This is how you deal with the West. We could learn a few good lessons from the Russians and Belarussians.
Ukrainian War Developments
- Thread starter james smith esq
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So here's what I think will happen. Two things are possible: either Ukraine's military collapses, or the regime collapses.
In Iraq it was the military that collapsed, the remained intact right to the end once NATO entered Baghdad. In the Taliban conquest of Afghanistan it was the regime that collapsed even though the Taliban were happy to wait outside Kabul and let the Americans leave in their own time. They were forced to enter Kabul to restore order.
It's hard to say which will happen first as Ukraine is heavily using propaganda to paint a rosy picture for both. This is amplified by the fact western media is fully endorsing it, creating their own propaganda and opposing takes are being silenced. This happened in Afghanistan a bit, but nothing like what we're seeing today.
Leave aside the state of the Ukrainian military, and look at at the civilian side. It takes a lot of moving parts to keep a country running, and Ukraine in the state it is has had a lot removed. How are they bringing in food, fuel and other essentials? Rail, sea and air are completely severed, Russia does seem to have left the roads to Poland open for now. Even though a lot of Ukrainians have left the country, there are still 30+ million there. That's a lot of mouths to feed and keep content. What happens if people find out the leaders have escaped, or some other rumour is spread? People may turn on the government and it could get very ugly.
There does seem to be a significant deterioration in civil control over the past few days, starting from when Zelensky weirdly missed a meeting. The same day there was an announcement for a 36 hour curfew in Kiev, that's a lot even for a city at war. He's also now called for the banning of all parties except for his own and the nazis, and arrests of journalists. Again, that's something you do if things are bad domestically and you need to restore order. There's been a big uptick in videos of street justice being meted out.
To me it does look like Kiev is days away from collapsing.
In Iraq it was the military that collapsed, the remained intact right to the end once NATO entered Baghdad. In the Taliban conquest of Afghanistan it was the regime that collapsed even though the Taliban were happy to wait outside Kabul and let the Americans leave in their own time. They were forced to enter Kabul to restore order.
It's hard to say which will happen first as Ukraine is heavily using propaganda to paint a rosy picture for both. This is amplified by the fact western media is fully endorsing it, creating their own propaganda and opposing takes are being silenced. This happened in Afghanistan a bit, but nothing like what we're seeing today.
Leave aside the state of the Ukrainian military, and look at at the civilian side. It takes a lot of moving parts to keep a country running, and Ukraine in the state it is has had a lot removed. How are they bringing in food, fuel and other essentials? Rail, sea and air are completely severed, Russia does seem to have left the roads to Poland open for now. Even though a lot of Ukrainians have left the country, there are still 30+ million there. That's a lot of mouths to feed and keep content. What happens if people find out the leaders have escaped, or some other rumour is spread? People may turn on the government and it could get very ugly.
There does seem to be a significant deterioration in civil control over the past few days, starting from when Zelensky weirdly missed a meeting. The same day there was an announcement for a 36 hour curfew in Kiev, that's a lot even for a city at war. He's also now called for the banning of all parties except for his own and the nazis, and arrests of journalists. Again, that's something you do if things are bad domestically and you need to restore order. There's been a big uptick in videos of street justice being meted out.
To me it does look like Kiev is days away from collapsing.
From the green screen performances, I think it's clear that Zelensky is no longer in Kiev, perhaps not in Ukraine. If he still is in Kiev, the only explanation for the third-rate special effects is that he's too afraid to stick his head out of his hidey-hole for ten minutes because that would be enough for the Russians to get him.
I have been wrong before and I will be again. Something I have liked about this forum is when I confess I was wrong and admit it, people are accepting rather than mocking.
A question for the forum: how is the MT-LB actually used by the Russians in Ukraine? Is it being used as an APC? Or...? There have been a number lost and what role they play is fairly important for the remaining forces of the Russian Armed Forces. If they are support vehicles, that's one thing. If they are APCs, that's another.
"Ukraine has already informed Russia that Ukraine will not give up the city of Mariupol after Russia demanded Ukrainian forces lay down their arms in the city."
So its an APC in its normal use case then?
Rogozin (ROSCOSMOS head) is threatening to do something if he doesn't get some sort of response from the other nations using the ISS. This is related to the sanctions on Russia for the Russo-Ukrainian War.
International response has been muted. Rogozin makes a lot of blustering statements, tbh.
ROSCOSMOS posted this video earlier on telegram (reposted onto twitter):
Not sure if its related or not.
International response has been muted. Rogozin makes a lot of blustering statements, tbh.
ROSCOSMOS posted this video earlier on telegram (reposted onto twitter):
Not sure if its related or not.
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