send Tanks to continental Europe that way. Shipping might be good to carry many goods, but you should not forget the railway.

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Atomicfrog

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Assuming they really send it.

You want them fast. then fly the AN-124. Otherwise. Channel strait tunnel. where the armored vehicles are loaded onto train and head to EU that way. Now. British did send Tanks to continental Europe that way. Shipping might be good to carry many goods, but you should not forget the railway.

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Yep, rail would do the thing but i would not see them coming before a month at the front line in western Ukraine... probably more.
 

Jingle Bells

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Suck it up loser.
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Mar 31, 2022,06:15am EDT|303 views
Chinese Drones Come With Political Baggage But Ukraine Buys Thousands Anyway
Thomas Brewster

Associate editor at Forbes, covering cybercrime, privacy, security and surveillance.

The unmanned aerial vehicles are too valuable against Russian invaders for Ukrainians to be all that concerned about whether manufacturer DJI has close ties to the Chinese government.

Drones made by DJI, a $15 billion Chinese company, have become such an important part of Ukraine’s resistance to Russia’s unprovoked invasion that officials in the besieged country are setting aside concerns about the considerable political baggage that comes with them.

Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister and chief of the Ministry of Digital Transformation, who has become something of a media star in the last month for his ingenuity and defiance in the face of overwhelming odds, posted photos on Monday of new DJI Mavic 3 unmanned aerial vehicles in what looks like the back of a van.

Federov said Ukraine had bought 2,372 quadcopters and 11 military unmanned aerial vehicles for $6.8 million. The money was donated by the Come Back Alive fund, which has been accepting donations for the defense of Ukraine since Russia’s 2014 invasion and annexation of Crimea.

China hasn’t chosen sides on the war in Ukraine and has refused to condemn the slaughter of civilians ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin. That’s put DJI and its billionaire owner, Frank Wang, in a bind. The company insists its drones are not intended for military use despite all the evidence to the contrary.

“We do not support any use of our products that harm people’s lives, rights, or interests, as we have always reiterated in our products’ Terms of Use and other public statements,” said a DJI spokesperson. “We do not provide technical support when our products are used for military purposes.”

Ukrainians are also sensitive to the charges, true or not, that DJI is under the influence of the Chinese Communist Party and could be collecting data on the use of its drones. “Every Chinese firm [is] under the Chinese government,” said the spokesperson for a unit supporting the Ukraine military called Aerorozvidka, which uses drones. “We use them but we’re not going to make any ads for DJI.”

DJI has been accused before of having a chummy relationship with Beijing and has long brushed off those worries. It denies its drones send data to the Chinese government and stresses that users can turn off internet settings to stop information going anywhere. DJI has also had to fend off claims that its technology was used to support human rights abuses. The U.S. put the company on an export control list in December, implicating DJI in the persecution of China’s Uyghur minority. Americans were barred from trading in the company’s securities, a year after DJI was barred from buying U.S. technology. DJI has previously said it’s done nothing to justify the U.S. actions.

Ukraine Armed Forces using DJI drones.
The Ukraine Armed Forces has been open about its use of DJI drones. It's likely they're being used for aerial surveillance across Ukraine. UKRAINE ARMED FORCES
Fedorov’s office declined to comment on how the drones were used. The Ukrainian military didn’t immediately respond to requests for an explanation.

“DJI promotes civilian drone applications that benefit society,” a DJI spokesperson said. “In addition to bringing new tools to aerial photographers and filmmakers, we see more and more firefighters, search-and-rescue teams, and other public-safety agencies around the world using our products to save lives.”

Earlier this month, Ukraine’s Fedorov called on DJI to shut down Russia’s use of drone-detection technology known as an AeroScope and to provide any information, such as the location and owner, of any Russian drones in Ukraine. DJI said it couldn’t do that, adding that it was possible it could shut down all of its tech in given geographies, but the action would affect Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles, too. It also denied an accusation that it was actively degrading the operability of DJI technology being used by Ukrainians.

