Ukrainian War Developments

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pmc

Major
Registered Member
If Azerbaijan launches a full scale attack on Karabakh it will be difficult for Russia to defend it. The 2020 was short but very bloody, however civilians were mostly spared. Azerbaijan taking Stepankert would be a humanitarian disaster. This is definitely not something Russia wanted to see. Worst case scenario it finds itself fighting a two front war with Azerbaijan and possibly Turkey.

Western attitudes were largely pro-Armenian in that conflict, I wonder how they will see the situation now.
Turkey is not going to come to Azerbaijan rescue once Russia decide for it. It will be Ukraine that will be responsible for depriving Europe of Azerbaijani gas. Ukraine problem is that it has associated so closely with Turkey that it is not understanding the negative baggage.

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Lethe

Captain
Russia's war on Ukraine fails to satisfy the criteria for a 'just war' in any moral philosophical tradition of which I know.
But the Russian Orthodox Church's leaders are Putin's accomplices in Russia's wars.
Some Russian Orthodox priests disagree and have started to break away. [....]

I don't understand how this post relates to our discussion. I am not defending Moscow's actions on moral grounds, or arguing that Putin is fighting a "just war", my point is only that this war was clearly not Moscow's first choice, or even its second choice. Moscow tried "means other than war" to achieve its objectives, and those means failed. It does not matter what we think of Moscow's position, it matters only what that position is and how willing and capable Moscow is of enforcing it. If Moscow's "red line" was that there should be no penguins in Antarctica then we should have to deal with it in the same way.

P.S. I have offered my views on matters of abstract morality and the physics of power in other posts. But if we are going to invoke religion and literature, I call Oswald Spengler: "When Jesus came before Pilate, the world of truths and the world of facts came face to face in immediate and implacable hostility."

I hear this a lot repeated here and by western media. Can any of you posters link evidence to show that the Russian intelligence expected Ukraine to welcome them as liberators?

If Moscow had expected the resistance they have encountered then they would not have pushed so rapidly to Kyiv as they did, advancing far ahead of logistical support and providing myriad opportunities for ambushes. They would not have diffused their strength across three broad fronts so that it is difficult to achieve the concentration of forces necessary to achieve local superiority and thereby breakthrough with minimal losses. They would've brought more men with better logistics backing them up. They would've been structured and trained for urban warfare rather than defensive maneuver warfare as is actually the case.

There will rarely be a "smoking gun", the question is how best to explain what we observe within a theoretical framework. And frankly, the explanation that this war is going quite badly for Russia because Putin and co. fundamentally did not anticipate this kind of conflict is more generous than some other explanations. For one, it accords with Moscow's official narrative of this as a more limited "special military operation" -- because that is what it was intended to be! And it pushes back against the narrative that Moscow is engaged in the wanton and indiscriminate destruction of Ukranian lives and culture.
 
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pmc

Major
Registered Member
I think the purpose of drones wouldn't be to target MANPADs, but artillery, grad launchers, transport, supply trucks. If anything you'd rather let the drone soak up manpad fire because it's better to lose a drone than a helicopter.

You can do the same with Ka-52, or even Su-25 but compare the running costs, flight endurance times, and scalability. Two squadrons of WL-2 would mean you could be continuously harassing Ukrainian lines 24/7.
Most drones operate in medium altitude. so manpad is hardly a concern. since they are slow and non stealthy. Nato AWACS can pick them WL-2 will have added incremental capability over Forpost-R and Orion UCAV but hardly worth investment in manpower training and maintenance for high tempo operation

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In Dubai the Orion-E was exhibited along with the Vikhr guided missile, produced by the Kalashnikov Group. The Vikhr is capable of hitting targets at a distance of up to 10 kilometers, its speed is more than 600 meters per second. In May the Kalashnikov reported about the successful flight trials of the missiles with a series of launches performed by a Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopter. The single missile type could boost the market promotion of both products, the Orion-E and the Ka-52, as well as make the drone attractive for the gunship’s potential operators.
 

Lapin

Junior Member
Registered Member
If you like some anecdotal evidence I've skimmed through some Russian Forums with the help of google translate and found most Russians seems to be for it with some of them worrying about the economy due to sanction. Of course maybe they're all forced by FSB at gun point to type on their keyboard, I won't know....



So to prove the validity of anecdotal evidence, you gave me two more anecdotal evidences?



Good for you I guess, so some STEM trained people does fall for anecdotal evidences? So much for my anecdotal observation...
You wrote: "So to prove the validity of anecdotal evidence, you gave me two more anecdotal evidences?"

You have just failed your basic reading comprehension test of what I wrote earlier:
"No one claimed that 'anecdotal evidence' is a complete substitute for a scientific survey, but it's not necessarily worthless."

