Ukrainian War Developments

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lapain

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obj 705A said:
Russia's objective is to take full control of Ukraine, from east to west and from north to south. some people talk about how Russia would leave western Ukraine for Poland, in reality Putin will not allow Poland to get even a single Ukrainian Village.
So while the "I stand with Ukraine" crowd would like to believe that Russia will make do with a tiny area in the east (as if Russia is lacking landmass) and leave Ukraine, the reality is that the war is only beginning, as the Russian MoD said all of that was just the first stage.

it's not like Putin just randomly decided to invade Ukraine and is now just making decisions on the fly.
obviously his generals presented him with every single possible scenario of how the war would go, so nothing that happens would surprise them (including the sanctions).
they studied all those scenarios extensively (possibly for several months) and definitely already studied and estimated all the timeframes and casualties in every single city.
Russia sent a relatively small force to Ukraine (only 150-200k, probably because they need the rest of Russian army to guard it's own border plus Belarus against any possible adventure from NATO against Russia/Belarus) so they cannot just blitz through all Ukrainian cities. instead they have to focus on one area after another, this tactic is very similar to the tactic used in Syria.
in Syria the SAA didn't have enough forces to attack all rebel areas simultaneously so they instead chose to encircle and infiltrate rebel areas one after the other while the majority of the rest of the army focusses on just defending and holding territory instead of advancing.
The peace talks will fail, in these kind of wars every body talks about how important it is to have a peace deal but in reality these wars are always decided militarily, the only use of peace talks is PR.
IMO the war will last much longer than some may believe, personally I wouldn't be surprised at all if it lasts till the end of this year.
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Precisely, the Russian forces made rapid and costly gains in the early phase, they did decapitate Ukraine's control of the air and ability to counter-attack in the outset. The Kiev regime didn't fold down as easily as plan A would have hoped. Therefore Plan B is to move at the LDNR militias pace, disarm and fragment the AFU in the East and resist sanctions. The conflict is set to last at least 9 months, and this will wreck the EU and World economy in the process. Probably tilting the geopolitical axis to the East for the next decades.

'He who doesn't take risks, never drinks champagne' (VVP)

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FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

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Pmichael said:
Yeah… the state of the army caused by crippling corruption is the reason why 3/4 forces are ‚in reserve‘
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US has rarely been tested. The last time they were was in Vietnam. they lost 3k fixed wing aircraft, 5k helicopters, 50k+ own troops killed, 200k+ puppet troops killed. Vietnam had 1% GDP and 10% population of the US.

If Russia lost 10% of that to Ukraine with 1/4 population and 1/8 GDP, it would be called a disaster.
 
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FADH1791

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For why I’m seeing the first phase was to encircle the main cities to prevent freedom of movement and allowing the Ukrainians to reinforce the forces at the Donbas area. Once Mauripol is liberated(any day now) these forces will be used to help with the offensive to encircle the Ukrainian forces in the Donbas region. There is about 65-70k fighters there and that’s Ukraine’s most battle hardened and best fighters outside of their special forces in Kiev. Once their are encircled and wiped out the next step is the cities in the east. This will be bloody and probably be the longest phase. We are talking about Khariv, Chergniv, Sumy, Dnipro etc. However the thing is Ukrainian forces will be fragmented and separated in different cities. Surrounded with no hope of getting relief forces to save them. They will do what they did in Syria. Surround the city, allow the citizens to flee, bomb the city to weaken enemy defenses and send ground troops to finish the job. It won’t be pretty and it will be ugly. The Ukrainians will likely not surrender and make the Russians pay for every city they take. After much of the east is taken the next step is Odessa. The city has a large neo nazi armed presence there so I expect Russia to take it. But the assault will be by land and sea. After all of that Putin will likely give Zelensky a choice. A peace settlement or Kiev under siege and bombed. At that point Ukraine would be cut off from the Azov and Black Sea and more than half their territory is gone. And their economy ruined. So it’s far from over and I believe the pause is to fix their supply lines, solidify the territories they control, bring more manpower and firepower to bear for the next phase.
 
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Pmichael

Junior Member
PhSt said:
corruption in NATO is no different from corruption in Russia. Only reason corruption in Russia is getting more attention is due to NATO propaganda
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Calm down the projection
FairAndUnbiased said:
US has rarely been tested. The last time they were was in Vietnam. they lost 3k fixed wing aircraft, 5k helicopters, 50k+ own troops killed, 200k+ puppet troops killed. Vietnam had 1% GDP and 10% population of the US.

If Russia lost 10% of that to Ukraine with 1/4 population and 1/8 GDP, it would be called a disaster.
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Russia is outpacing the US Vietnam War losses quite handily
 
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Abominable

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If it was just about the Donbass, it wouldn't explain why Russia has been gradually increasing their demands at negotiations. That's according to Zelensky himself. He said the Russians were asking for Kiev and Kharkov.
It also wouldn't explain why cities outside Donbass are currently being integrated into the Russian state.
lapain said:
Precisely, the Russian forces made rapid and costly gains in the early phase, they did decapitate Ukraine's control of the air and ability to counter-attack in the outset. The Kiev regime didn't fold down as easily as plan A would have hoped. Therefore Plan B is to move at the LDNR militias pace, disarm and fragment the AFU in the East and resist sanctions. The conflict is set to last at least 9 months, and this will wreck the EU and World economy in the process. Probably tilting the geopolitical axis to the East for the next decades.

'He who doesn't take risks, never drinks champagne' (VVP)
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How can the Ukrainian state survive for 9 months with no basic infrastructure, let alone the army?

I think the world economy will be fine overall and any damage to the EU will be self inflicted.

I think the smart thing for Germany to do right now is call up Putin and make a deal to split Poland. Just like old times...
 
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Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Bill Blazo said:
The Russians seem to have captured Izium itself and established pontoons over the Donets River, both of which are significant developments. If the Russians had the numbers here, one major blow would end the war in a few days. But they're only attacking with what looks like 4 or 5 BTGs.
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Story of the war so far. So many fronts are stalled because of lack of numbers

The "if only Russia had more numbers" is what the military analysts are going to talk in the future for this war
 
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tank3487

Junior Member
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Bill Blazo said:
The Russians seem to have captured Izium itself and established pontoons over the Donets River, both of which are significant developments. If the Russians had the numbers here, one major blow would end the war in a few days.
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It definitely would not end in few days. Ukraine is still 40 millions country with massive arsenal. With time, strikes on ammo depots/fuel storages would degrade capability. But it would take time.
 
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