if caught off guard, it is fairly common for an army to disintegrate within hours. we've seen this happen repeatedly during WWII, and in the six-days war. however, with sufficient warning, if the defenders were already deployed and dug in, then even against a much superior opponent it can still hold out for a long time.
Ukrainian War Developments
- Thread starter james smith esq
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I don't doubt that Russia could destroy concentrated Ukrainian troop positions in a short time
The problem would be dealing with dispersed small groups armed with javelins and manpads. These could be a big headache for Russia
However it all depends if Ukraine has the necessary operational doctrine to take full advantage of these weapons, well networked forces and agile-fast deployed troops
If Ukraine is just going to sit and concentrate its troops in key defensive locations then Russia will make quick work of them
solarz
Brigadier
I wager the game plan is to cover up an Ukrainian offense against rebel areas and then claim a Russian invasion when Russia responds militarily.
It's the same script as Georgia in 2008, and it'll likely lead to the same failure.
All of the events in Ukraine makes sense only with the context.
It is about transport and energy .
One side Europe now start to recognise the need of a long term , high level cooperation with Russia regards of Energy, isntead of telling to the Gazprom to bring its good to the spot market.
The age ended, due to the covid there wasn't enoguht investment into oil and gas , means now Russia happy to produce enought for its needs and for the long term contracts, and the whole EU can use the leftower. Means 7 times higher proices in the UK than in the USA.
And unhappy Ukraine, they saw the bill increase sixfold, at the same time its getting clear after 2024 there won't be any gas transit, means a loss of 3% GDP and 10% of goverment income, and may 10-15% if the export gone.
At the same time they has to spend 6 times more for gas.
At the same time the Russian economy and industry started to show qualitative and quantitive improvements.
The trans sybreian railway including BAM now around 160 million tons/year, the North Sea Route around 30 million, and with the new nuclear icebreakers it will reach at least 150 million tons /year, and the trans syberian railway will reach around 300 million tons/year.
Just for reference, the Suez canal has a 600 million, the Panama 500 million tons/year capacity.
MEans from the 10% of the capacity of Panama the east-west infrastructure reached the 38%, and by the end of this decade it will be on par with panama/Suez.
All of the controlled by russia.
At the moment with panama, gibraltar, Ciprus and Singapur gives full control for the USA/UK above the international transport, the NSR will void this advantage.
It is about transport and energy .
One side Europe now start to recognise the need of a long term , high level cooperation with Russia regards of Energy, isntead of telling to the Gazprom to bring its good to the spot market.
The age ended, due to the covid there wasn't enoguht investment into oil and gas , means now Russia happy to produce enought for its needs and for the long term contracts, and the whole EU can use the leftower. Means 7 times higher proices in the UK than in the USA.
And unhappy Ukraine, they saw the bill increase sixfold, at the same time its getting clear after 2024 there won't be any gas transit, means a loss of 3% GDP and 10% of goverment income, and may 10-15% if the export gone.
At the same time they has to spend 6 times more for gas.
At the same time the Russian economy and industry started to show qualitative and quantitive improvements.
The trans sybreian railway including BAM now around 160 million tons/year, the North Sea Route around 30 million, and with the new nuclear icebreakers it will reach at least 150 million tons /year, and the trans syberian railway will reach around 300 million tons/year.
Just for reference, the Suez canal has a 600 million, the Panama 500 million tons/year capacity.
MEans from the 10% of the capacity of Panama the east-west infrastructure reached the 38%, and by the end of this decade it will be on par with panama/Suez.
All of the controlled by russia.
At the moment with panama, gibraltar, Ciprus and Singapur gives full control for the USA/UK above the international transport, the NSR will void this advantage.
That Syria was training. At the peak there was round the clock monitoring to identify mobile groups. Testing reliability of systems in hot climate.
It's the same script. They don't change the disk.
The West is running an advertising campaign that I haven't seen for a long time around this supposed Russian “invasion” in eastern Ukraine. It appears that Russia simply decided to attack Ukraine in January or February 2022 with over 175,000 soldiers.
