Ukrainian War Developments

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FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Vietnam was supplied with top of the line equipment including Soviet pilots and operators.
There is no way for Russia to get out of Ukraine with even a short term win.
They were supplied with second line equipment like Mig-21s when Mig-23 and 25 we're already out. All the Vietnam War aces were Vietnamese.

US is supplying targeting information to Ukraine.
 

B.I.B.

Captain
Russia would expect 3x higher losses than US in Vietnam given the relative strength of Ukraine (1/4 population 1/8 GDP)
I was listening to the two Alexs on "The Duran" and they are not convinced the Russian losses are as high as claimed. If they were, that would make the Russian casulty rate higher than when they fought the Germans in the Ukraine during WW2
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
Biden's speech in Poland:
In summary:

  • Russia is the Soviet Union again.
  • Ukraine can't have Nazis because Zelensky is a Jew
  • "Putin needs to go", but the Russian people have the right to choose their leader.
  • Russia's economy is currently ruined, no more McDonalds for them. One dollar is apparently worth 200 rubles (LOL).
  • 200,000 Russians are leaving Russia, this is a brain drain.
  • Russians censor their media
  • "Don't think about moving on one inch of NATO territory"
  • Ukrainians will fight on for many months.
  • NATO is more united than ever. It is also a defensive alliance because we say it is.
  • Europe needs to stop buying Russian gas.
  • Repeats that Putin cannot remain in power
In terms of delivery it's probably his best speech ever, maybe his dementia helps him with the cold war theme of it.

It's obviously aimed for domestic and European consumption. It sounds like he's given up on the Ukraine and is hoping Putin won't carry the war on to NATO. No mention of the nuclear threat (again).

No mention of China which I expected to be the main subject of the the speech. It was like China doesn't exist. From the Chinese perspective the speech was perfect.

Apart from the dishonesty of it all, it seems unclear what the end goal is. What if the Russian people choose Putin? When Putin retires and his successor takes over, will the cold war continue? He seems to think so as apparently the struggle will go on for decades.

Ultimately, this is a formal announcement of the Cold War 2. Instead of it being between two superpowers, it's between one superpower and one regional power, with the other superpower watching on the sidelines.
 

sferrin

Junior Member
Registered Member
The most intense conventional fighting was 1965-1972, prior to that was just advisors and after was Vietnamization under Nixon.

After US pulled out ARVN outnumbered PAVN by 50%, with 1.5 million troops in 1974 vs. 700k PAVN and 200k Viet Cong. They folded in 1975.
Different kind of war. Compare the tons of ordinance dropped on North Vietnam compared to what Russia has dropped on Ukraine. It's almost certainly several orders of magnitude different. Hell, the US lost most of the F-105 fleet fighting there. You don't lose planes if your not flying them in harm's way. (Aside from the occasional training accident.)
 

Stealthflanker

Senior Member
Registered Member
I think it's too early to talk about losses of the men, or even materials. Especially with media having itch for "hype first ask question later" and in there they are using dubious or even straight made-up sources, disgusting but i guess that's the way it is.

Like one side will always try to attempt to exaggerate enemy losses (except when that time Russians managed to revive some 4000 men back) and make their own losses small or even straight up make it classified. Like we rarely or maybe never see reports on deaths of Ukrainian generals or commanders.
 

B.I.B.

Captain
Russia's objective is to take full control of Ukraine, from east to west and from north to south. some people talk about how Russia would leave western Ukraine for Poland, in reality Putin will not allow Poland to get even a single Ukrainian Village.
So while the "I stand with Ukraine" crowd would like to believe that Russia will make do with a tiny area in the east (as if Russia is lacking landmass) and leave Ukraine, the reality is that the war is only beginning, as the Russian MoD said all of that was just the first stage.

it's not like Putin just randomly decided to invade Ukraine and is now just making decisions on the fly.
obviously his generals presented him with every single possible scenario of how the war would go, so nothing that happens would surprise them (including the sanctions).
they studied all those scenarios extensively (possibly for several months) and definitely already studied and estimated all the timeframes and casualties in every single city.
Russia sent a relatively small force to Ukraine (only 150-200k, probably because they need the rest of Russian army to guard it's own border plus Belarus against any possible adventure from NATO against Russia/Belarus) so they cannot just blitz through all Ukrainian cities. instead they have to focus on one area after another, this tactic is very similar to the tactic used in Syria.
in Syria the SAA didn't have enough forces to attack all rebel areas simultaneously so they instead chose to encircle and infiltrate rebel areas one after the other while the majority of the rest of the army focusses on just defending and holding territory instead of advancing.
The peace talks will fail, in these kind of wars every body talks about how important it is to have a peace deal but in reality these wars are always decided militarily, the only use of peace talks is PR.
IMO the war will last much longer than some may believe, personally I wouldn't be surprised at all if it lasts till the end of this year.
I dont think so as the WEst is very anti Russian and parts of it were never historically Russian. Parts of it historically belonged to Poland ansd a couple of other eastern European countries.
 

pmc

Major
Registered Member
The point is that ukraine hasnt shown any ability of sustain missile or aviation formations. it barely fly one TB-2 or tochka at a time.
Russian choppers (this maybe largest gunship use ) or fighters crash rate relative to sorties is so low that most air forces in peace time cannot match it.

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SampanViking

The Capitalist
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Super Moderator
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While there's a lot of attention on Mariupol for understandable reasons, there's actually a far more important battle happening around the Izium area right as we speak (has been going on for a few days now). There's a huge fog of war in this area precisely because the fighting is so ferocious and geographically extended. The Russians seem to have captured Izium itself and established pontoons over the Donets River, both of which are significant developments. If the Russians had the numbers here, one major blow would end the war in a few days. But they're only attacking with what looks like 4 or 5 BTGs. What's still unclear to me is the status of Sukha Kamyanka, the village to the south of Izium where heavy battles are raging. And another big unknown is the disposition and concentration of Russian forces on the right bank of the Donets. Anyone have any new details about this sector?
All I can offer you is from my good "friend" Yuri who is saying that the strategic reserve that has been spread across the Southern front is now being concentrated in the South Donbass to help spearhead a massive offensive. Hints were made about the Gorlivka area, but I would take such nods and winks with a big pinch of salt.
No doubt something major is coming very soon.
 
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