Ukrainian War Developments

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Deino

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
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Didn't see anyone here been glee over war crimes. All are disgusted so far. And frankly this thinks should be shown and not swept under the rug what the western media and on reddit similar places is happening right now.


The Western media is not reddit and it is in no way relevant what happens there. If they have or share an opinion you don't like, it is your problem but it is NEVER EVER a justification to show such footage here.

And that's the end of the debate!
 

Fede_LV

New Member
Registered Member
No disrespect intended, but it sounds like you don't know the difference between a war crime and graphic footage (which I agree is disgusting and should not be posted here).

For example, there are pictures circulating of Ukrainian forces using hollow point ammunition. Using that is clearly a war crime, yet is not graphic in any way. It's just a guy loading a magazine. Is that banned?
Stop Trolling man.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
Posted by Scott Ritter @RealScottRitter, the ex-USMC, on 29 March 2022

1/ Big Arrow War—a primer. For all those scratching their heads in confusion, or dusting off their dress uniforms for the Ukrainian victory parade in Kiev, over the news about Russia’s “strategic shift”, you might want to re-familiarize yourself with basic military concepts.

2/ Maneuver warfare is a good place to start. Understand Russia started its “special military operation” with a severe manpower deficit—200,000 attackers to some 600,000 defenders (or more). Classic attritional conflict was never an option. Russian victory required maneuver.

3/ Maneuver war is more psychological than physical and focuses more on the operational than on the tactical level. Maneuver is relational movement—how you deploy and move your forces in relation to your opponent. Russian maneuver in the first phase of its operation support this.

4/ The Russians needed to shape the battlefield to their advantage. In order to do this, they needed to control how Ukraine employed it’s numerically superior forces, while distributing their own smaller combat power to best accomplish this objective.

5/ Strategically, to facilitate the ability to maneuver between the southern, central, and northern fronts, Russia needed to secure a land bridge between Crimea and Russia. The seizure of the coastal city of Mariupol was critical to this effort. Russia has accomplished this task.

6/ While this complex operation unfolded, Russia needed to keep Ukraine from maneuvering its numerically superior forces in a manner that disrupted the Mariupol operation. This entailed the use of several strategic supporting operations—feints, fixing operations, and deep attack.

7/ The concept of a feint is simple—a military force either is seen as preparing to attack a given location, or actually conducts an attack, for the purpose of deceiving an opponent into committing resources in response to the perceived or actual actions.

8/ The use of the feint played a major role in Desert Storm, where Marine Amphibious forces threatened the Kuwaiti coast, forcing Iraq to defend against an attack that never came, and where the 1st Cavalry Division actually attacked Wadi Al Batin to pin down the Republican Guard.

9/ The Russians made extensive use of the feint in Ukraine, with Amphibious forces off Odessa freezing Ukrainian forces there, and a major feint attack toward Kiev compelling Ukraine to reinforce their forces there. Ukraine was never able to reinforce their forces in the east.

10/ Fixing operations were also critical. Ukraine had assembled some 60,000-100,000 troops in the east, opposite Donbas. Russia carried out a broad fixing attack designed to keep these forces fully engaged and unable to maneuver in respect to other Russian operations.

11/ During Desert Storm, two Marine Divisions were ordered to carry out similar fixing attacks against Iraqi forces deployed along the Kuwaiti-Saudi border, tying down significant numbers of men and material that could not be used to counter the main US attack out west.

12/ The Russian fixing attack pinned the main Ukrainian concentration of forces in the east, and drove them away from Mariupol, which was invested and reduced. Supporting operations out of Crimea against Kherson expanded the Russian land bridge. This phase is now complete.

13/ Russia also engaged in a campaign of strategic deep attack designed to disrupt and destroy Ukrainian logistics, command & control, and air power and long-range fire support. Ukraine is running out of fuel and ammo, cannot coordinate maneuver, and has no meaningful Air Force.

