Ukrainian War Developments

Darkon112 said:

Indeed, If Russia is going to fail with their gamble and if by a small chance it's going to fall to the degree as in the 90's. That means a market that will be closed for China. As well the resources and Russia might end up as additional springboard to NATO. Then of course the access and influences NATO will have on kazakhstan, Mongolia, etc.

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What does "if Russia is going to FAIL with their gamble" even mean exactly?

How do you operationally define "Failure" for Russia in this Ukrainian war? and why should China unconditionally supply military aid to Ukrainian war to avert said "Russian Failure/Defeat/Collapse", when the operational definition of "Failure" is unclear?

Phead128 said:

So you are saying China should risk it's relationship with US and supply military aid to Russia's Ukraine War in order to avoid Regime Change due to Color Revolutions?

That... doesn't make sense. Military aid to Ukraine war is separate from Color Revolutions in Russia.... I don't see the connection.

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I think his point is that if the Russian military fails and Putin is forced to retreat it will make him very unpopular domestically. He'll be seen as a failure and it could lead to a CIA sponsored colour revolution, or a coup from someone around him.
If he wins, the opposite happens of course. His people will love him for taking back Russian territory and standing up to NATO and he'll be stronger than ever.

Phead128 said:

What does US fomenting a Color Revolution in Russia have to do with Chinese military aid to the Ukrainian war?

Are you saying that US sanctions can cause poor economic conditions for Color Revolution in Russia? What about US sanctions in Iran and North Korea, where are the color revolutions there? China can provide partial economic support to keep Russia afloat, but why is military aid necessary for Ukrainian war?

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How will the Russian populace react if the Ukrainian venture failed for whatever reason?
Tell me, what is the purpose of all the sanctions imposed on Russia by the West? What does the West expect the economic pains do to the Russian people and the reactions the West is hoping to see?
Iran and North Korea are the only the few countries that withstood the Western pressure. Many more couldn’t.

SilentObserver said:

The fall of Mariupol to Russian forces would be a major milestone in the conflict. It will free up forces for a northern offensive and the bulk of Ukranian forces in the East will face encirclement.

Russian forces would be able to consolidate their logistics network in Eastern Ukraine and push linearly in the East until they reach Kyiv. They will be in a much better logistical position once railways can be utilized and road networks under their control can be connected.
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Any news on the reinforcement from Ossetia and from elsewhere ? Russian will need some troops and material to replace exhausted ones.

Abominable said:

I think his point is that if the Russian military fails

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but isn't Russia winning?

vincent said:

How will the Russian populace react if the Ukrainian venture failed for whatever reason?

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but isn't Russia winning?

So why should China supply military aid to the Ukrainian war if Russia is already winning?

Atomicfrog said:

So Irak is going good these days ? We will see how Ukraine is going in 20 years...

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Iraq might been better of today if not caught in the ongoing rivalry between the U.S. and Iran.
And had found a workable solution to its problematic divide among Sunni/Shia/Kurds without constant interference from practically the whole M.E.
Ukraine is nothing compared to that mess.

Phead128 said:

So why should China supply military aid to the Ukrainian war if Russia is already winning?

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My support for military aid to Russia predicated on the fact Russia requested military from China. If Russia never did, then my point is moot

vincent said:

How will the Russian populace react if the Ukrainian venture failed for whatever reason?
Tell me, what is the purpose of all the sanctions imposed on Russia by the West? What does the West expect the economic pains do to the Russian people and the reactions the West is hoping to see?
Iran and North Korea are the only the few countries that withstood the Western pressure. Many more couldn’t.

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I don't think it will fail. It will be way more costly and probably will calm down any Russian ambitions for at least 20 years. No more American cars sold in Russia and American goods (not a lot athat China cannot sell) ... for the rest the economic shift will go elsewhere. Russia will still sell gaz and oil west until China eat all what Russia can offer.

Atomicfrog said:

I don't think it will fail. It will be way more costly and probably will calm down any Russian ambitions for at least 20 years. No more American cars sold in Russia and American goods (not a lot athat China cannot sell) ... for the rest the economic shift will go elsewhere. Russia will still sell gaz and oil west until China eat all what Russia can offer.

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Why calm?

The political objective of Russia is not related to Ukraine, but to make free of easter europe of USA weapons and military.

vincent said:

My support for military aid to Russia predicated on the fact Russia requested military from China. If Russia never did, then my point is moot

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Let's see the reasons why US lied about Russia requesting aid:

a) Russia is a military superpower with extensive armament and weapons industry.
b) Russia is already winning the war in Ukraine.
c) Russia only committed a fraction of it's army to Ukraine, plenty of supplies/reserves/ammunition remaining
d) China only STEALS AND COPIES from Russia, m'kay? /sarcasm
e) Russia historically never bought any advanced weapons from China.
f) Russia has been interested in high-end drones from China for a long time, negotiations likely ongoing and predate invasion.
g) Russia is fighting a third-rate weakling, why does it need help after just 2 weeks?

All this smells like an attempt to pour dirty water on China as a baddie accomplice. Russia's request for military equipment likely predates the invasion since China has been making leaps/bounds in drone technology. It's deeply suspicious that Russia suddenly needs weapons/equipment from China when it's already winning the war in Ukraine. US is a liar. It stretches a grain of truth to lump China with Russia in a baddie group, it's so desperate to rope China into everything "bad".