Ukrainian War Developments

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GodRektsNoobs

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I genuinely think discussing alleged casualty counts released to the public is mostly pointless since the data is not verifiable by any of us here. Your KIA guesses just seem to be based on alleged casualty counts published by news agencies, but with a range of a couple thousand. My question to you would be how could you possibly independantly verify these published figures?

Typically a real time assessment of casualties in war requires officers commanding in the field to regularly send casualty reports to their higher command. The higher command can then aggregate the reports and pass it on up until we get a final casualty report. This process in a large army could involve hundreds or thousands of officers sending reports on a somewhat regular basis. My point is a cumulative casualty report should have hundreds if not thousands of reports/documents supporting it. Do you really think the Russian or Ukrainian military are going to release their internal reports/documents in the middle of a war?

The above paragraph also assumes that casualty reports are even being produced. I doubt that the top priority of Ukrainian troops encircled in Mariupol is submitting a timely and accurate casualty report. In similar dire situations military units may simply be unable to produce a casualty report due to being destroyed or losing communications with higher command. Another problem could be documentation being lost/destroyed or falling behind paperwork due to an overburdened or failing command and control system.

An alternative casualty counting method is to analyze medical data instead of military casualty reports. But again, do you really think the Russian or Ukrainian military are going to release their internal medical reports/documents in the middle of a war? A break down of the military medical system would also rapidly inflate casualties. Care to guess the WIA (wounded in action) counts or the number of soldiers in a hospital bed right now? What is the state of the Russian and Ukrainian military medical system (shrugs, we don't know)?

The last resort in casualty counting is to simply perform a population census after the war is over.

The other complicating factor is Russian air superiority and artillery difference. Has the Russian military established a decisive advantage in firepower over the Ukrainian forces? Historical battles show that the side with a major advantage in firepower can inflict a disproportionate amount of casulaties (we are talking 3x, 5x or in extreme cases 10x the casualties). This is why many were extremely skeptical of early alleged casualty counts where Russian losses were many times higher than Ukrainian losses for no apparant reason. Sure NATO can keep sending MANPADS or ATGMS to Ukraine, but they can't replace the warplanes, artillery or tank losses.
You are talking about media that calculated that there are millions of Uyghurs in camps, and that Taliban suffered so much losses in the hands of NATO that they don't have manpower to capture all of Afghanistan.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
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Such bravery, Hong Kong rioters didn't even last a day in Ukraine and flee before entering Ukraine.
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All participants in the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Foreign Volunteer Corps, including those serving as medics, must sign a contract before entering Ukraine. The validity period of the military contract is set at the end of martial law in Ukraine - that is to say, the service period of the military personnel is until the end of the war, and there is no definite end point. In other words, once in, the two have no right to leave Ukraine as long as the war is not over.

This clause surprised them, and they were suddenly a little overwhelmed. "I didn't think we'd be home forever, and they'd put away our passports," Spencer said.

For the contract given by the Ukrainian side, Alice's first reaction was to resist even more strongly. She said: "I do volunteer work, not for high pay and good benefits, but at least for the right to be able to quit at any time."

Just when the two were anxious about the terms of the contract, several volunteer soldiers from other countries took the initiative to strike up a conversation. The excitement and eagerness of the people around them made the two Hong Kongers even more hesitant.

"They were probably a bunch of gun enthusiasts...like obsessed," Spencer described. The impatient attitude of the surrounding people in the face of the war made them, who were originally enthusiastic, think twice.

After some ideological struggle, the two decided to "restrain their horses" at the last moment and return to Poland on their own.


In their own words, they were full of enthusiasm from the beginning, but they seemed to change their minds in the end. Alice admitted frankly, "The gap in my heart is too big."

However, the two also felt that they did not expect to make a commitment to volunteer indefinitely, because they did not know when the war would end, nor did they know "whether their psychological quality can last for that long."
Fucking idiots I tell you. The mere fact that these bozos, and losers thought that volunteering in a hot war zone, against a military juggernaut is the height of utter stupidity combined with a massive dose of ignorance. Which further solidifies my disgust for these types of folks who grew up in relative comfort living in a very safe city of Hong Kong, likewise to most folks who live in the western world. They have no appreciation of how relatively lucky, and privileged they are compared to most folks around their age.
 