14/ Russia is redeploying some of its premier units from where they had been engaged in feint operations in northern Kiev to where they can support the next phase of the operation, namely the liberation of the Donbas and the destruction of the main Ukrainian force in the east.

15/ This is classic maneuver warfare. Russia will now hold Ukraine in the north and south while its main forces, reinforced by the northern units, Marines, and forces freed up by the capture of Mariupol, seek to envelope and destroy 60,000 Ukrainian forces in the east.

16/ This is Big Arrow War at its finest, something Americans used to know but forgot in the deserts and mountains of Afghanistan and Iraq. It also explains how 200,000 Russians have been able to defeat 600,000 Ukrainians. Thus ends the primer on maneuver warfare, Russian style.
[END]

Then a well-thought question to an actual ex-military man from someone there:

How has your position towards the future developments of the war changed during the time? Anything that surprised you and made you change your mind from the initial analysis?

The slow pace of operations. I never thought Russia would depart from its doctrine of overwhelming firepower and mass to preserve civilian life and property. The evidence clearly shows they have.
He's mostly right but I don't think the Kiev offensive was a feint. The numbers deployed there were too big. I think the plan was for the Kiev offensive to reach Kiev at the same time as the Chernihiv/Sumy offensives.
In my opinion the northern defence of Kiev collapsed and that offensive advanced too fast, and/or the Chernihiv/Sumy offensives were bogged down. So you had a situation for a month with a mass of Russian forces were sitting outside Kiev unopposed not knowing what to do. Ukraine didn't have enough localised forces to dislodge them, and the Russians were unable/unwilling to besiege Kiev alone. I think the decision not to besiege Kiev was a political decision rather than a military one.

I don't think it makes sense to withdraw them fully and redeploy them in the east, if only because then Chernobyl will be lost. Makes more sense to pull them back slightly and control the road to Belarus so they can continue with supplies. If you can get a localised ceasefire agreement with the Ukrainians to stop them with harassment attacks even better. I think that's what they did, in return for lifting the siege on Chernihiv.

He's also underestimating the number of forces deployed in the east by Ukraine, which is why they are going to lose badly.
 

solarz

Brigadier
No disrespect intended, but it sounds like you don't know the difference between a war crime and graphic footage (which I agree is disgusting and should not be posted here).

For example, there are pictures circulating of Ukrainian forces using hollow point ammunition. Using that is clearly a war crime, yet is not graphic in any way. It's just a guy loading a magazine. Is that banned?

What's so hard to understand? Don't show actual images or videos of people being killed, or even dead bodies for that matter. If anything, the mods have been too lenient to this thread.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Posted by Scott Ritter @RealScottRitter, the ex-USMC, on 29 March 2022

1/ Big Arrow War—a primer. For all those scratching their heads in confusion, or dusting off their dress uniforms for the Ukrainian victory parade in Kiev, over the news about Russia’s “strategic shift”, you might want to re-familiarize yourself with basic military concepts.

2/ Maneuver warfare is a good place to start. Understand Russia started its “special military operation” with a severe manpower deficit—200,000 attackers to some 600,000 defenders (or more). Classic attritional conflict was never an option. Russian victory required maneuver.

3/ Maneuver war is more psychological than physical and focuses more on the operational than on the tactical level. Maneuver is relational movement—how you deploy and move your forces in relation to your opponent. Russian maneuver in the first phase of its operation support this.

4/ The Russians needed to shape the battlefield to their advantage. In order to do this, they needed to control how Ukraine employed it’s numerically superior forces, while distributing their own smaller combat power to best accomplish this objective.

5/ Strategically, to facilitate the ability to maneuver between the southern, central, and northern fronts, Russia needed to secure a land bridge between Crimea and Russia. The seizure of the coastal city of Mariupol was critical to this effort. Russia has accomplished this task.

6/ While this complex operation unfolded, Russia needed to keep Ukraine from maneuvering its numerically superior forces in a manner that disrupted the Mariupol operation. This entailed the use of several strategic supporting operations—feints, fixing operations, and deep attack.

