Ukrainian War Developments

Wow. If this is true the Russians have admitted defeat. They have not only failed militarily but from now on this war will be known as the heroic Ukraine War of independence, etc.

It'll be especially humiliating if after all the talk of NATO expansion being the cause of the war, Ukraine gets article 5 style guarantees.

Just awful for Russia. Hard to see where it goes from here.

gadgetcool5 said:

It'll be especially humiliating if after all the talk of NATO expansion being the cause of the war, Ukraine gets article 5 style guarantees.

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These conditions are Ukraine's demands. Haven't heard anything from Russia so far

Well, no need to give too much thoughts to so called security guarantee for the moment, it could range from obligation to declare war on violation, to sanction on violation, to writing a strongly worded letter on violation.... I believe whatever it is it's closer to the latter ones...

I will say from a strictly military standpoint, the pullback in the north makes sense. It's been clear for weeks now that the Russians cannot take Kiev with their current troops. They need to consolidate their lines in the East. But it'll have the effect of massively emboldening the Ukrainians and raising their morale.

Will the Russians withdraw from around Sumy, Kharkov, and even Kherson too? Starting to think it's a possibility.

gadgetcool5 said:

Wow. If this is true the Russians have admitted defeat. They have not only failed militarily but from now on this war will be known as the heroic Ukraine War of independence, etc.

It'll be especially humiliating if after all the talk of NATO expansion being the cause of the war, Ukraine gets article 5 style guarantees.

Just awful for Russia. Hard to see where it goes from here.

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Looks like it. Putin is a western cuck if it's true. He should be turning Kiev into Mariupol right now, not making peace with them. Russia should be treated as an enemy state if they make a deal with the Anglos and don't finish off Ukraine at the very least.

Hopefully it's all Ukrainian propaganda, we'll see.

Also official. IMO a loss for Russia

"BREAKING: Russia's chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky says he is not opposed to Ukraine's EU membership"

1 month ago:

Bravely did the Russians ride forth to fine Kiev.
They were not afraid to die, O brave Russians!.
They were not at all afraid to be killed in nasty ways, Brave, brave, brave, brave Russians!
They were not in the least bit scared to be bombed into a pulp,
Or to have their eyes gouged out and their elbows broken,
To have their helos shot down and their tanks all burned away
And their BMPs hacked and mangled, brave Russia!

And now:

Russia ran away, Bravely ran away, away.
When danger reared its ugly head, they bravely turned their tail and fled.
Yes, brave Russia turned about
And gallantly, they chickened out.
Bravely taking to their feet, they beat a very brave retreat, Bravest of the brave, Russia!
They're packing it in and packing it up
And sneaking away and buggering up
And chickening out and pissing off home,
Yes, bravely they're throwing in the sponge.

Overbom said:

No it shouldnt. China has military assistance obligations only with NK, and even then, its not a blank cheque.

If superhero Zelensky thinks that China is going to come and save his a$$ because he messed things up, then he is gravely mistaken. We have seen the level of his "statecraft", so excuse me for having doubts that China will want to chain itself to such a deplorable political class.

China shouldn't touch Ukraine even with a 10ft pole

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Guarantor does not necessarily come with military assistance obligations. Even if it does, nominal military assist obligations often can be reneged using any of large array of plausible excuses with little collateral damage, especially if the obligation is carefully worded to be conditional. Why so terrified of the exposure without knowing what the risks involved actually are? There certainly is benefit to becoming part of a group such that if others in the group wants to get things done, they have to secure your collaboration.

gadgetcool5 said:

I will say from a strictly military standpoint, the pullback in the north makes sense. It's been clear for weeks now that the Russians cannot take Kiev with their current troops. They need to consolidate their lines in the East. But it'll have the effect of massively emboldening the Ukrainians and raising their morale.

Will the Russians withdraw from around Sumy, Kharkov, and even Kherson too? Starting to think it's a possibility.

Click to expand...

No it doesn't. He didn't need to take Kiev, or even surround it. Just park up your artillery in range and shell entry/exit points to the rear of the city. He could have done that but didn't.

Maikeru said:

1 month ago:

Bravely did the Russians ride forth to fine Kiev.
They were not afraid to die, O brave Russians!.
They were not at all afraid to be killed in nasty ways, Brave, brave, brave, brave Russians!
They were not in the least bit scared to be bombed into a pulp,
Or to have their eyes gouged out and their elbows broken,
To have their helos shot down and their tanks all burned away
And their BMPs hacked and mangled, brave Russia!

And now:

Russia ran away, Bravely ran away, away.
When danger reared its ugly head, they bravely turned their tail and fled.
Yes, brave Russia turned about
And gallantly, they chickened out.
Bravely taking to their feet, they beat a very brave retreat, Bravest of the brave, Russia!
They're packing it in and packing it up
And sneaking away and buggering up
And chickening out and pissing off home,
Yes, bravely they're throwing in the sponge.

Click to expand...

Your impartiality and thoughtful reserve is much less worthy of poem and musical ode.