As Victor Zhora, deputy head of Ukraine’s State Service for Special Communications and Information Protection, told Forbes, that while the government does have concerns about DJI’s links to China, “it’s a complex issue.” Zhora didn’t immediately respond to requests to elaborate on his earlier comments.

Whatever DJI’s policies, and regardless of concerns around its relationship with the Chinese government, it isn’t stopping Ukraine from acquiring the company’s devices to support its defense against Russian invaders, dragging DJI into the conflict whether it likes it or not.
I'm loving their sore loser attitude.
In Chinese: 咱就喜欢看到你恨咱恨得牙痒痒,却又拿咱没办法的样子,嘿嘿 !(I love seeing you Anglo-Muricans' grinding-your-teeth-pissed-off at us, but can't do ANYTHING about it to us. hehe!)
 

Helius

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[snip]

Granted it wouldn't be as precise, but the flak rounds would take them out just the same. [snip]
There is a general misconception thanks to Hollywood that all guns are precision sniper rifles. In reality, different guns have different accuracy levels, and anti-aircraft guns are not precise by design.

[snip]

Alright, first off, it's a bit odd you took all that I said yet still came to conclude that I assumed the opposite.

But anyway, let's address what we have here -
[snip]

The general principle with small cal AA guns is that you throw rounds in a spread pattern tight enough to be aimed effectively, but loose enough that your rounds cover a much bigger area at the intended optimal engagement range to maximise your hit chance while still achieving enough hits to have a reasonable chance to bringing down aircraft.

Nothing wrong with this statement, though it should be noted this only covers a part of what modern AA guns do and reflects more on the conventional thinking of "spray-and-pray" and "hardkill" approach that's prevalent in both Western and Soviet/Russian doctrines on close-in air defence which, ironically, is very much a Hollywood-inspired notion.

A good example, of course, would be the Vulcan-equipped Phalanx. It's not a "precise" weapon not because it's by design, but because of what that weapon inherently does, as you're shooting a linear projectile against a non-linear target that's wholly determined by relative velocities and angles of approach, and the physical limits of the delivery platform and the payload themselves.

You might think it's semantics, but they don't "design" a multi-barrel gun that fires 4,500rpm to destroy an incoming target. It's what it would take to destroy an incoming target, and it still won't be as precise as a RAM, which precisely(!) turns this argument on its head because why would you then make such less effective weapon still?

Cost-effectiveness.

But that's not nearly the point.

The issue is the vast size discrepancy between dronesand manned aircraft.

A good analogy would be clay pigeon shooting.

You can be a world champion shooter and can hit 99.9% of clays, but your kill rate is still going to approximate zero if you were asked to shoot at flies with your shotgun at the same range as you normally shoot clays.

The other aspect that makes it worthwhile using missiles rather than taking pot shots with AA guns all day long is time.

Those drones are not there taking candid photos of your misses sunbathing. They are there acting as spotters for enemy forces. The more time you allow them over your position, the greater the chances of your position and troops getting hit by enemy long range weapons such as artillery or missiles or MRLS or your forward troops getting ambushed.

When you talk about intercepting your regular aircraft and missiles vs drones, esp. commercial ones, it's important to also consider the time to detect + intercept vs approach speed, angle and sensor range of your target.

Yes, size is a factor, and you're right on time as another factor.

Take something like a DJI. Their enterprise model has max speed of 80kph, service ceiling of 3,000m, resoluble sensor range of 600m/1,200m with 2x zoom, transmission/operational range 7,000m. That is much slower moving and low flying than, say, an attack craft or a helo, and well within the effective range of even a 23mm round from a ZU-23.

So let's take the ZU-23, or better yet the Shilka that's basically ZU-23 x2 on tracks with a targeting radar that, without getting too technical, has an engagement envelop that can discriminate small blind speed targets against passive interference that is also aided by an optical tracker similar to the Strela-10, which we saw took out exactly a small multi-rotor drone a few days ago... granted that was with a 9M37/333.