RottenPanzer

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Larry C. Johnson, former CIA analyst and conservative looney makes a very interesting analysis of the situation in Ukraine

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"Russia’s arrival in Kiev within three days of the invasion also caught my attention. I recalled that the Nazi’s in Operation Barbarossa took seven weeks to reach Kiev and the required 7 more weeks to subdue the city. The Nazis had the advantage of not pulling punches to avoid civilian casualties and were eager to destroy critical infrastructure. Yet many so-called American military experts claimed that Russia was bogged down. When a 24 mile (or 40 mile, depends on the news source) was positioned north of Kiev for more than a week, it was clear that Ukraine’s ability to launch significant military operations had been eliminated. If their artillery was intact, then that column was easy pickings for massive destruction. That did not happen. Alternatively, if the Ukrainian’s had a viable fixed wing or rotary wing capability they should have destroyed that column from the air. That did not happen. Or, if they had a viable cruise missile capability they should have rained down hell on the supposedly stalled Russian column. That did not happen. The Ukrainians did not even mount a significant infantry ambush of the column with their newly supplied U.S. Javelins.
Comparing German invasion of Ukraine SSR especially Kiev with the current one is unfair mainly because of the Russians using Belarus as their staging point to attack Kiev with Belarus bordering the Ukrainian capital, while Germans literally started their invasion through Poland and they had to push back and encircle many Soviet units before they reach Kiev
Ukrainian armour still hiding among flats this time covered with carpets for extra concealment. :D


I'm pretty sure that's Russian VDV BMDs
 

GodRektsNoobs

Junior Member
Registered Member
Rumours on twitter that this was the video that got the second mercenary base hit:

There's been no confirmation from western sources or evidence from the Russians.

Whatever happened it's clear that the subreddit is now being managed as a CIA operation. Every few days someone with experience and a brain cell shows up and tells everyone that it's a stupid idea to go fight in Ukraine even if you have experience in Iraq/Afghanistan. They get deleted and downvoted while more people post encouraging each other to go to Ukraine. 90% of people seem to think they will be able to be medics when they go, apparently armies are 90% medics who watch while the 10% fight it out. Ukraine has conscripted all doctors in their country, I doubt they need any medics. The fact that western European countries made it illegal to travel to Ukraine to fight doesn't seem to have stemmed the numbers going there, and I don't think America has tried stopping anyone at all.

Putin could end this war tomorrow if he started dropping FOABs on west Ukrainian cities until Zelensky surrenders. Everyone knows that. But it seems he wants it to drag on. Whatever it costs to maintain the current position for Russia is going to be much less compared to the amount NATO is pumping into Ukraine to keep it floating, let alone the damage being done to the European economy from the sanctions.

Somehow NATO have turned this conflict between two countries into a Vietnam for themselves. Maybe China should just keep things as they are for a few months, or even a year? As long as China doesn't join in directly I doubt it'll make relations much worse. Soon America/Europe will start begging China for help again. If they start threatening China as they are trying to do now then put pressure on Taiwan.
I think it's just like how they managed COIVD: half incompetence, half deliberate attempt to weed out the idiots in their society social Darwinism style. The elites aren't gonna let these people stay and turn into alt-right rednecks - they already had a taste of that Jan 6, 2021.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
Did Ukrainians hire baghdad bob or something ? Would explain Maikeru posting nonsense here.
Folks are just in a state of shock that their precious Europe is experiencing what they have almost been doing their entire existence, and that's war. They thought they were beyond civilized, end of history and all that liberal clap trap. They simply drank their own kool-aid.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
Interesting video.
I watched the complete video on this. JM had a talk with a bunch of Ole timers like Ray McGovern, and a couple of geriatrics who served in the U.S. military and intelligence discussing the Russian special operations kick the Nazis out of Ukraine.
 
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