Ukrainian War Developments

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tphuang

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I make a categorical distinction between countries that host US troops and ones that don't; I consider the former to be under military occupation. Since South Korea falls into that category, I don't see China ever cooperating with it beyond a certain level. Even if there's a South Korean government that wants to align entirely with China, it won't be able to do much with a US pistol pressed to its skull.

To put the question another way, do you think China and South Korea could ever be close enough that South Korea expels the US troops on its soil and dissolves its alliance with the US? Would that ever be possible without China first becoming powerful enough to be both able and willing to go to war against the US?
yes. I will talk more about it on the Malacca strait thread
I do see some merit to this, that China has to do a little bit of the "hide and bide" thing since it's still building its strength. My own view is that China shouldn't supply complete weapons like WL-II drones. Rather, China should supply components like semiconductors and optics Russia has trouble producing or accessing because of the sanctions. China could also supply non-lethal assistance like trucks and spare parts that Russia could use in its logistics.
so you have no issue with not providing military assistance. As for semiconductors, that's up to the companies themselves to decide.

I'll also note that Europe is pouring weapons into Ukraine like it's going out of style. Somewhat hypocritical of them to complain when someone else helps the other side, no?
One country initiated the invasion.

I disagree with this on a number of levels. Ideologically, I think this is very much China's fight. In The Narrative(tm), Ukraine is an exemplary democracy and bastion of civilization standing against the Asiatic horde. Not only is it disgustingly racist, it's a complete fabrication. Ukraine's government makes Russia's look squeaky clean and it's been perpetrating crimes against humanity with abandon in the Donbass for the last eight years. No matter how false and morally repugnant the narrative is, it's the prevailing narrative in the West - which means the "exemplary democracy" must fall, and China must be seen to have a hand in its fall. This will have a powerful demoralizing effect on the enemy.

Let's say some miracle occurs and Ukraine "wins" (however one defines that). The West will be galvanized and emboldened. It will see that if it stands united it can still shape the world in its favour and will look to continue its crusade. Who's the next target of that crusade, do you think? People develop gambling addictions by winning, not losing; that's why the West can't be allowed to win.

On a strategic level, let's imagine that China is waging a war in the Indo-Pacific to establish its predominance. How do you want Russia to think about this? Would you prefer that they think "China stood by us during our trying time, so we'll stand with them now" or "This is an Asian war. Why should Russia bruise itself over it?" This is a great opportunity to deepen the bonds between Russia and China, and those bonds will be needed in the years and decades to come.
If Ukraine wins, that's the fallout of Russia's epic blunders and terrible planning.

China has 2 major battle right now: Taiwan and SCS. That's where it's geopolitical capital needs to be spent on.

Remember when China sent people in to help Vietnam communists fight America? How well did that work out for China? Is Vietnam bonding over China for years and decades to come?
 

windsclouds2030

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Ukraine MOD confirms coastline under Russian control. Update 1

By Alex Christoforou - 19 March 2022


Ukrainian force has lost access to the Sea of Azov, confirmed by UKR MOD this morning.

Alex: I can't confirm that Zelenskyy's appearance (embedded in his video) was made in Kiev

View attachment 85550
Map of Black Sea and Sea of Azov. Source: screenshot from Alex Christoforou's video 20220319
Has the Russian army failed in Ukraine, and at what cost will it win its war? – Elijah J. Magnier 2022-03-18

Western analysts’ dominant and overwhelming narrative claims the “failure” of Russian military plans in Ukraine. These analysts write with confidence as if they were part of President Vladimir Putin’s military aides-de-camp and have been personally present, overseeing the war plans in every detail of the attack. It is understandable that the mainstream dominates the information platform and enjoys the support of social media – media that amended their rules to accommodate violence relating to the killing of Russian soldiers and Presidents Vladimir Putin and Byelorussian Alexander Lukashenko. But is the mainstream media’s louder voice a measure of its truth? Is the war taking so long for Russia to end? Is the advantage no longer to Russia?

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IMPORTANT:
#Ukraine President @ZelenskyyUa is reconsidering his options to save his country & seriously negotiate with #Russia:
Ukraine’s Defence Ministry said it HAS lost access to the Sea of Azov AND THAT #Russia is tightening its grip around the Sea’s major port of #Mariupol.

 

Overbom

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If Ukraine wins, that's the fallout of Russia's epic blunders and terrible planning.
Nope. Russia getting defeated means that China is next.
I am surprised that you can't understand this simple geopolitical fact.

In simple terms, China needs to to everything it can do to avoid a Russia defeat.
In any case, Russia will win but it is still important to keep in mind the wider geostrategic international environment
 

tphuang

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Nope. Russia getting defeated means that China is next.
I am surprised that you can't understand this simple geopolitical fact.

In simple terms, China needs to to everything it can do to avoid a Russia defeat.
In any case, Russia will win but it is still important to keep in mind the wider geostrategic international environment
Russia does not have enough troops to conquer Ukraine.

And what exactly do you think it means for China to be next? Do you think America is going to invade China? Do you think Europe is going to do that? What can these countries really do? What are you afraid of?

If Russia did not invade Ukraine, what kind of terrible things do you think were going to happen to China?
 

windsclouds2030

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Russia does not have enough troops to conquer Ukraine.

And what exactly do you think it means for China to be next? Do you think America is going to invade China? Do you think Europe is going to do that? What can these countries really do? What are you afraid of?

If Russia did not invade Ukraine, what kind of terrible things do you think were going to happen to China?
There is NO IFs, Russia will certainly win. Ukraine will definitely lose. Just a matter of time.

Just be patient and take some time to see the outcome.

Check this latest one by Elijah J. Magnier, a Veteran War Journalist with over 35-year experience
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May also check the military expert & strategist, ex-Soviet Navy:

Reminiscence of the Future...Andrei Martyanov's Blog
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If Russia down, next is China! All quality geopolitical analysts know about this matter!
Imagine if the west succeed to put a puppet regime in Moscow just like what they did in Kiev in 2014, China will be encircled and will lose the back-to-back ally with rich resources, almost everything that China will need, a source which is safe from sea lane blockade. In short an ally too huge to lose. No, China won't stand idle to see Russia down in any scenario.
 
Finally someone is speaking on behalf of neglected non-white evacuees in Ukraine crisis.
Western MSM has been willfully turning a blind eye on this issue.

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Chinese envoy to UN calls for attention to problems faced by African, Mid-East evacuees in Ukraine crisis

By Global TimesPublished: Mar 18, 2022 10:11 AM

Zhang Jun, China's Permanent Representative to the United Nations (UN) Photo: CFP

Zhang Jun, China's Permanent Representative to the United Nations (UN) Photo: CFP

All refugees, no matter their race, region or ethnicity, should be protected, and the problems that some African and Mideast refugees encountered while evacuating from Ukraine should be paid attention to and properly handled, Zhang Jun, China's permanent representative to the United Nations, stressed at a UN Security Council meeting on refugee issues of the Ukraine crisis on Thursday.
 

RottenPanzer

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Not a tank experto but as far as I am aware, those egg-carton-like structures are used to keep the explosive arrays in their proper angle and position within the bag. In the picture, the array themselves were removed either by the crew or the Ukrainians and only the "egg cartons" are left.

These bags are meant to be field installable and repairable ERA, hence it's simplicity

How could you sure that the explosive arrays were removed?
 
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