Ukrainian War Developments

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sferrin

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Really depends how far U.S./NATO wants to escalate.

People said the same thing just a few months ago that Russia's build up was just a scare tactic and there won't be a war in Ukraine, and here we are.

If the U.S./NATO continues to supply weaponry to Ukraine, especially going beyond small arms to fighter jets, S-300s, and Russia is taking very significant losses a few months down the road to a point where its no longer able to defeat Ukraine, IMO Russia will (and should) retaliate with tactical nukes.

IMO the current Russian leadership has the balls to use nukes and Putin's threats aren't empty. Its going to get real interesting if Russia retaliates with a tactical nuke because what is the U.S./NATO going to do then? They have no more sanctions to use. Are they going to nuke Russia back to escalate further? Is the U.S. and EU willing to trade cities with Russia?

If Putin nukes anybody for anything short of a major attack on Russia itself he's a f--king idiot. Why? Because at that point he's basically committing suicide.
 

muddie

Junior Member
If Putin nukes anybody for anything short of a major attack on Russia itself he's a f--king idiot. Why? Because at that point he's basically committing suicide.

If Putin is defeated in Ukraine or is forced to pull back because of U.S./NATO intervention, then he is finished anyways. Again, it depends on the extent of U.S./NATO intervention, how far they want to escalate.
 

Jingle Bells

Junior Member
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If Putin nukes anybody for anything short of a major attack on Russia itself he's a f--king idiot. Why? Because at that point he's basically committing suicide.
Dude, that makes no sense!
Does "NATO forces going into Ukraine" constitute "a major attack on Russia itself"? I don't think so, I don't recognize Ukraine as a part of Russia. Never will.

NATO forces going into Ukraine to confront Russian forces is certainly something "short of a major attack on Russia itself". Therefore what you are suggesting is that Biden and NATO is WRONG about how NATO forces going directly to Ukraine (for either confronting Russian forces, or to set up No-Fly-Zone) will trigger WW3.

If you are so confident about yourself being right, as opposed to Biden and major Western leaders being wrong. Should you really direct your anger at Putin and Russia? Shouldn't you direct you anger at the US and NATO for over-hyping the resolve, craziness and determination of Putin? Because according to you, Putin will be "a f--king idiot" for using nukes, when NATO forces is ONLY going into Ukraine and not directly attacking Russia??

You should be more careful with your statements and remarks. It might be fun and cool to be a kamikaze shit-posting troll, but in here, most of what you're earning is derision and laughter. Unless you want to be a comedian, don't do this here.
 

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
So in short a Russian BTG cannot sustain its momentum due to a lack of manpower and its insufficient logistical capabilities?
Yes it's great for the sort of smaller scale actions in Donbass from 2014-2022 - the sort of action that is short in distance and duration, but not for full scale war. In a full scale war if you use them for deep battle they are liable to outrun their support units.

Also as the ex-PLA commander points out, there are bonafide battle tested BTG, and then there are adhoc put together along similar lines "imitation BTGs", the two are not comparable.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
I think it is entirely plausible that Moscow will at least consider revising the dispensation of the Baltic states. Not only would doing so serve more or less the same purpose as the invasion of Ukraine, but if successful it would break the back of NATO by revealing it as a paper tiger. However, under these circumstances, I believe that Washington would use tactical nuclear weapons. This is why the west cannot allow Russia to succeed in consolidating control of Ukraine in the first place.
I doubt the US would use tactical nukes in the case of an invasion of the Baltics. They would definitively use them if Russia pushed into, say, Poland though. Russia would never use tactical nukes close to the Russian heartland. Not unless there were massive enemy ground formations there and they had already lost a conventional war and the enemy was inside Russia at that point. The Russians would not use them in Ukraine or the Baltics or Finland either. The Russians would use tactical nukes in Central Europe if they need to though.

There are now multiple generations of western leaders who have no experience in dealing with complex strategic realities in which interests must be clearly assessed in light of power considerations. These leaders live in a world of rhetorical moralism and foreign policy decisions undertaken without regard for their consequences -- because there usually aren't any.
Right. A lot of people in the US seem to think this is Iraq 2.0. When Iraq was barely able to manufacture even the simplest military equipment and had no strategic weapons at all.

I doubt America would use tactical nukes in a conflict though. It's never been part of NATO doctrine and they don't have many of them (if any at all). A war with tactical nukes would heavily favour Russia. The Soviets obsessed over them and Russia has thousands of them.
Why do you think the Obama government worked on the B-61 upgrade program? Officially it was to hit bunkers in Iran and North Korea. But weapons like those always had multiple possible uses.
 

sferrin

Junior Member
Registered Member
If Putin is defeated in Ukraine or is forced to pull back because of U.S./NATO intervention, then he is finished anyways. Again, it depends on the extent of U.S./NATO intervention, how far they want to escalate.
But his country would be just fine. Are you really suggesting Putin is such an egomaniac that if he got his hand slapped he'd kill all of his people in a nuclear war?
 
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