On YouTube, it's easy to find (as I did without even trying) some brave Russians who are opposed to Russia's war.
Here's Natasha, who quotes: "War Is Peace, Freedom Is Slavery, and Ignorance Is Strength" -- George Orwell, 1984


"I'm not arrested *yet*, and I have no words to describe what is happening in Ukraine, and I cannot use that words (sic)
anyway because now in Russia there are new laws that prohibit you from calling what is happening a war. ...
Self-censoring is really hard, but I will try to tell what I can tell in this video. ...
At first it seemed to me that all people share the same [anti-war] opinion as mine, but then I realized that this is only what
I saw in my information bubble, and I learned that actually many people have a different opinion, and I was so disgusted
and terrified by this, I couldn't believe my eyes. I didn't know that propaganda can work so effective (sic), that people
can be so brainwashed. So after seeing the sentiments in Russian society, I understood that instead of asking,
'What do Russian people think about what is happening?' we should ask 'Do Russian people know what is happening?'
or 'Do they know that they are supposed to think about this?' ...
And for these days I felt a lot of anxiety, anger, and helplessness because I tried to talk to people;,
I tried to do some things that I cannot tell you about, but it's so useless; it's like talking to the wall ..."
--Natasha

Note that many writers here are so credulous that they fanatically lap up and regurgitate Russian state propaganda,
even though some Russians can see through that propaganda.

This forum has many evidently extremely close-minded national or ethnic chauvinists, whose arrogance and prejudices far
exceed their intelligence. As such, I have wondered if I am in a forum of 'typical' Americans, only wearing different labels.
 

lapain

New Member
Registered Member
They are doing thing Russian style... a disorganized, couldn't-care-less attitude with some loose ends but still getting the job done...

They would have three times the lost because of that.

Hi-Tech equipment costs a lot, and such deployment wouldn't withstand in time in the case of Russia. Right now, they are using the Syrian conflict method of using near-discard equipment and minimal volume of forces. If such methods would be efficient against the large manpower with the landmass of Ukraine remains to be seen. But so far they have acheived tactical air superiority over the areas of concern, crippled the Ukrainian logistics to the East, taking out their fuel supplies as they did with ISIS, tying down the bulk of the AFU and currently advancing at raking pace. Some faster momentum surely would be welcome but again, what does Putin win in ending the conflict fast? The Russians might be paying more for Toyotas and Iphones, while bread and gas becomes a luxury in the Eurozone and Britain.

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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
On YouTube, it's easy to find (as I did without even trying) some brave Russians who are opposed to Russia's war.
Here's Natasha, who quotes: "War Is Peace, Freedom Is Slavery, and Ignorance Is Strength" -- George Orwell, 1984
She is Anti-Putin. There are some people in Russia like that. Nothing the government does is right.
She also makes Youtube videos for English speaking viewers. I can guess what happened to her income after the US put SWIFT sanctions on Russia. Several Russians who had such kind of occupations left Russia.

Youtube itself might get blocked in Russia eventually. Google News was already blocked.
 

Nobaru

Junior Member
Registered Member
You wrote: "So to prove the validity of anecdotal evidence, you gave me two more anecdotal evidences?"

You have just failed your basic reading comprehension test of what I wrote earlier:
"No one claimed that 'anecdotal evidence' is a complete substitute for a scientific survey, but it's not necessarily worthless."

On YouTube, it's easy to find (as I did without even trying) some brave Russians who are opposed to Russia's war.
Here's Natasha, who quotes: "War Is Peace, Freedom Is Slavery, and Ignorance Is Strength" -- George Orwell, 1984


"I'm not arrested *yet*, and I have no words to describe what is happening in Ukraine, and I cannot use that words (sic)
anyway because now in Russia there are new laws that prohibit you from calling what is happening a war. ...
Self-censoring is really hard, but I will try to tell what I can tell in this video. ...
At first it seemed to me that all people share the same [anti-war] opinion as mine, but then I realized that this is only what
I saw in my information bubble, and I learned that actually many people have a different opinion, and I was so disgusted
and terrified by this, I couldn't believe my eyes. I didn't know that propaganda can work so effective (sic), that people
can be so brainwashed. So after seeing the sentiments in Russian society, I understood that instead of asking,
'What do Russian people think about what is happening?' we should ask 'Do Russian people know what is happening?'
or 'Do they know that they are supposed to think about this?' ...
And for these days I felt a lot of anxiety, anger, and helplessness because I tried to talk to people;,
I tried to do some things that I cannot tell you about, but it's so useless; it's like talking to the wall ..."
--Natasha

Note that many writers here are so credulous that they fanatically lap up and regurgitate Russian state propaganda,
even though some Russians can see through that propaganda.

This forum has many evidently extremely close-minded national or ethnic chauvinists, whose arrogance and prejudices far
exceed their intelligence. As such, I have wondered if I am in a forum of 'typical' Americans, only wearing different labels.
Quite a funny post. Read it 4 times with smug on face.
 

Nobaru

Junior Member
Registered Member
She is Anti-Putin. There are some people in Russia like that. Nothing the government does is right.
She also makes Youtube videos for English speaking viewers. I can guess what happened to her income after the US put SWIFT sanctions on Russia. Several Russians who had such kind of occupations left Russia.

Youtube itself might get blocked in Russia eventually. Google News was already blocked.
Being anti isn't problem. What i found to be funny is she failed to mention what she did to destroy the US funded biolabs in Ukraine aimed at Russia.
 
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