Ukrainian War Developments

Status
Not open for further replies.

FADH1791

Junior Member
Registered Member
There were a lot of Twitter threads yesterday that Zelensky feels emboldened by the recent decision of Biden to ship so many weapons yo Ukraine.
Allegedly, he is now thinking of more fighting
I agree with this sentiment. He is getting military aid by the west so he feels emboldened. I think this will change once Ukraine has a series of major defeats in Mauripol,Severodonetsk, Khariv,Sumy, Odessa etc. Kiev is embolden because the only major city they lost was Kherson. But that will change. In a month Kiev’s position will be precarious. Their best bet is drag this out by the spring rains. Once the heavy mud season comes Russian forces will be halted and Ukraine may plan a “spring offensive,” with the Russians forces grounded because of the mud. Wouldn’t be surprised that’s what is planned but it sounds like a fairy tale.
 

Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
Its definitely being covered by western media including the BBC, no pregnant instagram influencers being pulled out of the rubble either.

They're also reporting Russian troops reaching the centre of Mariupol, even though no Russian source has confirmed.

Maybe they've finally realised this war is pointless.
They attributed the Mayor of Mariupol as the source of the info of the Russians having reached the centre of the city... Even if there are no Russian sources confirming this, they are not denying it...
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
How can you tell that it isn't Russian? Presumably Oryx is going by the source of the image, and/or on the basis of other vehicles lost nearby in the same incident. Anyway the challenge was that Oryx was posting multiple images of the same vehicle and claiming they were different. There is no evidence of this whatsoever.

You don't need evidence of the whatsoever. Its enough if you can cast reasonable doubt. Hence its always the burden of the one who presents the evidence in the first place that the evidence must be of the quality that presents no doubt.
 

lube

Junior Member
Registered Member
I'm thinking some people in Ukraine's government are drinking the kool-aid.
If they hold out long enough, the Russians will collapse, then they can send in the counteroffensive to mop up and rout the Russians on the field. No need for concessions, or any need to fight to retake the Donbass either as the Russian flee back to their borders.

We'll see if diplomatic talks fail or not. That's a big indicator.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
Has anyone else considered that Zelensky might be under pressure to ”keep up the fight” until certain outcomes of the sanctions have been achieved?
I'm not sure whether it's Zelensky's policy to fight to the last Ukrainian or Biden's. It could be both as well.

This being an American plan to punish Russia doesn't make correlate with the fact that they've spent the last 4 years putting China in the crosshairs. It doesn't make sense to do that and then suddenly turn around and beg Xi for help to stop the Russians. I'm sure all the economic and information warfare being deployed right now were planned to be used against China. It wasn't long ago people were using the term "Xitler". Why show your hand now and waste that on Russia?

At some point one of them will find the losses to be too much to stomach. Being a Ukrainian you'd think it would be Zelensky. If he does, his people will hate him.
 

james smith esq

Senior Member
Registered Member
I agree with this sentiment. He is getting military aid by the west so he feels emboldened. I think this will change once Ukraine has a series of major defeats in Mauripol,Severodonetsk, Khariv,Sumy, Odessa etc. Kiev is embolden because the only major city they lost was Kherson. But that will change. In a month Kiev’s position will be precarious. Their best bet is drag this out by the spring rains. Once the heavy mud season comes Russian forces will be halted and Ukraine may plan a “spring offensive,” with the Russians forces grounded because of the mud. Wouldn’t be surprised that’s what is planned but it sounds like a fairy tale.
The only problem with this strategy is that dug in tanks can be much harder to target and kill than maneuvering tanks. If the Russians are either allowed, or forced by circumstances, to dig-in, and assume a defensive posture, it actually gets more difficult for Ukraine as their offensive maneuvering will put them at greater risk from air-strikes and, ironically, ATGMs.

Edit: And, btw, if any of you has never seen what an automatic grenade-launcher can do, I can assure you, it’s not a weapon you’d want to have to execute an infantry-assault into!
 
Last edited:

james smith esq

Senior Member
Registered Member
You don't need evidence of the whatsoever. Its enough if you can cast reasonable doubt. Hence its always the burden of the one who presents the evidence in the first place that the evidence must be of the quality that presents no doubt.
!!!DAMN!!!

We’ve gone Perry Mason, up in here!
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top