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Granted it wouldn't be as precise, but the flak rounds would take them out just the same. [snip]
There is a general misconception thanks to Hollywood that all guns are precision sniper rifles. In reality, different guns have different accuracy levels, and anti-aircraft guns are not precise by design.
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Alright, first off, it's a bit odd you took all that I said yet still came to conclude that I assumed the opposite.
But anyway, let's address what we have here -
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The general principle with small cal AA guns is that you throw rounds in a spread pattern tight enough to be aimed effectively, but loose enough that your rounds cover a much bigger area at the intended optimal engagement range to maximise your hit chance while still achieving enough hits to have a reasonable chance to bringing down aircraft.
Nothing wrong with this statement, though it should be noted this only covers a part of what modern AA guns do and reflects more on the conventional thinking of "spray-and-pray" and "hardkill" approach that's prevalent in both Western and Soviet/Russian doctrines on close-in air defence which, ironically, is very much a Hollywood-inspired notion.
A good example, of course, would be the Vulcan-equipped Phalanx. It's not a "precise" weapon not because it's by design, but because of what that weapon inherently does, as you're shooting a linear projectile against a non-linear target that's wholly determined by relative velocities and angles of approach, and the physical limits of the delivery platform and the payload themselves.
You might think it's semantics, but they don't "design" a multi-barrel gun that fires 4,500rpm to destroy an incoming target. It's
what it would take to destroy an incoming target, and it still won't be as precise as a RAM, which precisely(!) turns this argument on its head because why would you then make such less effective weapon still?
Cost-effectiveness.
But that's not nearly the point.
The issue is the vast size discrepancy between dronesand manned aircraft.
A good analogy would be clay pigeon shooting.
You can be a world champion shooter and can hit 99.9% of clays, but your kill rate is still going to approximate zero if you were asked to shoot at flies with your shotgun at the same range as you normally shoot clays.
The other aspect that makes it worthwhile using missiles rather than taking pot shots with AA guns all day long is time.
Those drones are not there taking candid photos of your misses sunbathing. They are there acting as spotters for enemy forces. The more time you allow them over your position, the greater the chances of your position and troops getting hit by enemy long range weapons such as artillery or missiles or MRLS or your forward troops getting ambushed.
When you talk about intercepting your regular aircraft and missiles vs drones, esp. commercial ones, it's important to also consider the time to detect + intercept vs approach speed, angle and sensor range of your target.
Yes, size is a factor, and you're right on time as another factor.
Take something like a DJI. Their enterprise model has max speed of 80kph, service ceiling of 3,000m, resoluble sensor range of 600m/1,200m with 2x zoom, transmission/operational range 7,000m. That is much slower moving and low flying than, say, an attack craft or a helo, and well within the effective range of even a 23mm round from a ZU-23.
So let's take the ZU-23, or better yet the Shilka that's basically ZU-23 x2 on tracks with a targeting radar that, without getting too technical, has an engagement envelop that can discriminate small blind speed targets against passive interference that is also aided by an optical tracker similar to the Strela-10, which we saw took out exactly a small multi-rotor drone a few days ago... granted that was with a 9M37/333.
Anyway, what differentiates it from the "spray-and-pray" proposition as dictated by groupings and dispersion patterns, is the ammo it uses.
Unlike the 20mm rounds in a Gatling gun which are impact-fuze, hence the need for tight spreads, the 23mm family from the Russian side comes in different flavours from HEF, to airburst, to timed-fuze self-destruction rounds that address exactly the shortfall in accuracy and coverage.
The Allies used to employ proximity-fuze rounds in WWII and you don't need me to explain how it doesn't need to actually hit the target to take it out. Russian 23mm operates on the same principle, which basically makes it an AAA in a 23mm package.
Which also makes the shotgun analogy that you based your assumptions on arguably flawed, because you aren't shooting just one buckshot round of 8 pellets per shell at a catapulted, outgoing target, instead of an incoming, slow moving and loitering one. The approach is all wrong from the get-go.
Aided by the fact the quad guns on the ZSU-23-4 i.e. Shilka can dish out 4,000 rounds (itself limited by 2,000 rounds in the mag) of self-explosive shells per min. of guided bursts, you're basically blanketing the whole engagement envelop with frags instead of spraying furiously praying for a hardkill as you would with traditional shells.
So from 7 klicks out the Shilka would be expected to already know what's up, and before that pesky lil thang so much as take a peek of who's lying by the pool it'd already be peppered with shrapnel and spiral down like a dead fly.
This isn't some drummed-up theory as the Czechs and the Finns are retaining their ZU-23s for precisely this reason due to the proliferation of small drones -
Not against airplanes, but primarily against low-flying targets, helicopters - and in recent years just against drones. This is a very popular and relatively economical solution.
Then there's SPAAGs like the Derivatsiya that augments what works with the Shilka in a modern package -
And of course the Pantsir with its 30mm and SAM combo -
I think it's pretty clear the Russians know the value and effectiveness of flak even in an age where SAMs have become ubiquitous, so much so that their new platforms still retain this capability is indicative of their rationale.
Sure, it’s not economical, but lives are worth a lot more and it’s a good deal to shoot at drones with SAMs if it can help save lives of your troops. Besides, with the Ukraine air forces effectively destroyed, its not like they need those SAMs for anything else right now do they?
In the face of economy of force, I would agree -
I meant reserving SAMs for actual UAVs and flaks for consumer drones. But yeah, like
@Atomicfrog said
old Russian SAMs have limited shelf life. So it makes more sense to make the most use out of them than to let those things rot.
.. again, there is no "cost effective" counter to saturation attacks.
That's the whole point of a saturation attack.
And no, 'ack-acks' are not effective against anything, let alone AI enabled swarms of drones & CMs.
To be sure, all that is not to say such countermeasures are 100% effective, esp. in the face of swarm attacks. Nobody realistically expects that. Hence the layered defence doctrine.
To make it sound like there's no counter to it at whatever the level you may want to clarity for yourself would be incredibly dismissive and inaccurate, when you realise the whole Western vs Soviet/Russian air defence doctrines revolve around cost-effectiveness vs saturation attacks!
In the Cold War it was anti-material missile salvos, predominantly on the naval front against Soviet missiles, and the aerial front against Western air assets. I won't name all the countermeasures developed since we should be reasonable informed here.
Add to that, we've now got drone swarms that are harder to track (not impossible, mind) but not necessarily difficult to neutralise provided you have the right tools, as I've explained in length.
I understand the urge to scoff at such terms like "ack-ack" as some bravado instilled by Hollywood culture. Fact is, it's tedious enough to dive into a complex subject such as this, since this is neither the most appropriate place nor an occasion for such brainy discussions right from the get-go.
But since we're still on the subject of Russian countermeasures against drones in Ukraine, it shouldn't be
too OT to invite some relevant thoughts in this regard, if I may say.