Ukrainian War Developments

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Anlsvrthng

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windsclouds2030 said:
Russian paratroopers fighting Ukrainian nationalists, captured anti-tank systems, hand grenade launchers, portable anti-aircraft missile systems of Western production.

Russian airborne troops units captured the stronghold of nationalists and foreign mercenaries near Guta-Mezhigorskaya in Kiev region.

Russian paratroopers seized American-made Javelin anti-tank missile systems and a number of other types of weapons supplied by Western countries to Ukraine.

Every system captured is being handed over to the units of the people's militia of the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics.
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They should give it to the Syrians .

They could have more use of them.
 
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Anlsvrthng

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Interesting sidenote, how big market share the Russian/Chinese aviation industry get in the coming decades?

Every country appart from the direct USA colonies will have to consider the risks associated with the Boeing and Airbus.

Most likelly the Chinese companies will stop to purchase/lease any foreign planes in few years time, dumping back to the market all foreign planes appart from the Chines and maybe Russian ones.
 
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pmc

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yongpengsuen said:
If I were Putin I put forth 1 condition for ending the war. Disband NATO or the war continues.
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There is better condition. Accept Turkey in European Union with Euro replacing Turkish currency along with Germany accepting all the debts of Turkey. Turks have done more for Germany than any other country of Europe. 5 million and counting inside Germany.
so many European leaders have recently visited Turkey. i feel Anatoliya is replacing Strasbourg and Brussels.
 
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Rettam Stacf

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Lethe said:
Realism. Good. However, the problem is that Ukraine's ambition to join NATO has been enshrined in Ukraine's constitution since 2019. It is this that will need to be altered and replaced with a commitment to strategic neutrality. Indeed, these very statements from Zelensky probably open him to charges that he is acting unconstitutionally.

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Basically, Russia needs Ukraine to go through the process of amending its constitution, which obviously requires a high level of coordination amongst elements of the Ukrainian political system and is open to dissent/disruption. Even with the best will in the world, Zelensky cannot just wave his hand on these matters.
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Agree.

But this is the 3rd or 4th time Zelensky made such statement since the beginning of the conflict. If he said so prior to the war, all these mess might (with a big question mark) have been avoided. Now that Russia has put in all these efforts and subjected to severe sanction, she will expect significantly greater concession to compensate for her loss.

So just amending the Ukrainian constitution and promise not to join NATO may be sufficient for a ceasefire agreement only. Russian troops will stay in place while no further troop movement on both sides will be allowed. Then they can negotiate a comprehensive peace and non-aggression treaty before Russia will pull back her troops.
 
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Jingle Bells

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Phead128

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Richard Santos said:
the ukrainian war actually makes it much more essential for russia to secure a positive physical arrangement to keep Ukraine out of NATO, instead of relying o any mere agreement or constitution change to the same effect. This is because, let’s be honest, any merely agreement or constitutional change after this war will be perceived by generations of Ukrainians as invalid because it was entered into under duress, and therefore are mere shackles to be thrown off at the first opportunity.

So ukraine, by resisting so hard, probably lost its chance to settle this with a mere agreement.
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NATO is only a partial explanation of Putin's ambitions, because NATO troops already stationed directly on Russia border with Estonia (Saint Petersburg region) and Lithuania/Poland (Kaliningrad oblast), and Russia didn't threaten invasion of Baltics in 2003. The NATO troops in Estonia is almost equi-distant to Moscow compared to NATO troops in Ukraine, so in terms of missile timing, troop proximity, it should theoretically trigger the same response if NATO troops was sole issue.

The bigger picture is how Putin views historical relationship with Ukraine, there was 50% of Putin speech on the "muh Blood brothers" relationship and glory times of Empire. There is a strong chance Putin can go for Regime Change, installing it's own Russian-loyalist puppet gov't (a la Afghan gov't) in order to permanent ensure Ukrainians will not cross Russia again. It's too risky to keep Zelenskyy alive, because Putin will not live forever, and Ukrainians will hate Russia for generations, so Regime Change fits very well into Putin's "Muh Blood Brother" rhetorics and restoring Russian glory rhetoric. Ukraine will be a buffer zone or a Russian-loyal puppet buffer state.
 
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Richard Santos

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dengyeye said:
NATO going away is too optimistic, but Zelensky is royally fucked in this situation. He cannot win, he cannot surrender after saying what he's said. He'll continue sacrificing Ukrainian lives and infrastructure in a futile effort to stave off defeat.

I'd almost feel sorry for him, if not for the fact that he's an utterly disgusting human being in every sense of the word.
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Zelensky didn’t rock NATO’s foundation, The US using NATO to serve its own hegemonic interesting while leaving the rest of the NATO the primary recipient of potentially heightened nuclear threat from Russia is and will continue to rock NATO foundation.

A unspoken consideration for why Germany suddenly went all militaristic is undoubtedly not just the notional threat from a militarily aggressive russia, which honestly has not increased, but a fundamental realization that the security interests of eastern and western europe are not the same and Germany snd France may need to not rely on any NATO driven by the interests of the US and sensibilities of eastern european members.
 
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