I have to say, folks, this thread is something else. I see a ton of chest thumping over nukes and what China will do, but very little on the front of what is happening on the ground. Clearly, not much is being reported or none that is worthy of comment.
Let me toss bits into this feeding frenzy pit.
1. I've wondered how Ukraine could remotely or even plausibly ID so many of the soldiers or officers they claim to have killed. Yes, many have dog tags, but...it all seemed a little odd. Either it was blatant propaganda (say it ain't so!) or something else was up. Still probably a lot of propaganda, but they might have a way to quickly ID the dead.
2. An interesting potential development for the IT world of Russia: a claim they will run out of data storage in about 2 months with the sanctions. This is coming via the Kommersant, so be a bit cautious. Do we have a data storage salesman from China to go with the drone salesman?
3. Kommersant is also reporting Gavrilov's resignation. Still Kommersant, so tread carefully.
4. Russian losses. IF (and only if) Oryx is remotely accurate, Russia has lost about 14 BTGs + Tank battalions worth of tanks, IFVs and APCs. Others here have pointed out they think Oryx has over reported some kills (different angles of the same equipment), which I find plausible. However, we also know not all of the kills are reported, so I would call their numbers to be a minimum amount of equipment killed to be likewise plausible. For the Russians. Their Ukrainian numbers are utter bunk, to put it politely.
5. I've been hearing about the kessel in the east since the war started. The Russians were imminently going to surround the eastern Ukrainian army. Its the logical thing to do, imo, from my not quite armchair. Yet, it has not happened.
6. However, there does seem to be progress by the LNR & DNR. Rubizhne appears to have been taken. However, Donetsk is still being hit by rocket/missile fire. So their advances can't be that far.
7. I am hearing rumors of the Russian army attempting to run up the Left Bank of the Dnieper and meet up with forces coming south. That could be the kessel closing or it could be bunk, too.
8. The Ukrainians claim to have conducted counterattacks. Localized ones outside of Kiev seem to be most of them. One across the Dnieper driving towards Kherson supposedly as well. There was supposedly a video posted by a Ukrainian MP driving through the route. If true, that could be mildly wild. I have sincere doubts. However, if the Ukrainians are doing this and it is a substantial effort - again, doubts, lots of doubts - and IF the Russians are stretched thin, this could be problematic if the Ukrainians can park themselves on the Russian supply lines or do a running raid through the Russian rear. I don't doubt the Russians would crush the incursion, but if the Ukrainians ran wild for a time...
9. I'm owning up to being very wrong on the Russian warship. Feel free to mock. I am hear to accept my shame.
10. The Pentagon claims the Tennessean National Guard members reported killed in the Donbass is fake and they are alive in the US. Propaganda and lies. Let's remember all sides have reason to sow false information in the war. Ghost of Kiev or dead TNG. Deep fakes of Zelenskyy or claims of mass arrests of Russian generals or FSB officers. Or...ahem...destroyed Russian warships. Let's be on our toes. Me included. Especially me.
11. It occurs to me the reason the Russians keep moving amphibious ships near Odesa isn't do conduct a landing at all, but rather to tie up forces to counter a potential landing. The USMC did the same in the Gulf War off Kuwait as a distraction for the Iraqi military.
I do want to underscore the rage Ukrainians feel. This is not abetting with despair. People keep saying the West is willing to fight to the last Ukrainian. That's not quite accurate. Increasingly, I wonder what Putin's exit strategy is. A puppet regime doesn't seem plausible at all to me. But, happily, I don't lead one of the most powerful nations on the world. He hopefully has thought that through. Because all I see are two of the most obstinately stubborn cultures in the world have gone to war with each other.
Three weeks in and Ukraine has not fallen. Kiev, Kharkov, Sumy, Odesa, and even Mauripol still stands. For now. That last I expect to fall relatively soon.
Time will tell. I hope all of you are also safe in your armchairs and continue pontificating in health.