Ukrainian War Developments

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Michaelsinodef

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foxmulder said:
This is tragicomic to watch for me. If it goes like this Ukraine will end. Funny thing is they tricked themselves to it. They become a pawn and keep provoking their nuclear military super power neighbor to attack them. It is crazy. I cannot believe majority of the Ukraine is supporting this. I bet if there was an election now Zelensky would get 35% instead 70% he got.

World lost its mind. EU supporting these sanctions (to this extend) and sending weapons (Germany is spending 100billion euro to weapons!!@!@!!) is crazy too. What benefit they are getting? Higher prices of everything, less secure Europe, immigrants.. well, this time they are blond maybe that was attractive. I have no idea what EU was thinking.

What is US getting..?.. double the energy prices, almost certain double digit inflation? The cancel culture reached a new peak.. Now international relations are done based on cancel culture.. herd mentality. CRAZY.

what is Russia getting, 25% decrease in economy for years to come? Thousands of dead soldiers. Long term east Ukraine?

Seriously who benefits from this war? NO ONE!
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Zelensky made quite a lot of promises (and most likely also had media to back him up) so he got a high % in votes (does anyone know how many votes out of all the people who can vote the total vote is?)
 
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pmc

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Russia gains can be quantified. complete control over coastal Black sea. Alot more land for Grain production. Control over Nuclear plants to generate free electricity that will spare oil for exports. (Soviet Union built way more power stations in Ukraine than other states).
There is steel and coal to BRI.
It will create new balance in relations with Turkey and rest of Middleast with dominance in Grains. I think Russia is creating conditions for Turkey to join Shanghai cooperation. as the rest of Turkic states are in that organization. Turkey will be unable to function without part of this trading bloc. infact more German cars will be produced in Asia than Germany. where they will have to pay higher toll tax to transit Suez canal if Europe need cars.
 
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Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
foxmulder said:
This is tragicomic to watch for me. If it goes like this Ukraine will end. Funny thing is they tricked themselves to it. They become a pawn and keep provoking their nuclear military super power neighbor to attack them. It is crazy. I cannot believe majority of the Ukraine is supporting this. I bet if there was an election now Zelensky would get 35% instead 70% he got.

World lost its mind. EU supporting these sanctions (to this extend) and sending weapons (Germany is spending 100billion euro to weapons!!@!@!!) is crazy too. What benefit they are getting? Higher prices of everything, less secure Europe, immigrants.. well, this time they are blond maybe that was attractive. I have no idea what EU was thinking.

What is US getting..?.. double the energy prices, almost certain double digit inflation? The cancel culture reached a new peak.. Now international relations are done based on cancel culture.. herd mentality. CRAZY.

what is Russia getting, 25% decrease in economy for years to come? Thousands of dead soldiers. Long term east Ukraine?

Seriously who benefits from this war? NO ONE!
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USA benefit a lot from it.

Devastate the EU economy means lot of good loans with high interest to finance rebuilding with Chinese/japanese and Korean goods.

Freeeeeeemoney.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
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Corona said:
Can some one spare a moment and explain :
Chechens & Russians were at each other throats in Chechen War's, how come they are best bud's now ?
What's in it for Chechens to enthusiastically participate in this war ?
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They came to a mutual understanding. Russia stops the carpet bombing and allows de facto autonomy in exchange for them remaining part of the federation and stomping down the extremists. And by de facto autonomy I mean they have shariah and there's a hard border between them and the rest of Russia.
 
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Jingle Bells

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Lethe said:
The more I think about the prospects for conflict resolution, the bleaker it looks.

At first glance there is reason to be optimistic. Russia now has a clearer sense of the costs of pursuing their strategic aims, in both military, economic, strategic and political terms, while Ukraine now knows how serious Russia is about enforcing its "red lines", and the limits of western support that it can expect.

On closer examination, however, it is the raft of western sanctions that have been applied, and the rhetoric behind them, that threatens the prospects for peace. These sanctions do not apparently serve a coercive purpose, but rather a punitive one. That is to say, the sanctions are not intended to encourage Russia to change its behaviour, but are rather intended to punish Russia for actions already taken, and weaken it going forward. The distinction is important. Even if certain key figures such as Biden were minded to offer Russia an "off-ramp" (i.e. do X and Y sanction will be removed), the number of actors/institutions and sanctions/mechanisms involved, many of which are now subject to the vagaries of domestic opinion, severely undermine the credibility of any such proposal. Would Putin (or his successor) really believe that, for example, by withdrawing from Ukraine the EU will abandon its strategic drive for freedom from Russian coal/oil/gas/etc.?

The consequence is that Russia will likely treat the sanctions that have been imposed, and the new strategic/geopolitical reality they promise to create, as a cost already incurred, with the prospect of any revision playing little role in the Russian strategic calculus. Accordingly, Russia will see little reason to deviate from its goals in Ukraine, and indeed is likely to seek a more complete Ukrainian capitulation than would've been accepted before the war began. "This has already cost us so much, we must ensure it was worth it." While it is tempting to imagine that higher than expected combat losses and greater than expected Ukrainian resistance may encourage a softening of Russia's position, it must be remembered that Russia can escalate so much further. Russia can move to a true war economy and put millions of men under arms, they can bring nuclear weapons to bear. With a vital strategic interest at stake, and plausibly the very survival of the present regime, and no more bridges left to burn, it is likely that Putin will double, triple, quadruple down on this invasion and seek the total capitulation of Ukraine.

The final point to note is that many in western decision-making circles know all of this. They know that the present path, whereby Russia is having great difficulty achieving its objectives but no plausible alternative, will see Ukraine reduced increasingly to ashes, with a horrific toll in human lives and culture, and they do. not. care. I'm not sure where the phrase first came from: that NATO is willing to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian, but it captures an ugly truth. Russia will likely emerge from all this a shadow of its former self, and that is precisely what many decision-makers in the west intend. Ukraine may not emerge at all, and nobody is very concerned about that.
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I totally disagree with you.
In my opinion, things would have been worse for Russia in the long run, if they ended the war too soon.
People like you are so used to globalized liberal market economy that you think it is the only way to organize a country's economy. You think GDP means everything. I, frankly, don't think so.

Because structurally speaking, Russia do NOT have any overall shortages in its own economy: it has way more land per capital than world nations average, it has no shortage of water, no shortage of food, no shortage of infrastructure, no shortage of technology. In fact, it is globalism and Russia's relatively open market to the world, as well as Russia lack of governmental strategic planning and subsidizing of industries that has been breaking down and eroding the once humongous and robust Soviet industries, letting it fall victim from unfair competition from the the globalized West and econ partners of the West (China). Because we in the West believe in globalized liberal market economy as a religion, we simply take the whole "slow dying of the Soviet-era Industry" as something Darwinian and natural, and even righteous.

But I don't believe that is the case. Russia is NOT like China, where shortage of food and energy and water and land will restrain China ability to act more independently from global dynamics. Russia can really afford to be closed off to the West, and the huge need for Russia energy and potentially military and other high tech, from India and China, will put it in a pretty good place in the long run.

In fact, the longer this war drags out, the worse the Russia economy will look like from the outside, but it will also force Russia to re-form its economic structure. And the West will find another "Soviet-Like" planned-economy rising in Russia. The West can laugh at this now. But if people believe the US can be an isolationist/anti-globalism great power, so can Russia.

If this war is short, the Russian will still entertain the fantasy of going back the way things were before, instead of take the chance to do things their own way. Historically speaking, that's how sanctions works: it is only to shock and awe and scare the other side to capitulate, if they don't, it would be utter failure.
 
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