Ukrainian War Developments

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Maikeru

Captain
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There is a video of two Ukrainian Su-25 being blown up in the sky just today. It was posted on this thread. Oryx does not have them in his little list. He still claims only four Ukrainian Su-25 losses since the start of the conflict :rolleyes:. On the very first day the Russians released a video of an airbase they destroyed and it had lots of knocked down Su-25 in it. More than four. People pointed this out to him. He still did not count them.

I saw a lot of double counting of T-80U of the 4th Guards Tank Division by him at one point. I have better things to do than correct his mistakes.
Probably he just didn't get around to it yet, as he said he has a huge backlog of exploded and captured Russian kit. As for the double counting, please tell us where the alleged duplicates are so we can judge for ourselves? There are only 43 T80Us listed at this time.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
Russian losses. IF (and only if) Oryx is remotely accurate, Russia has lost about 14 BTGs + Tank battalions worth of tanks, IFVs and APCs. Others here have pointed out they think Oryx has over reported some kills (different angles of the same equipment), which I find plausible. However, we also know not all of the kills are reported, so I would call their numbers to be a minimum amount of equipment killed to be likewise plausible. For the Russians. Their Ukrainian numbers are utter bunk, to put it politely.
It's very simple, Oryx is passing off destroyed Ukrainian equipment as Russian.
I do want to underscore the rage Ukrainians feel. This is not abetting with despair. People keep saying the West is willing to fight to the last Ukrainian. That's not quite accurate. Increasingly, I wonder what Putin's exit strategy is.
The exit strategy is equally simple, bomb them until they break.
 

james smith esq

Senior Member
Registered Member
You turned into a fallout shelter salesman?

Still calling the war for Ukraine, btw?
No, real-estate south of the Tropic Of Cancer!
I’m hopin’ to switch-out a property in southern France for one in Basse Terre, Guadeloupe.
Absolutely!
Slava Ukraine!
There’s no way they can lose!
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
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Russia has FindFace. So it is not like Ukraine would be the only ones with access to this kind of technology.
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If anything this "news" seems more like an ad for Clearview AI.

4. Russian losses. IF (and only if) Oryx is remotely accurate, Russia has lost about 14 BTGs + Tank battalions worth of tanks, IFVs and APCs. Others here have pointed out they think Oryx has over reported some kills (different angles of the same equipment), which I find plausible. However, we also know not all of the kills are reported, so I would call their numbers to be a minimum amount of equipment killed to be likewise plausible. For the Russians. Their Ukrainian numbers are utter bunk, to put it politely.
I would expect the Russians to have high numbers of vehicle losses given that they are the ones in the offensive. There seem to be a lot of losses with lightly armored vehicles like the Tigr. There are also some tank losses. Frankly given the amount of anti-armor missiles NATO poured into Ukraine I expected to see more vehicle losses than I have seen thus far. A single Javelin missile (excluding launcher) costs about as much as three Tigr vehicles. Even two NLAW missiles would cost more than a Tigr. I saw a video of a Russian tank in Mariupol getting hit around half a dozen times with missiles before it was knocked out. Had those been Javelins those missiles would cost more than the tank they hit. Russia's economy is of course much smaller than that of NATO. But even they will run into limits after a point. And next generation tanks like the T-14 Armata will have hard-kill APS.

5. I've been hearing about the kessel in the east since the war started. The Russians were imminently going to surround the eastern Ukrainian army. Its the logical thing to do, imo, from my not quite armchair. Yet, it has not happened.
The Russians basically pinned their army down and have broken them into 2-3 pockets. Most of this seems to be done with Donbass militia not the regular Russian army. Probably so Donbass will have a more valid claim to the captured territory after the conflict is over. Given the Militia's level of equipment I think they are doing quite well to be honest. The offensive in the Northeast is where I think the Russian army failed the most initially but even there they seem to be pushing forward in recent days.

