Ukrainian War Developments

ZeEa5KPul said:

Yes, but that's not the quality we object to. Of course China should care about its geopolitical relationships, but it shouldn't make unilateral concessions in the hopes of appeasing hostile countries around it. We could say that China not exporting J-7s to the DPRK in the 2000s was a sound choice given the balance of power at the time, but that's no longer the case. What I worry about - and why my rhetoric is often inflammatory - is an inculcated sense of powerlessness in China. China is no longer weak and shouldn't act and think like it is.

I noticed that you didn't respond to the point I made to you previously about THAAD. Now there's a new South Korean government that has stated that it want to add more THAAD units. How do you think China should respond to this?

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I went to sleep and there were a billion responses to my posts. It would be hard for me to respond to all.

China is extremely powerful. It's not as powerful as America, but it's powerful. You go anywhere in the world these days and you can sense how powerful China is. For much of 90s, 2000s and early 2010s, China just continued to get stronger by keeping as low of a profile as it could. I think it was a pretty smart strategy.

The new South Korean government seems to be led by a Trump figure. Fine, you tell the Koreans of the consequences of their actions. If they go ahead with it, then you retaliate. Shilao's podcasts has been covering this quite well. China knows it can't really have better relationship with Japan and India for historical reasons, but South Korea seems to be a country it can still cooperate with.

ZeEa5KPul said:

This has become a matter of principle quite aside from the merits of the case. When America threatens China and demands that it not help Russia, China has to respond to this outrage. It should now help Russia if for no other reason than to spite America.

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China should look at the surroundings and see what makes sense for itself. If it's only the Biden administration making threats, you can tell them to F off. If other countries are also "please don't do this", then you should listen. And in this case, providing military assistance to Russia is a big deal to the Europeans. They are not asking China to stop trading with the Russians. I don't think it's a lot to listen to their concerns on something that everyone says Russia doesn't even need.

This is a European war. Why should China bruise itself over it?

RottenPanzer said:

i have criticized this video for it's bold claims by based on after combat photos of the T-72B3 but i'm still unsure regarding if my criticism are that correct or not, so i need a tank expert to confirm me of my doubtfulness

the video what i'm implying

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As others mentioned it before me. These "egg cartons" seem to be spacers for the explosive elements of the ERA module. I have no idea if these vehicles "soft" ERA bags are fully equipped or if someone went the cheap route and short changed someone.

No words....

tphuang said:

China knows it can't really have better relationship with Japan and India for historical reasons, but South Korea seems to be a country it can still cooperate with.

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I make a categorical distinction between countries that host US troops and ones that don't; I consider the former to be under military occupation. Since South Korea falls into that category, I don't see China ever cooperating with it beyond a certain level. Even if there's a South Korean government that wants to align entirely with China, it won't be able to do much with a US pistol pressed to its skull.

To put the question another way, do you think China and South Korea could ever be close enough that South Korea expels the US troops on its soil and dissolves its alliance with the US? Would that ever be possible without China first becoming powerful enough to be both able and willing to go to war against the US?

tphuang said:

I don't think it's a lot to listen to their concerns on something that everyone says Russia doesn't even need.

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I do see some merit to this, that China has to do a little bit of the "hide and bide" thing since it's still building its strength. My own view is that China shouldn't supply complete weapons like WL-II drones. Rather, China should supply components like semiconductors and optics Russia has trouble producing or accessing because of the sanctions. China could also supply non-lethal assistance like trucks and spare parts that Russia could use in its logistics.

I'll also note that Europe is pouring weapons into Ukraine like it's going out of style. Somewhat hypocritical of them to complain when someone else helps the other side, no?

tphuang said:

This is a European war. Why should China bruise itself over it?

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I disagree with this on a number of levels. Ideologically, I think this is very much China's fight. In The Narrative(tm), Ukraine is an exemplary democracy and bastion of civilization standing against the Asiatic horde. Not only is it disgustingly racist, it's a complete fabrication. Ukraine's government makes Russia's look squeaky clean and it's been perpetrating crimes against humanity with abandon in the Donbass for the last eight years. No matter how false and morally repugnant the narrative is, it's the prevailing narrative in the West - which means the "exemplary democracy" must fall, and China must be seen to have a hand in its fall. This will have a powerful demoralizing effect on the enemy.

Let's say some miracle occurs and Ukraine "wins" (however one defines that). The West will be galvanized and emboldened. It will see that if it stands united it can still shape the world in its favour and will look to continue its crusade. Who's the next target of that crusade, do you think? People develop gambling addictions by winning, not losing; that's why the West can't be allowed to win.

On a strategic level, let's imagine that China is waging a war in the Indo-Pacific to establish its predominance. How do you want Russia to think about this? Would you prefer that they think "China stood by us during our trying time, so we'll stand with them now" or "This is an Asian war. Why should Russia bruise itself over it?" This is a great opportunity to deepen the bonds between Russia and China, and those bonds will be needed in the years and decades to come.

Jingle Bells said:

I don't think people here care about what both side EXACTLY said and discussed in the actual conference. I think people here care about only the media aspect of the conference, which is an important new dimension of the modern world.

Just like Ghost of Kiev, Mig transfer deals, S-300 transfer deals. All of these does NOT necessarily need to be true in reality. But the ripple effect these incurs as a result of media cover of these, are an important aspect of Media/Information Warfare.

This is why this is an era when Reason and Truth no longer matters; EMOTIONS, allegiance and IMPULSES rule supreme. You're either for us or against us, your words either pleases us or displeases us. Truth, reality, equity has no space in this era.

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It's true US is warping information to serve it's self-interest and agenda, but doesn't mean Americans take it at face-value anymore.