Anyway, what differentiates it from the "spray-and-pray" proposition as dictated by groupings and dispersion patterns, is the ammo it uses.

Unlike the 20mm rounds in a Gatling gun which are impact-fuze, hence the need for tight spreads, the 23mm family from the Russian side comes in different flavours from HEF, to airburst, to timed-fuze self-destruction rounds that address exactly the shortfall in accuracy and coverage.

The Allies used to employ proximity-fuze rounds in WWII and you don't need me to explain how it doesn't need to actually hit the target to take it out. Russian 23mm operates on the same principle, which basically makes it an AAA in a 23mm package.

Which also makes the shotgun analogy that you based your assumptions on arguably flawed, because you aren't shooting just one buckshot round of 8 pellets per shell at a catapulted, outgoing target, instead of an incoming, slow moving and loitering one. The approach is all wrong from the get-go.

Aided by the fact the quad guns on the ZSU-23-4 i.e. Shilka can dish out 4,000 rounds (itself limited by 2,000 rounds in the mag) of self-explosive shells per min. of guided bursts, you're basically blanketing the whole engagement envelop with frags instead of spraying furiously praying for a hardkill as you would with traditional shells.

So from 7 klicks out the Shilka would be expected to already know what's up, and before that pesky lil thang so much as take a peek of who's lying by the pool it'd already be peppered with shrapnel and spiral down like a dead fly.

This isn't some drummed-up theory as the Czechs and the Finns are retaining their ZU-23s for precisely this reason due to the proliferation of small drones -

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Not against airplanes, but primarily against low-flying targets, helicopters - and in recent years just against drones. This is a very popular and relatively economical solution.

Then there's SPAAGs like the Derivatsiya that augments what works with the Shilka in a modern package -

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And of course the Pantsir with its 30mm and SAM combo -

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I think it's pretty clear the Russians know the value and effectiveness of flak even in an age where SAMs have become ubiquitous, so much so that their new platforms still retain this capability is indicative of their rationale.

Sure, it’s not economical, but lives are worth a lot more and it’s a good deal to shoot at drones with SAMs if it can help save lives of your troops. Besides, with the Ukraine air forces effectively destroyed, its not like they need those SAMs for anything else right now do they?

In the face of economy of force, I would agree -
I meant reserving SAMs for actual UAVs and flaks for consumer drones. But yeah, like @Atomicfrog said old Russian SAMs have limited shelf life. So it makes more sense to make the most use out of them than to let those things rot.

.. again, there is no "cost effective" counter to saturation attacks.

That's the whole point of a saturation attack.

And no, 'ack-acks' are not effective against anything, let alone AI enabled swarms of drones & CMs.

To be sure, all that is not to say such countermeasures are 100% effective, esp. in the face of swarm attacks. Nobody realistically expects that. Hence the layered defence doctrine.

To make it sound like there's no counter to it at whatever the level you may want to clarity for yourself would be incredibly dismissive and inaccurate, when you realise the whole Western vs Soviet/Russian air defence doctrines revolve around cost-effectiveness vs saturation attacks!

In the Cold War it was anti-material missile salvos, predominantly on the naval front against Soviet missiles, and the aerial front against Western air assets. I won't name all the countermeasures developed since we should be reasonable informed here.

Add to that, we've now got drone swarms that are harder to track (not impossible, mind) but not necessarily difficult to neutralise provided you have the right tools, as I've explained in length.

I understand the urge to scoff at such terms like "ack-ack" as some bravado instilled by Hollywood culture. Fact is, it's tedious enough to dive into a complex subject such as this, since this is neither the most appropriate place nor an occasion for such brainy discussions right from the get-go.

But since we're still on the subject of Russian countermeasures against drones in Ukraine, it shouldn't be too OT to invite some relevant thoughts in this regard, if I may say.
 
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