6. However, there does seem to be progress by the LNR & DNR. Rubizhne appears to have been taken. However, Donetsk is still being hit by rocket/missile fire. So their advances can't be that far.
The Donetsk Militias seem to be cutting the Ukrainian Army main formation into pockets and penetrating relatively deeply in some thrusts. But no they did not start mopping them up. I doubt this will be possible without Russian Army artillery strikes.

8. The Ukrainians claim to have conducted counterattacks. Localized ones outside of Kiev seem to be most of them. One across the Dnieper driving towards Kherson supposedly as well.
Yes there were counteroffensives by Ukrainian army but at least the ones in the north seem to have been a failure. It remains to be seen what will happen to the one towards Kherson. To be honest I think this will make Russia's task of destroying their forces easier once they are in the open. The Russians had been making probing attacks towards Mykolaiv for like 3 days already without entering it proper.

10. The Pentagon claims the Tennessean National Guard members reported killed in the Donbass is fake and they are alive in the US. Propaganda and lies.
AFAIK this was memorabilia those people gave to Azov. They aren't with Azov anymore. At least I don't think so.

11. It occurs to me the reason the Russians keep moving amphibious ships near Odesa isn't do conduct a landing at all, but rather to tie up forces to counter a potential landing. The USMC did the same in the Gulf War off Kuwait as a distraction for the Iraqi military.
Some of those marines landed Southwest of Mariupol. They might eventually make landfall near Odessa. But not in the present situation. It makes no sense.

Increasingly, I wonder what Putin's exit strategy is.
The initially stated goals for this "operation" are flexible enough to allow more than one way out.

Three weeks in and Ukraine has not fallen. Kiev, Kharkov, Sumy, Odesa, and even Mauripol still stands. For now. That last I expect to fall relatively soon.
The US had over twice the troops in Iraq 2003. And Iraq has like half the population of Ukraine. Iraq also had no external support.
I expect the Ukrainians to come to some compromise after the troops in the East fall.
If they do not, then Russia might just jack this up, they might start carpet bombing, they might send more troops in, or both.
 
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Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Congratulations Russia in achieving 1500 photographically confirmed combat losses!


And if anyone is going to claim that Oryx counts the same losses twice or more, please provide examples. Should be easy, as the vast majority of losses on the site are categorised by type and number.

BTW he claims to have a huge backlog of images to post.

Also: Pentagon briefing:

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That does not look like strict documentation to me. Many of the vehicles don't even have V and Z on them.

You call blurry pictures from Tik Tok, documentation?

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KYli

Brigadier
5. I've been hearing about the kessel in the east since the war started. The Russians were imminently going to surround the eastern Ukrainian army. Its the logical thing to do, imo, from my not quite armchair. Yet, it has not happened.
Russia took Izyum today. Russia would be able to threaten both Khavkiv in the north and Severodonetsk in the south.
6. However, there does seem to be progress by the LNR & DNR. Rubizhne appears to have been taken. However, Donetsk is still being hit by rocket/missile fire. So their advances can't be that far.
Severodonetsk would be surrounded soon. Someone mentioned Ukrainian troops are retreating towards Karmatorsk. Anyway, the entire Luhansk Oblast is in danger of falling. Mariupol is completely surrounded and would fall within a few days. Given there are 14,000 Ukrainian troops that were trapped in Mariupol. Ukraine would be deal with a fatal bowl. Basically, Ukrainian east front in Donbas would be gone in a week or two.
7. I am hearing rumors of the Russian army attempting to run up the Left Bank of the Dnieper and meet up with forces coming south. That could be the kessel closing or it could be bunk, too.
I don't see Russians doing more advancing until they took Maiupol. It is clear that Russians are having logistics and man powers problem at the moment.
Three weeks in and Ukraine has not fallen. Kiev, Kharkov, Sumy, Odesa, and even Mauripol still stands. For now. That last I expect to fall relatively soon.
Sumy and Chernikiv are completely surrounded. Urban warfare is a meat grinder for Russian troops. Russians have learned its lesson and changed its tactics by only conducting siege with bombardment. Kharkov is almost completely surrounded and it would meet the same fate like Sumy.
 
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