Ukrainian War Developments

Gringo(and pets) foreign policy basically revolves around provocation, feign surprise at the reaction their provocation causes and then use the reaction to push a media campaing to make its population lust for blood and support a war.

Problem is, they have lost the plot so thoroughly and in so much denial of their decline, they fail to realize a war against China or Russia won't be a far away thing they only get to watch on TV or their video games and that the bombs will land in their back yards.

China supports Russia on Ukraine

Man, and you have anglos actually believing Russia and China don't get along at all and that that's a good thing for the US, lol

Anlsvrthng said:

I recognised the reason behind the ukraine wirtschaft .

The USA gas producers become lazy in the past few years, and haven't moved ahead the projects .

The USA nat gas production peaked in 2020, and now flatlining, and so the LNG export capacity.

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From the perspective of the U.S., we have an economic reason for them to terminate the Nordstream operation, but more importantly, a geo-political one. Using the Nordstream gas pushes Europe closer to Russia, which is the last thing we need to see happen. Europe is the biggest stake for the U.S.
From the perspective of the EU, Nordstream is very important for their survival. All this green stuff means they won't burn coal or have more nuclear plants. Gas power plants are needed for their industry going forward. U.S. gas is unreliable and very expensive (you have to ship them across the ocean in special tankers). Your charts illustrates the additional danger that we simply don't have the gas to export to EU that they needed. The U.S. already exert undue influence in EU and Biden had not changed the American First policy that was started with Trump. Russia mainly just want the EU to back off from Ukraine etc, so their increased influence from having Nordstream II coming online does not translate into more coercion for EU to cut its own throat in other areas. With the new administration in Germany, we are seeing a call to stop the Nordstream II operation. There is no other way to explain this except that the U.S. is pulling the string.

reservior dogs said:

From the perspective of the U.S., we have an economic reason for them to terminate the Nordstream operation, but more importantly, a geo-political one. Using the Nordstream gas pushes Europe closer to Russia, which is the last thing we need to see happen. Europe is the biggest stake for the U.S.
From the perspective of the EU, Nordstream is very important for their survival. All this green stuff means they won't burn coal or have more nuclear plants. Gas power plants are needed for their industry going forward. U.S. gas is unreliable and very expensive (you have to ship them across the ocean in special tankers). Your charts illustrates the additional danger that we simply don't have the gas to export to EU that they needed. The U.S. already exert undue influence in EU and Biden had not changed the American First policy that was started with Trump. Russia mainly just want the EU to back off from Ukraine etc, so their increased influence from having Nordstream II coming online does not translate into more coercion for EU to cut its own throat in other areas. With the new administration in Germany, we are seeing a call to stop the Nordstream II operation. There is no other way to explain this except that the U.S. is pulling the string.

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China has also signed some very long term LNG contracts with US producers (EU left behind lol)

As for the new German administration playing tough with the Nord Stream 2, they will back down once the German industry starts making noises
As you have said, NSII is Germany's solution for decarbonization and "greening" its inudstries

Regarding the US, its playing a winning hand here. Whatever it happens it will gain something. Even if a war happens between Ukraine-Russia, it will be at EU's doorstep, with millions of refugees and trade disruption which would hit many EU's countries economies (another bonus for the US)

Overbom said:

China has also signed some very long term LNG contracts with US producers (EU left behind lol)

As for the new German administration playing tough with the Nord Stream 2, they will back down once the German industry starts making noises
As you have said, NSII is Germany's solution for decarbonization and "greening" its inudstries

Regarding the US, its playing a winning hand here. Whatever it happens it will gain something. Even if a war happens between Ukraine-Russia, it will be at EU's doorstep, with millions of refugees and trade disruption which would hit many EU's countries economies (another bonus for the US)

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With regard to Ukraine, why would the government commit suicide by amassing large number of troops to take back the Russian enclaves knowing the U.S. and EU is not coming to their aid militarily and their current military will last only a few hours? Obviously, the U.S. is pushing them to do this, but this is done mainly for Western Europe. We need to continue our control of Western Europe. A Ukraine Russian conflict is just the ticket. This also delay the operation of Nordstream II.

reservior dogs said:

Obviously, the U.S. is pushing them to do this, but this is done mainly for Western Europe. We need to continue our control of Western Europe. A Ukraine Russian conflict is just the ticket. This also delay the operation of Nordstream II.

