Ukrainian War Developments

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ArmchairAnalyst

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Abominable said:
Not buying Russian gas will hurt Russia a lot unlike previous sanctions, China and India can't buy all of Russia's oil and gas.

I don't think it would be economic MAD. Both Russia and Europe have alternative clients for energy. It will lead to a collapse in standard of living for both, but the damage will be far worse in Europe. Most Russians remember the 90s and have lived like that before. West Europeans have never experienced that in their life for the most part.
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Well, then you probably didn't live in Western Europe through the 70s and early 80s with severe oil crisis, social unrest and economic downturn with mass unemployment. Things haven't always been rosy in euroland ;)

Abominable said:
If this becomes a protracted thing, you'll wonder what the impact to Europe will be. Most European products are considered luxury or high end, there's a lot of value added to that. It's going to be hard to maintain that when your country converts to a similar living standard as Brazil.

Of course, then there is my theory is that the Arabs are waiting for the Russians to cut off gas to Europe so they can apply an embargo. They're unhappy with their homelands being bombed by Europeans and Americans for decades, and will just use it as an opportunity to send "Israeli" colonists back to Europe and New York. That's just a hunch though :)

So I think Germans will agree to Russian demands and go back to the long term plan of switching away from Russian energy.
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I actually think that would be wiser for Germany (and the EU) long term but like Putin they have painted themselves into a corner too :rolleyes:
 
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Lethe

Lethe

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Appix said:
Absolutely. You will also give them EEZ and more places where the US can harass and threaten a certain three states nearby. Fuck Japan. This man wants to strengthen a hostile state for free.
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I don't want to derail the thread so I am not going to continue this discussion. But certainly I am guilty of being a pragmatist regarding territorial disputes. The question is how to achieve strategically beneficial outcomes. The "sacred" dimension does not resonate with me, though of course one must account for it as one does the weather, or malaria.
 
windsclouds2030

windsclouds2030

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TASS (
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"We are NOT bombing cities and civilian facilities as the US and NATO did in Yugoslavia, Iraq or Afghanistan, ruthlessly destroying residential neighborhoods with thousands of people," he pointed out at a meeting with Noureddine Makri, head of Algeria's Directorate General for Documentation and External Security.

Secretary of Russia’s Security Council Nikolay Patrushev explained that as part of the special military operation, "strikes, including high-precision weapons, are carried out against major strongholds, airfields, weapons storage sites and accumulations of military equipment of the Ukrainian army."

Via Mango Press -28 March 2022
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Patrushev might have referred to BOMBING IRAQ like this one:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498451338010710016


Russia will withstand all the imposed sanctions, the country's economy will become more efficient and less dependent on the West, Valentina Matviyenko said.

Valentina Matviyenko is Russian politician serving as the Senator from Saint Petersburg and Chairwoman of the Federation Council since 2011. Previously she was Governor of Saint Petersburg from 2003 to 2011. Born in Ukraine, Matviyenko started her political career in the 1980s in Leningrad, and was the First Secretary of the Krasnogvardeysky District Communist Party of the city from 1984 to 1986.


BREAKING: Battleground News

[Forwarded from Sputnik News US] 2022-03-28
⚡️Russian MoD: Ukrainian Mi-8 heading to Mariupol to evacuate Azov battalion leaders shot down

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Bill Blazo

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A video from Mariupol today showed a Russian soldier or journalist casually strolling around the destroyed drama theater. This indicates that the whole city center is under Russian control. It looks like the Russians now hold about 75% of the entire city. For all intents and purposes, Mariupol has fallen. It's just a matter of how much time the Russians need to mop up the remaining pockets of Ukrainian resistance.
 
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Abominable

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ArmchairAnalyst said:
Well, then you probably didn't live in Western Europe through the 70s and early 80s with severe oil crisis, social unrest and economic downturn with mass unemployment. Things haven't always been rosy in euroland ;)


I actually think that would be wiser for Germany (and the EU) long term but like Putin they have painted themselves into a corner too :rolleyes:
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Western Europe was dealing with social unrest, economic downturn and high fuel prices before Putin stepped into Ukraine, it was pretty close to the 70s already. You don't think things are going to get much worse than that time period if Europe suddenly decides to stop using Russian gas and oil?

Russia post USSR lost 50% of their GDP in less than a decade, and it was already pretty low. Whatever the outcome of this war is it won't be as bad as that.
 
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