Ukrainian War Developments

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Weaasel

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Using threats against Beijing will not work. Beijing is actually determined to see a change in the balance of power and a decisive establishment of multipolarity in the world. The United States already ensures that restrictions take place globally with regards to China having the most sophisticated IC chips and IC chip manufacturing equipment, and tried to destroy China's flagship technology company, Huawei. Given that the American and larger Western economy is also badly affected by the war in Ukraine, the Americans do not have much leverage here going into threats.

What should be discussed are ways in which peace can be brought about in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. A compromise should be the neutrality of Ukraine and also abiding by the Minsk Agreement. But the way the Americans are going about things, they do not want any compromise to be reached...
 

Lethe

Captain
That twitter post is 99.99% fake and fabrication. It is another information warfare by the west in the very same manner of China's "genocide". It does not worth any logical debate.

See #12,034 for why I just call it a fake.

You are probably right. Nonetheless I do think the point is worth making: the outcome that China most wishes to avoid here is the collapse of the present Russian regime. Out of the chaos of regime change, China could potentially lose a formidable and useful ally and, in the worst-case scenario, find itself facing a formidable and troublesome foe.

This goes to the discussion about potential Chinese assistance to Russia. Ukraine is unimportant. A Russian victory, Russian defeat, grinding insurgency, stalemate, all of these things are more or less European problems. The threat is not military and does not call for a military response, or military aid. Russia's strategic goals in Ukraine are ultimately Russia's, not China's, and must be correlated with Russian resources and commitments (the failure of the government in Kyiv to similarly shape its policies according to the real-world distributions of power is precisely what has led them to the present catastrophe!). The risks to the present regime in Russia are the political implications of crippling western sanctions (in the months and years ahead) coupled with the political implications of military losses and failures. By refusing to engage with the western sanctions regime, China will be providing a far more useful service to Russia than any conceivable military aid, while minimising the blowback in terms of relations with European nations, not least of all because there are a
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of states that are opting not to engage in economic warfare against Russia, most significantly including Anglo-darling India.
 

windsclouds2030

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NATO JOINT TRAINING CENTER IN UKRAINE 2022.03.13

The Russian missile attacks on the NATO-US-Ukraine joint training center at YAVORIV, near Lviv around 25 km from borders with Poland, also known as the International Center for Peacekeeping and Security. It has been possibly used as a NATO Supply Transfer Station for Ukrainian Forces in the East.

Russia strikes Ukraine army base near NATO member Poland, the westernmost attack since Feb. 24



Thread by Elijah J. Magnier on NATO-US-Ukraine joint training center at Yavoriv

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IMPORTANT:
It looks like a #US mercenary SOF #Aghanistan veteran in #Ukraine, near #Kyiv, is revealing the real situation on the ground, without mainstream media misinformation make-up, how his companions have been killed and the low morale of the group. Read
American Special Operations Forces in Ukraine.jpg


From an American volunteer on the front lines outside of Kyiv:

"Sitting close to the frontline, the last safe mode of transportation leaves for greener pastures. A core group of about 30 foreign fighters remains out of around 200 people who were here just minutes ago..."
1/

"The base we came from was struck by rockets in the early morning hours. People we lived with for a couple days are confirmed dead. It is only a matter of time before our location is targeted. We are about to be cut off by a Russian tank column any day now..." 2/
(...)
 

ThomX

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3 days of basic training, then pushed to the frontlines, but I'm sure they'll do fine, with the many hours of Call of Duty, Battlefield and Apex Legends under their belt, they've all the skills they need.

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Just over a week ago I met a group of young men who had volunteered at a centre in Kyiv to fight for Ukraine.
Most of them were in their late teens, not long out of school. They told me that after three days' basic training they would head for the front line - or very close to it.....

View attachment 85198
Reminds me of Hitler Youth.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
This goes to the discussion about potential Chinese assistance to Russia. Ukraine is unimportant. A Russian victory, Russian defeat, grinding insurgency, stalemate, all of these things are more or less European problems
Disagree. Russian history shows that the Russian people can stand a lot of hardships but they absolutely won't allow a shameful defeat.

Whoever Russian leader loses wars, is historically removed shortly after that defeat.

So, for China's national interests, Russia shouldn't be allowed to be defeated. Anyway, I dont think that Russia will lose in this war, but it is still important to understand how Russian people react to military defeats
 

Lethe

Captain
Disagree. Russian history shows that the Russian people can stand a lot of hardships but they absolutely won't allow a shameful defeat.

Whoever Russian leader loses wars, is historically removed shortly after that defeat.

So, for China's national interests, Russia shouldn't be allowed to be defeated. Anyway, I dont think that Russia will lose in this war, but it is still important to understand how Russian people react to military defeats

I agree that results on the battlefield can have domestic political implications. High losses and especially a humiliating defeat for Russia would indeed increase the prospect of regime change. But it is unlikely that Russia will suffer such a defeat. It is more likely that Russia would be forced to moderate its strategic objectives and to accept a less than ideal settlement. And from China's perspective, that would be fine. China should not be in the position of fueling Russian strategic ambitions, as western support for Ukraine did (with catastrophic results) and as western support for Taiwan does today. Russia needs to find its place in Europe and manage its relations according to its own resources. Direct external support for Russia (e.g. supplying vehicles, drones, shells, etc.) only fuels further instability and creates greater risks for the Russian regime, and therefore for China, while dramatically increasing the direct costs to China in the form of western economic reprisals.
 

ansy1968

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Russians must fear foreign volunteers when they are a topic on so much social media.

And as a Ukrainian: a foreign legionnaire should rather stay in my no longer habitable apartment until he starves to death than if I had to do it myself.
@Intrepid bro You're Ukrainian? that's why you're so knowledgeable on CV16 Liaoning, I thought you're Chinese...lol залишатися в безпеці :)
 

Overbom

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What a senseless foolish war. If Ukraine only had some sane leaders with a 50+ IQ all this mess would have been avoided.

Have they really not read a single history book to realise what is the expected behaviour of a country supposed to be, when your neighbour is a great power?

Ukraine should look at Vietnam and basically copy Vietnam's diplomatic conduct/behaviour/framework with China
 
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