Ukrainian War Developments

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Suetham

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Abominable

Major
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Actually not - it's economic MAD by both sides hurting themselves trying to hurt the other part just a little bit more.
If things keep escalating like this we might cross the line where a wider hot war becomes unavoidable.
Not buying Russian gas will hurt Russia a lot unlike previous sanctions, China and India can't buy all of Russia's oil and gas.

I don't think it would be economic MAD. Both Russia and Europe have alternative clients for energy. It will lead to a collapse in standard of living for both, but the damage will be far worse in Europe. Most Russians remember the 90s and have lived like that before. West Europeans have never experienced that in their life for the most part.

If this becomes a protracted thing, you'll wonder what the impact to Europe will be. Most European products are considered luxury or high end, there's a lot of value added to that. It's going to be hard to maintain that when your country converts to a similar living standard as Brazil.

Of course, then there is my theory is that the Arabs are waiting for the Russians to cut off gas to Europe so they can apply an embargo. They're unhappy with their homelands being bombed by Europeans and Americans for decades, and will just use it as an opportunity to send "Israeli" colonists back to Europe and New York. That's just a hunch though :)

So I think Germans will agree to Russian demands and go back to the long term plan of switching away from Russian energy.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
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This is General Alexey Avdeev.
General Andrei Mordvichev has an entirely different face:
Just compare the photos. This is yet another propaganda of the war. Precisely for this reason I stopped posting news about the war sequentially, there is no reliability in news, photos and even videos.
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Actually that second picture you have is Alexey Avdeev.

Only select banks were banned from SWIFT, so they can still use or access Euros and Dollars.
To buy what? I put a chart of Russia's trade with Europe on this site just the other day. The only major import Russia gets from Europe which wasn't banned was medicine. But there are reports of medicine shortages in Russia right now. Probably because of a combination of the SWIFT disconnection, and transportation companies refusing to ship products from the EU to Russia. A lot of the active ingredients in medicine come from India and China in the first place anyway. If the problem is putting them on pills and packaging this can be done in Russia just fine. There are generic drug companies in Russia.

Germany is currently still paying in Euros and Dollars for Russian Gazprom imports.
Except those Euros and Dollars can't buy vehicle parts, vehicles, and aircraft, or aircraft parts. Which used to be the major import Russia got from the EU other than medicine. The rest is mostly residual. I am sure there will be localized impacts which will be hard to solve but they can get those products elsewhere.

Not buying Russian gas will hurt Russia a lot unlike previous sanctions,
It will hurt Europe way more.

China and India can't buy all of Russia's oil and gas.
Actually they can. In the long term it is perfectly possible. In fact it will be in the best interests of the world economy for this to happen.
China alone can absorb all the gas imports Europe is getting from Russia in like 15 years.

I don't think it would be economic MAD. Both Russia and Europe have alternative clients for energy.
Russia has a alternative clients yes. And Europe can get different suppliers. But it can't be done in the short term. Even in the middle term simply changing suppliers is basically impossible. If the gas and oil supply from Russia gets cut to Europe I think you will see issues in three months tops. Unless they start conversing energy seriously it won't even last until winter. Let alone to go through winter.

It will lead to a collapse in standard of living for both, but the damage will be far worse in Europe. Most Russians remember the 90s and have lived like that before. West Europeans have never experienced that in their life for the most part.
Yes exactly. And you have to remember in the 1990s Russia lost like 15 years in average lifespan. People who did statistical estimates claim they lost more people than in the WW2 or Civil War periods. But the thing is they never lost access to energy.

If this becomes a protracted thing, you'll wonder what the impact to Europe will be. Most European products are considered luxury or high end, there's a lot of value added to that. It's going to be hard to maintain that when your country converts to a similar living standard as Brazil.
Luxury products typically don't require a lot of energy to produce. But heavy industry will totally collapse.

So I think Germans will agree to Russian demands and go back to the long term plan of switching away from Russian energy.
It is way easier for Russia to cut gas than oil. They have limited oil storage capabilities. But they have a huuuge gas storage capability. And we have basically gone through the winter period. So they can likely store a month of gas. Also enough time to start shutting down wells slowly. An oil shutdown would be more difficult to do but may also happen in due course.

Watching this photo from the frontlines you comprehend the losses of the Russian Army in armor
Most armor losses I saw were from mechanical breakdowns or similar. I expected more tank losses with all those ATGMs to be honest.
 
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Abominable

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Watching this photo from the frontlines you comprehend the losses of the Russian Army in armor
That's pretty much what I expected. We're getting close to the farcical point where every Ukrainian soldier will be carrying a Kalashnikov in one hand and some type of western ATGM in the other. No wonder so many of them are being recovered by Russians.

If you think an army can operate like that for any period of time you're mistaken.

Not to mention the mismatched rifles.
 
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Suetham

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Actually that second picture you have is Alexey Avdeev.
You are absolutely right. See how confusing this is.

Your statement is true. The general in the 1st photo is Andrei Mordvichev considered dead and the second in the photo is Alexey Avdeev. Ukrainian sources confirm::

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It's the same as the video. So Andrei Mordvichev did not die, the general in the first photo and the general in the video posted on twitter.

This is so confusing that even who should have been the most informed about it fell for the war propaganda:

 
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