yes. I will talk more about it on the Malacca strait threadI make a categorical distinction between countries that host US troops and ones that don't; I consider the former to be under military occupation. Since South Korea falls into that category, I don't see China ever cooperating with it beyond a certain level. Even if there's a South Korean government that wants to align entirely with China, it won't be able to do much with a US pistol pressed to its skull.
To put the question another way, do you think China and South Korea could ever be close enough that South Korea expels the US troops on its soil and dissolves its alliance with the US? Would that ever be possible without China first becoming powerful enough to be both able and willing to go to war against the US?
so you have no issue with not providing military assistance. As for semiconductors, that's up to the companies themselves to decide.I do see some merit to this, that China has to do a little bit of the "hide and bide" thing since it's still building its strength. My own view is that China shouldn't supply complete weapons like WL-II drones. Rather, China should supply components like semiconductors and optics Russia has trouble producing or accessing because of the sanctions. China could also supply non-lethal assistance like trucks and spare parts that Russia could use in its logistics.
One country initiated the invasion.I'll also note that Europe is pouring weapons into Ukraine like it's going out of style. Somewhat hypocritical of them to complain when someone else helps the other side, no?
If Ukraine wins, that's the fallout of Russia's epic blunders and terrible planning.I disagree with this on a number of levels. Ideologically, I think this is very much China's fight. In The Narrative(tm), Ukraine is an exemplary democracy and bastion of civilization standing against the Asiatic horde. Not only is it disgustingly racist, it's a complete fabrication. Ukraine's government makes Russia's look squeaky clean and it's been perpetrating crimes against humanity with abandon in the Donbass for the last eight years. No matter how false and morally repugnant the narrative is, it's the prevailing narrative in the West - which means the "exemplary democracy" must fall, and China must be seen to have a hand in its fall. This will have a powerful demoralizing effect on the enemy.
Let's say some miracle occurs and Ukraine "wins" (however one defines that). The West will be galvanized and emboldened. It will see that if it stands united it can still shape the world in its favour and will look to continue its crusade. Who's the next target of that crusade, do you think? People develop gambling addictions by winning, not losing; that's why the West can't be allowed to win.
On a strategic level, let's imagine that China is waging a war in the Indo-Pacific to establish its predominance. How do you want Russia to think about this? Would you prefer that they think "China stood by us during our trying time, so we'll stand with them now" or "This is an Asian war. Why should Russia bruise itself over it?" This is a great opportunity to deepen the bonds between Russia and China, and those bonds will be needed in the years and decades to come.
China has 2 major battle right now: Taiwan and SCS. That's where it's geopolitical capital needs to be spent on.
Remember when China sent people in to help Vietnam communists fight America? How well did that work out for China? Is Vietnam bonding over China for years and decades to come?