Ukrainian War Developments

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taxiya

Brigadier
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China's FM speaker Zhao Lijian today, answering question from FP by saying "Have you ever been concerned of the lives of people in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Palestine and Serbia (1999)? If not, you are in no position to accuse China." Apparently FP "journalist" was trying to play the "moral" game.

你们当初也是同样如此关心伊拉克、叙利亚、阿富汗和巴勒斯坦人民,以及1999年的塞尔维亚人民吗?如果不是,恐怕你们现在没有什么资格来指责中国。

BTW, I love how China is speaking more and more "aggressive" than diplomatic. People playing dumb should get their face slapped.
 

pmc

Major
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But I thought the darn Russian Forces are losing? This doesn't make sense if one was led to believe the massive propaganda being spread by the collective west.

Ukraine is asking for Turkish security guarantees in addition to other. Russia may at some point oblige Turkey to bring largest Turkish forces to guard people in Western Ukraine. The point is to make Turkey leader of Europe to make sure bulk of its forces and people goes West. Russia did similar deceptions with Minsk and Astana agreements.
German/French/Ukranian got a false impression that by doing agreement in Minsk they will some how detach Belarus from Russia.
same thing happen in Astana. Erdogan thought meeting about Syria in Astana Kazakhistan will make him leader of Turks instead he lost support of Arabs and Kurds. now Turkey is over active in Ukraine.

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historic precedent.
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Lethe

Captain
The entire world lose.

Yes. I want to state clearly if only for my own conscience, because I have made a number of posts that could be misinterpreted as advocacy for one party or another. War is a terrible thing. This war is a catastrophe for Ukraine, disastrous for Russia, and most unwelcome for the rest of Europe. But it is not enough to simply condemn the moral horrors of war. Only by seeking to understand what is happening - - actors, motives, goals, historical and cultural background, etc. - - can we begin to formulate a useful response to bring an end to the suffering. Only by exercising "strategic empathy" can we identify the escalation dynamics that must be avoided.
 
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FriedButter

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Ukraine hints at when Putin and Zelensky could meet​

The two presidents would meet only when a “peace treaty” is signed, Volodymyr Zelensky’s aide has said

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky could meet Russian President Vladimir Putin “in the coming weeks,” Zelensky’s aide, Mikhail Podolyak, said on Thursday. The meeting, however, could happen only when a “peace treaty” between Kiev and Moscow is signed, he said.

“As soon as the work on the agreement is completed, we will start organizing the meeting. It will happen in the coming weeks. The location, however, does not matter to us. It can be anywhere, except for Russia,” Podolyak told Wirtualna Polska portal in an interview.

Looks like the possibility of a peace treaty may actually happen. IDK the original source but the Zelensky Aide said they would only meet when a peace treaty is signed and also said they could meet in the coming weeks. It sounds like to me that there is progress being made in the negotiations.

The other interesting the article mentions is that FinancialTimes 15-point draft plan article was denied by both Moscow and Kiev. Article says that Zelesky Aide said it simply reflects Russia demands. Which probably means it’s was the starting point for negotiations.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
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Russia's nuclear arsenal is not as credible as the US's nuclear arsenal. They have a lot of warheads but have limited ways of delivering them to their targets. China has the same issue, which is why the US establishment does not fear nuclear war with either country. They know that in the end, they will win.
Uh. No. Russia has modernized nearly all its nuclear arsenal. This includes missiles like the Topol-M and R-29RMU2. Let alone newer missile systems like the Yars or Bulava. Or air delivered weapons like the Kinzhal. You saw them use air launched stealth cruise missiles in the conflict in Ukraine i.e. the Kh-101. They also have what is essentially new weapon systems like the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle in service. With others like RS-28 Sarmat and Poseidon due to enter service in the next 2-3 years. Heck this very year they basically finished tests of the Zircon which is an hypersonic cruise missile which can optionally use a nuclear warhead.

The US is still trying to get their equivalent of Kinzhal to work (and failing).
 

james smith esq

Senior Member
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Yes it's great for the sort of smaller scale actions in Donbass from 2014-2022 - the sort of action that is short in distance and duration, but not for full scale war. In a full scale war if you use them for deep battle they are liable to outrun their support units.

Also as the ex-PLA commander points out, there are bonafide battle tested BTG, and then there are adhoc put together along similar lines "imitation BTGs", the two are not comparable.
I find it quite perplexing that, while Russia first adopted, then rejected, the Brigade as the primary infantry formation (as the majority of the larger militaries have), that they would, then, go one step further in formation minimization, and move down to the battalion, and a small battalion, at that!

I’m all for downsizing with the intention of punching above your weight. But two of the things this requires are
1) a complete re-think of the dependence of frontline action units upon higher echelons for fire-support AND logistic support, and
2) a re-emphasis on the dismounted-infantry platoon as the basis of offensive fire.

As for this operation, Russia should have gone with BOGs, Brigade Operational Groups!
 

Weaasel

Senior Member
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But I thought the darn Russian Forces are losing? This doesn't make sense if one was led to believe the massive propaganda being spread by the collective west.
The Pentagon has been fairly circumspect and quite realist with regards to its comments and analysis of the war. It has left the cheerleading to the White House, the State Department, a number of other agencies, and also the Fourth Estate...
 

Tam

Brigadier
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Not sure if this got posted yet but the ship that was claimed to be sunked by unguided rocket is still sailing.

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First you got this story about the Moskva shelling and killing the defenders of this island who told them to F off.

Then it turns out the defenders were somehow alive and surrendered.

Then it turns out it wasn't the Moskva who shelled the island but the Vasily Blykov.

Then the Vasily Blykov was claimed to be sunk by MLRS.

Then it turns out the Vasily Blykov is completely unscathed.

Why would you believe anything that is said in this war?
 

james smith esq

Senior Member
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China's FM speaker Zhao Lijian today, answering question from FP by saying "Have you ever been concerned of the lives of people in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Palestine and Serbia (1999)? If not, you are in no position to accuse China." Apparently FP "journalist" was trying to play the "moral" game.

你们当初也是同样如此关心伊拉克、叙利亚、阿富汗和巴勒斯坦人民,以及1999年的塞尔维亚人民吗?如果不是,恐怕你们现在没有什么资格来指责中国。

BTW, I love how China is speaking more and more "aggressive" than diplomatic. People playing dumb should get their face slapped.
The first thing American apologists always fall back to is “moral-equivalence”, claiming that their war-crimes are more justifiable than others’!
 

PhSt

Junior Member
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China will likely be lukewarm and tepid support to Russia from now on. Anti-NATO/US in the conventional military sphere is all cool, but once you start talking about nuclear WW3, that's when China is going to peace out. If Putin crosses that line, it's all by itself. Not even China can save you.
But will China be able to save itself once NATO is finished with destroying Russia? I'm sure China has a better chance of winning its struggle against NATO with Russia still around, trying to appease the west wouldn't change their intentions to destroy China.
 
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