Even the ISW stated such regarding the encirclement:
"We are unable to corroborate most of these claims, particularly the claimed encirclement of large groups of Russian forces or the liberation of Irpin. The head of the Kyiv Oblast military administration stated on March 22 that Russian forces still controlled Bucha and Hostomel, that Ukrainian forces could conduct only local counterattacks, and that Ukrainian troops were preparing for a larger offensive operation—all of which would suggest that Ukrainian troops have likely not yet encircled Russian troops in these areas.[7] These Ukrainian claims may reflect the expectation that the Ukrainian counteroffensive will continue and cut off Russian forces currently in the Irpin salient. We will continue to monitor the situation closely and update our assessment and map if and when we find clear corroborating evidence of these claimed Ukrainian advances."
I think they should have left the part with Russian losses out of their assessment entirely. Just too speculative at the moment and most likely grossly exaggerated even from somewhat reputable sources. But that's just my opinion hence the "controversial" head line.
I saw the disclaimer. But there's no point in putting that if you're going to base all your assessments off it.
People here have to remember that the assessments are done from sources filled to the brink with misinformation and fog of war inaccuracies. ISW doesn't have direct inside access to the military command of either sides with 100% accurate information of current forces and operations. That would be totally unreasonable of us to demand. They are just trying their best to make some sense out of the same sources available to the rest of us. I think they do an overall decent job.
As many of us here have pointed out, we are only getting one side of the story. There is very little information coming out of Russia, because it is all being censored.
If they had any integrity they would point out that the claims being parroted by politicians & mainstream media make zero sense and are likely part of a government orchestrated information warfare campaign. If anything they are harming the Ukrainian cause as it isn't showing how desperate their situation really is.
Instead they're playing along with the fairytale that Ukraine divisions can appear out of nowhere and encircle the enemy with no air support, Ukrainians can achieve a 10-1 K/D ratio despite inferior firepower, Russian soldiers are all demoralised with frostbite and running each other over with tanks while the Ukrainians are all celebrating and making tiktok videos. Putting an asterisk at the end and saying this may not be 100% accurate doesn't make it okay. It's one thing for the general public to swallow all this propaganda, but for people who are supposed to know better?