7/ The concept of a feint is simple—a military force either is seen as preparing to attack a given location, or actually conducts an attack, for the purpose of deceiving an opponent into committing resources in response to the perceived or actual actions.

8/ The use of the feint played a major role in Desert Storm, where Marine Amphibious forces threatened the Kuwaiti coast, forcing Iraq to defend against an attack that never came, and where the 1st Cavalry Division actually attacked Wadi Al Batin to pin down the Republican Guard.

9/ The Russians made extensive use of the feint in Ukraine, with Amphibious forces off Odessa freezing Ukrainian forces there, and a major feint attack toward Kiev compelling Ukraine to reinforce their forces there. Ukraine was never able to reinforce their forces in the east.

10/ Fixing operations were also critical. Ukraine had assembled some 60,000-100,000 troops in the east, opposite Donbas. Russia carried out a broad fixing attack designed to keep these forces fully engaged and unable to maneuver in respect to other Russian operations.

11/ During Desert Storm, two Marine Divisions were ordered to carry out similar fixing attacks against Iraqi forces deployed along the Kuwaiti-Saudi border, tying down significant numbers of men and material that could not be used to counter the main US attack out west.

12/ The Russian fixing attack pinned the main Ukrainian concentration of forces in the east, and drove them away from Mariupol, which was invested and reduced. Supporting operations out of Crimea against Kherson expanded the Russian land bridge. This phase is now complete.

13/ Russia also engaged in a campaign of strategic deep attack designed to disrupt and destroy Ukrainian logistics, command & control, and air power and long-range fire support. Ukraine is running out of fuel and ammo, cannot coordinate maneuver, and has no meaningful Air Force.

14/ Russia is redeploying some of its premier units from where they had been engaged in feint operations in northern Kiev to where they can support the next phase of the operation, namely the liberation of the Donbas and the destruction of the main Ukrainian force in the east.

15/ This is classic maneuver warfare. Russia will now hold Ukraine in the north and south while its main forces, reinforced by the northern units, Marines, and forces freed up by the capture of Mariupol, seek to envelope and destroy 60,000 Ukrainian forces in the east.

16/ This is Big Arrow War at its finest, something Americans used to know but forgot in the deserts and mountains of Afghanistan and Iraq. It also explains how 200,000 Russians have been able to defeat 600,000 Ukrainians. Thus ends the primer on maneuver warfare, Russian style.
[END]

Then a well-thought question to an actual ex-military man from someone there:

How has your position towards the future developments of the war changed during the time? Anything that surprised you and made you change your mind from the initial analysis?

The slow pace of operations. I never thought Russia would depart from its doctrine of overwhelming firepower and mass to preserve civilian life and property. The evidence clearly shows they have.
@windsclouds2030 thanks bro, Now this gentleman is worth listening too, so I hope those armchairs expert should learn a thing or two cause he is giving a masterclass for free! So is Russia bog down and is on the defensive? In your dreams..... :cool:
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
The Ukrainians aren't releasing the numbers of their dead anymore. The Russians are. I wonder why....
Ukraine does not name the number of losses in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as this is a military secret. This was stated by Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President Alexei Arestovich.

“Many say: why didn’t you block the Crimean Isthmus? Because any number of troops standing there would be mixed with sand by Russian aircraft. It is impossible to resist aviation in an open field, which has an approach time of two minutes, ”said the adviser to the head of the Presidential Office.

Arestovich goes on to talk about why Ukraine does not name its losses.

“The numbers are there, of course. I know them almost to the point of a person, but I will not name them. Until the end of the war... Because not a single army in the world recognizes its losses during the war,” Arestovich said.

About the fact that Russia is voicing its losses, Arestovich noted the following:

“So they are lying, underestimating these figures by 10 times. We can lie too. We only said the number of victims after the air raids on the first day. It was necessary to report that there were the first dead - 46 people died. And then it's a military secret."
Does that sound familiar to anyone....
 
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