Ukrainian War Developments

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FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Russia is a resource rich state but has no manufacturing to utilize it. Corruption is their biggest and greatest enemy. It is why they are not a superpower. Their elites benefits from this corruption and then are lured to western capitals to hide their wealth and enjoy their lifestyle and women. You can say the soviet union fell because Gorbachev sold the decaying empire for some Mcburgers and some fries.

But that world is ending.

For over 30 years, the west has done a fantastic job in keeping Russia weak. They lure the corrupt elites to their lands, thereby tacitly encouraging their corruption and then on the other hand, sell the promises of globalization to them and they tell Russia to play the role of the commodity supplier. Russia supplies the resource and they get the goods and access to western superior tech and even societies for the few elites.
[China was the cheap goods manufacturer and India, the software experts]

Things will change now. A new order is happening and Russia must first gain some self respects and stop selling themselves to the west. Putin's biggest task should be ending the corruption.
Hence why no tears were shed when oligarch yachts got confiscated. Thanks to that, they took out Putin's enemies for him, and as a bonus made the fence sitters realize that if they don't align with Putin nobody is on their side. They ensured that Putin's enemies will have no wealth or power and Putin's allies retain their wealth and power.

But they claim they don't like Putin.

????????????
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Putin is a big part of this exact problem though and it is my biggest criticism of him as a leader. When he was first elected president and started his war against the oligarchs they should have all been thrown under the bus; instead he allowed those that would be loyal to him to retain their wealth and has put other yes men in charge of powerful companies, all whilst probably making himself the wealthiest of them all.
Putin just applied classical socialist theory. The state needed to control the commanding heights of the economy i.e. energy, transportation, telecoms, and media. And if you think he is stuffing himself with money, what about Biden and his son? The fact is we have no proof Putin is stuffing himself with money. While the same is not true for Biden. I do not know how he has not been impeached already.

I wonder, before this war started, how much support small businesses in Russia receive which have interests outside of oil/gas/metals in comparison to how much oligarchs have spent abroad on trophy assets like property, football clubs, yachts.
If you believe the US all you need is low taxes. Russia has 15% flat tax rate. And as long as you keep your nose out of the commanding heights of the economy the government will not interfere with you. If anything I think the major problem Russia still has is a lack of enforcement of anti-competition laws. They need to clean up the judiciary system. But that is not something which will be easy to do.

tl;dr When it comes to corruption in Russia specifically, the system that Putin set up is way more to blame than anything the West could have hoped to accomplish.
Yes it would have been better if Russia just made corruption legal like the US does with lobbying. Do know a lot of people copy Pelosi's husband's stock portfolio? He always seems to miraculously know which stocks go up and down before it happens.
 

Richard Santos

Captain
Registered Member
If russia manage to achieve some form of cosmetically reasonable outcome with respect to ukraine, such as leaving a reasonably independent looking ukraine that still has most of it territory, or offering some russia territory in trade for ukrainian territory it annexed, then I think the much of the extraterritorial effect of western sanction regime will slough off quickly.

Western sanction will no doubt remain in place for the foreseeable future with any possible outcome in ukraine, but their ability through threats to extraterritorialize the sanction onto other powers will swiftly decline unless Putin did something really odious to end the war, such as using tactical nukes.

Russia using tactical nukes will be an extremely bad outcome because it says having nukes not only make you immune, it also enables you to use the nukes on those without nukes whenever you want without too much consequence.

If that were to happen south Korea, japan, taiwan, even indonesia, will all have their own indigenous nukes in under 5 years.
 

Coalescence

Senior Member
Registered Member
He just applied classical socialist theory. The state needed to control the commanding heights of the economy i.e. energy, transportation, telecoms, and media. And if you think he is stuffing itself with money, what about Biden and his son? The fact is we have no proof Putin is stuffing himself with money. While the same is not true for Biden. I do not know how he has not been impeached already.


If you believe the US all you need is low taxes. Russia has 15% flat tax rate. And as long as you keep your nose out of the commanding heights of the economy the government will not interfere with you. If anything I think the major problem Russia still has is a lack of enforcement of anti-competition laws. They need to clean up the judiciary system. But that is not something which will be easy to do.


Yes it would have been better if Russia just made corruption legal like the US does with lobbying. For example do you do know a lot of people copy Pelosi's husband's stock portfolio? He always seems to miraculously know which stocks go up and down before it happens.
Wait why was I quoted, I didn't say any of that lmao
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
If anything I think the major problem Russia still has is a lack of enforcement of anti-competition laws. They need to clean up the judiciary system. But that is not something which will be easy to do
I remember reading that when asked, most of Chinese private companies didnt want to invest in Russia because of its judiciary system and they wanted more law protections for their investments.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
Russia's main problem selling manufactured goods on the global market is competing with a multitude of countries already much better doing those including China. Add to that restricted access to transport, technology, finances, attractive markets and everything in between due to sanctions from the West and I simply don't see Russia having much chance of succes transitioning away from gas, oil and natural ressources as the main source of revenue for the foreseeable future.
Some good points though.
When was the last time you used something made in Russia? As far as I'm aware most manufactured goods from Russia goes to ex Soviet countries and Africa.
Transport could be an issue, but lots of countries manage without national airlines. A middle eastern or Chinese airline could take over the Russian market if needed. Loss of the use of Russian airspace will quickly kill all European-Asia routes for companies that
Finances - good. Get rid of them.
Anything Russia needs it can get via China. This is no different to Lithuania using Germany to bypass Chinese sanctions. Good luck sanctioning China.

From what I can see sanctions don't seem to be affecting Russia much at all. Hence the need to sanction Russian dogs, cats, trees and dead composers.

Europe and America seem close to economic collapse to me with the rising fuel prices, and desperate attempts to control oil prices and the cost of living. And that's before Russia has reduced oil/gas supplies, let alone cut it off.

With all that going on, what happens now if the Israelis try something in Palestine and OPEC decides to embargo the west again?
 

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
The people responsible for the genocide of Iraq are well known as they have no shame and do not hide their complicity. As NATO isolates itself more and more they will find the world around them shrinking and soon there will be no place for them to run to. They won't feel safe even in their own countries.
It can become a problem because they will be cornered. Russian got cornered with Nato expansion and look what happened... Nothing good about isolating parts of the globe, it cause only tension and from tension war. Nobody want a direct war with nuclear country but if one of them is cornered bad, it would use them for deterrence or attack and war will happen.
 

enroger

Junior Member
Registered Member
No commodity-export orientation country has been able to successfully transform to a manufacturing powerhouse so far,they all suffer from dutch disease to certain degree. Latin America tried protectionism and domestic substitution but failed, It's going to be a tough task for Russia.

True to a certain extent. I'd say the failure has mostly to do with weak government and strong foreign intervention, Latin America in particular is "too far from heaven, too close to America"

On the contrary, the east Asian success models all starts with strong or even dictatorship government. So, yes it is no doubt going to be tough for Russia but I won't count them out, we shall see.
 

4Runner

Junior Member
Registered Member
This US Commerce Secretary seems to be tech illiterate. With such fine people doing trade policy I am sure it is going to work just great.

"If the Chinese send semiconductors then we will deny the Chinese use of that software" I am paraphrasing her here. Makes perfect sense right?

.....
That. People like her was the main reason I did not vote in last election. I don't think she actually understands much of what her aids prepared for her photo op. I also don't think her aides are real techies. And unfortunately this is a common scene now here in the States. Sigh...sigh...fainting...
 
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