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Never trust nationalists to be rational.
A Ukraine-Russia conflict would be a blessing for the US. It would force the EU to get closer to the US and put crippling sanctions towards Russia

So as the world moves towards Cold War 2, the US would have managed to deal such a big blow to Russia that it would take a decade for it to recover.
This would economically and diplomatically knockout Russia from the grand scheme of things and leave China "alone" without significant Russian help

As such, from US+puppets vs China + Russia it would become US+puppets vs China + very weakened Russia
That's a winning hand for the US. Minus points for distracting it from the Indo-Pacific and leaving a lot of space for China to make moves

All in all, even with some disadvantages I see this as a net positive for the US. As such, IMO war is coming between Ukraine and Russia

Overbom said:

Never trust nationalists to be rational.
A Ukraine-Russia conflict would be a blessing for the US. It would force the EU to get closer to the US and put crippling sanctions towards Russia

So as the world moves towards Cold War 2, the US would have managed to deal such a big blow to Russia that it would take a decade for it to recover.
This would economically and diplomatically knockout Russia from the grand scheme of things and leave China "alone" without significant Russian help

As such, from US+puppets vs China + Russia it would become US+puppets vs China + very weakened Russia
That's a winning hand for the US. Minus points for distracting it from the Indo-Pacific and leaving a lot of space for China to make moves

All in all, even with some disadvantages I see this as a net positive for the US. As such, IMO war is coming between Ukraine and Russia

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Russia will not invade unless Ukraine make a move. So far, what I can see from the Ukraine side is bluster. It is one thing to hold a knife to your own neck and scream like a mad woman. They would not really dare to actually commit suicide with no military aid from U.S. or EU. Even after the Russians invade and annihilate Ukraine militarily, they will not stay, they will pull back to the current border and leave a substantially weakened Ukraine to deal with the aftermath.

Russia was much weaker before and now is getting stronger. Selling gas with Nordstream II will add to their finances, but with energy prices much weaker before, they were at their most weakened state at that point. Even during that time, they fought and won in
Syria. Now their export will surge simply due to higher energy prices. Further sanctions such as kicking them out of the SWIFT system will have some very horrible repercussions for the U.S., Given that we just want to control Europe, going this far will do more harm to the U.S. Europe will set up an alternative system to bypass the SWIFT so they can do business with Russia. This will accelerate the decline of the U.S. dollar.

Of course the Ukraine conflict will benefit the U.S. and that is why it is happening. In the end, the world will still need energy from Russia, so their position will not substantially weaken. The Chinese are buying a lot of energy from them. I think the most difficult times are behind them. With the economy and other issues such a mess in the U.S. and EU, it is actually we who are on relative decline in the intermediate term. This decline will accelerate in the coming years. Putin just have to hold out for a decade and ensure a smooth transition to a government that will not sell out Russian interest after he departs, the geo-political situation will begin to flip in their favor. Given that he is just under 70, this is very doable.

In the current alliance between Russia and China, Russia contributes by being an independent military power that constrains the actions of the U.S. in Eurasia. We see this in Syria and Afghanistan. Their role in this will not substantially change going forward, Nordstream or no Nordstream. The economic competition and other heavy lifting are mainly done by China, so a small change in their economic status will not change the calculus in this alliance.

reservior dogs said:

In the current alliance between Russia and China, Russia contributes by being an independent military power that constrains the actions of the U.S. in Eurasia. We see this in Syria and Afghanistan. Their role in this will not substantially change going forward, Nordstream or no Nordstream. The economic competition and other heavy lifting are mainly done by China, so a small change in their economic status will not change the calculus in this alliance.

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Good point. Russia greatest contribution to the China-Russia alliance is their military. Their economy is relative small change but it can still be sustained by selling to China (if US/EU go for the nuclear SWIFT sanction)

Anyway, as the previously posted article said, China supports Russia on the Ukraine issue

Overbom said:

China supports Russia on Ukraine

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China pledges support for Russian demand for an ironclad Western guarantee of no NATO troops in Ukraine. (Akin to Chinese policies in North Korea, treating Ukraine as a buffer zone). China has not pledged support for Crimean annexation or it's other questionable tactics in Donbass region. This is the right move from China.