The American public's trust in media outlets has fallen to its lowest level since the 2016 presidential election, according to a new poll.

Only 7 percent of all Americans say they have "a great deal" of trust in reports appearing in newspapers, on television or in other media outlets, and 29 percent said they have "a fair amount" of trust in the media, the Gallup poll

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on Thursday found.

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So the plus side of all the anti-China blah blah is that it's mostly falling on deaf ears since most Americans don't trust MSM anymore. I highly believe all the anti-China blah blah is aimed at Washington elites and paid for by lobbyists of military-industrial complex to beat the war drums for another lucrative Cold War 2.0. The average American doesn't give a shit, nor wants to fight China.

Russia made plenty of mistakes but the biggest was underestimating Ukrainian resistance, holding back their firepower and have bad logistical issues. All of these 3 combined with tough Ukrainian resistance has led us to this point. Many analyst believed that Russia would sweep through eastern Ukraine simply because of the flat terrain. They didn’t foresee Ukraine to resist this hard. Also Ukraine has been prepping for this type of war for 8 years. Digging in defensive position and fortifications. Plus Ukraine has put their most experienced, most equipped fighters in the east. Also the cities are heavily militarized. Essentially they are under martial law with large numbers of Ukrainian fighters. And they have been on a buying spree for the last 8 years. They also get military aid from the west in atgms and manpads which helps defenders fighting an invading force. Bleeding the invaders turning it into a quagmire. Russia is advancing and winning. They changed their tactics and realizing they have to use their full firepower to crush the Ukrainians. For Russia to get a win they have to surround and destroy the Ukrainian forces in the east. Putin was really naive to think that Kiev would surrender quickly.

Strangelove said:

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Russia fires hypersonic missiles in Ukraine​

Moscow has deployed Kinzhal missiles for the first time since the start of its military operation

The Russian military has said it used its state-of-the-art Kinzhal hypersonic missiles to destroy an arms depot near the city of Ivano-Frankivsk in western Ukraine.

The strike with the air-launched missile system took place on Friday, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said during a briefing.

It targeted “a large underground depot of missiles and aerial munitions of the Ukrainian forces” in the village of Deliatyn, he added.
Kinzhal, which means ‘dagger’ in English, was used by the Russian military for the first time since the start of the Ukrainian conflict on February 24.

Those munitions are said to be able to penetrate any existing air defenses by traveling at a whopping speed of up to Mach 10 and constantly maneuvering during their flight
Kinzhal missiles are carried by MiG-31K supersonic interceptor aircraft, which NATO calls ‘Foxhound’.

The hardware is one of several hypersonic systems prepared for the country’s military in recent years, together with the Avangard glider, which is fitted on silo-based ICBMs, and Zircon (Tsirkon) missiles, developed for the navy.

Moscow sent its troops into Ukraine last month following a seven-year standoff over Kiev’s failure to implement the terms of the Minsk agreements, and Russia’s eventual recognition of the breakaway Donbass republics of Donetsk and Lugansk. The German- and French-brokered protocols had been designed to regularize the status of those regions within the Ukrainian state.

Russia has now demanded that Ukraine officially declare itself a neutral country that will never join the US-led NATO military bloc. Kiev insists the Russian offensive was completely unprovoked and has denied claims it was planning to retake the two republics by force.

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BREAKING: Russia has fired hypersonic Kinzhal ("dagger") missiles in Ukraine. Officially, the weapons were used to destroy a munitions depot in Ivano-Frankivsk. In reality, this is a MAJOR deterrent signal to NATO.



There is no plausible reason that the Kinzhal would need to be deployed against Ukraine, given that its air defenses have already been suppressed. It is Russia's single most advanced conventional weapon – 13 times as fast as a tomahawk, with 3x the payload.



Russia's use of the Kinzhal in Ukraine is similar to Trump's use of the MOAB (Mother of All Bombs) in Afghanistan in 2017.

In both instances, the point of the weapons deployment was not the immediate combat effect.

The goal is to menace other adversaries by demoing a system.

Putin's decision to use the Kinzhal is more escalatory than Trump's use of the MOAB, because the Kinzhal is nuclear capable.

Due to its extreme range, it is a "carrier killer" – capable of wiping out an entire U.S. Carrier Strike Group.

It is impossible to overstate what an advanced system the Kinzhal represents.

The West acted like China's test of a hypersonic glider was a "Sputnik moment."

But the Kinzhal achieves hypersonic speed + maneuverability throughout its flight, not merely in the terminal phase.

By firing Kinzhals in Ukraine, Putin is sending a major "do not F with us" message to the West.

He is reminding the world that, whatever logistics challenges his military faces, it retains an edge in absolute bleeding-edge nuclear and conventional weaponry.

Today, Putin has also taken one step closer to the nuclear threshold.

He just demoed Russia's premier tactical-nuke delivery system in Ukraine.

The message to NATO could not be clearer: If you intervene in the conflict, I will use this system against you.

Addendum - Don't take my word that the missile was fired.

Here is confirmation from Russia's Defense Ministry:

Russian language link -- translated title: The Russian military destroyed the ammunition depot of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with Kinzhal missiles 20220319


The claim that use of a hypersonic missile was required due to this being a heavily armored bunker does NOT withstand scrutiny.

Russia has dedicated anti-bunker weapons, like the KAB-500L.

Using the Kinzhal was *clearly* about sending a signal to NATO.

(there are more pics by OP, I just passed two here)

Alleged footage of the Kinzhal missile. I can't tell if the glow is because of a plasma forming around it or just sunlight reflecting off it but it looks cool.


Also some unrest forming in at least one NATO country. Bulgaria is culturally and historically close to Russia. I'm not sure how the people would feel going to war with them.