The US believes there is an increase in troops near the Ukrainian border, but no significant movement has been traced by open sources. Assertions about Russian troop concentrations are rather vague. In any case, when preparations for the invasion reach a certain stage, we will see large formations of troops moving close to the Ukrainian border. And we've seen this many times already (with much less media and diplomatic attention from the West). This time around, we see much quieter Russian moves that could be interpreted as preparations of some kind for action in Ukraine (but might not) and we see enormous attention to this from the Western press and political circles. It looks weird.
Meanwhile, behind the scenes, an anonymous State Department source reportedly said that Ukraine has been told that NATO membership is unlikely in the next decade. Biden after the conversation with Putin, declared that Ukraine must respect the Minsk accords, while Zelensky affirms that the Donbass situation will not freeze, this demonstrates that the Ukrainian president wants to drag NATO into a confrontation against the Russians, but the West is not falling into the conversation of Ukrainians. The Ukrainian army feels strong because it received the Javelins antitank missiles and Bayraktar drones, the morale of the Ukrainian troops is at the top due to the delivery of these systems, even as the US Secretary of Defense refuses to send more equipment to Ukraine, even with the Ukraine'
The West talks a lot about the concentration of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border, but it does not talk about the position of the Ukrainians. The Ukrainian army is close to the front line of the Donbass, with more than 100,000 soldiers, which would be equivalent to half the national army. Zelensky simply doesn't have the courage to move forward because he has yet to receive a green card from the West and a promise of military aid. Ukrainian border, and even the number of Russian troops near Ukraine is not at its highest level. 2021.
Zelensky simply wants to violate the Minsk agreement by invading Donbass ending the autonomy that was given in the protocol signed in 2014, the Russians reacted to this and now there is an intense and continuous tracking of Russian troops and nobody talks about the advance of Ukrainian troops.
Finally, in recent years, I have seen many published reports of Ukrainian artillery moving near rebel-held areas. A war continues to be waged with Russia, apparently continuing to provide enough support for the breakaway regions of Lughansk and Donetsk to keep them afloat.
Not to mention that December/January is generally not a good time to launch an invasion, as @Mohsin77 has stated. And it can be confirmed.
Zelensky is trying to recap Donbass, he is clearly violating the Minsk Protocol, an agreement that guaranteed the complete autonomy of Donetsk and Lugansk, the Ukrainians violated in 2014 and violated another from 2015 and are violating again. Currently, according to Russian media, the Ukrainian Army is on the front lines of Donbass with more than 100,000 soldiers, most of them entrenched as well as the rebels of Donetsk and Lugansk, looking like World War I.
Analyzing some photos:
It is located in Yelnya, in the Smolensk region, territory in front of Moscow and some distance from Belarus. This rotation is perfectly normal because of the exercises the Russians had in Central Asia and China.
Now, Pogonovo:
Source:
This is a photo that was posted from CSIS, the photo shows the same place in April 2021:
This photo proves that rotation at this training camp in Pogonovo is highest during the month of April, the best time for a Russian invasion of Ukraine, as per the attached image from commentator @Mohsin77 and the claims of 70,000 or 90,000 soldiers nearby the Ukrainian border is a lie.
Another Pogonovo photo from April 2021:
Source:
In the source's news, they state: “In March and April, during Russia's first buildup of 2021, the site hosted much of the equipment from the Central Military District that has now moved to Yelnya, according to Janes. Once that equipment was deployed, the site began hosting new material associated with elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army, normally based outside Moscow.”
It is very unlikely that if Russia were planning an invasion of Ukraine, they would deploy the equipment in Yelnya which is near Belarus, rather than Pogonovo which is near the Ukrainian border, the training center in Pogonovo not so close, something between 300 to 400 km away from Ukraine.
The rotation of troops in Yelnya is perfectly normal after the exercises the Russians had in Tajikistan, China, Kazakhstan and others. There were many exercises with the countries of Central Asia, the withdrawal of the USA is causing this concentration of forces in a way. In a way, countries demonstrate the interaction of their armies and their readiness to jointly repel hostile forces. The geography of such exercises in recent months has been extensive.
There was the Sino-Russian operational-strategic exercise, this emphasizes that it is related to combating common global threats and challenges, but the maneuvers will certainly take into account the Afghan factor, as well as the tasks of Moscow and Beijing, which are being resolved in the under the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Previously, these issues were discussed in Tajikistan by the commander of the Central Military District of the Russian Armed Forces, Alexander Lapin. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu went to Duxambé to inspect the military training of troops on the Tajik-Afghan border in early August.
In that same beginning of August, trainings took place in the region of Surkan Darya, in Uzbekistan, involving the Russians. From Russia, they will involve motorized rifle units as well as reconnaissance groups from the Central Military District's special-purpose brigade. It is worth noting that the training took place in the city of Termez, a city located on the border with Afghanistan and it is there that the combat coordination personnel of the military units that invaded Afghanistan were organized before being sent to the Afghan country.
In September, based at the local training center in Kyrgyzstan, the special exercises “Rubezh-2021” were carried out. The core of the Russian group will be units from the 55th Motorized Rifle Mountain Brigade, located in Kyzyl. They will work on actions to block and destroy the invading illegal formations.
The US believes there is an increase in troops near the Ukrainian border, but no significant movement has been traced by open sources. Assertions about Russian troop concentrations are rather vague. In any case, when preparations for the invasion reach a certain stage, we will see large formations of troops moving close to the Ukrainian border. And we've seen this many times already (with much less media and diplomatic attention from the West). This time around, we see much quieter Russian moves that could be interpreted as preparations of some kind for action in Ukraine (but might not) and we see enormous attention to this from the Western press and political circles. It looks weird.
Meanwhile, behind the scenes, an anonymous State Department source reportedly said that Ukraine has been told that NATO membership is unlikely in the next decade. Biden after the conversation with Putin, declared that Ukraine must respect the Minsk accords, while Zelensky affirms that the Donbass situation will not freeze, this demonstrates that the Ukrainian president wants to drag NATO into a confrontation against the Russians, but the West is not falling into the conversation of Ukrainians. The Ukrainian army feels strong because it received the Javelins antitank missiles and Bayraktar drones, the morale of the Ukrainian troops is at the top due to the delivery of these systems, even as the US Secretary of Defense refuses to send more equipment to Ukraine, even with the Ukraine'
The West talks a lot about the concentration of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border, but it does not talk about the position of the Ukrainians. The Ukrainian army is close to the front line of the Donbass, with more than 100,000 soldiers, which would be equivalent to half the national army. Zelensky simply doesn't have the courage to move forward because he has yet to receive a green card from the West and a promise of military aid. Ukrainian border, and even the number of Russian troops near Ukraine is not at its highest level. 2021.
Zelensky simply wants to violate the Minsk agreement by invading Donbass ending the autonomy that was given in the protocol signed in 2014, the Russians reacted to this and now there is an intense and continuous tracking of Russian troops and nobody talks about the advance of Ukrainian troops.
Finally, in recent years, I have seen many published reports of Ukrainian artillery moving near rebel-held areas. A war continues to be waged with Russia, apparently continuing to provide enough support for the breakaway regions of Lughansk and Donetsk to keep them afloat.
Not to mention that December/January is generally not a good time to launch an invasion, as @Mohsin77 has stated. And it can be confirmed.
Zelensky is trying to recap Donbass, he is clearly violating the Minsk Protocol, an agreement that guaranteed the complete autonomy of Donetsk and Lugansk, the Ukrainians violated in 2014 and violated another from 2015 and are violating again. Currently, according to Russian media, the Ukrainian Army is on the front lines of Donbass with more than 100,000 soldiers, most of them entrenched as well as the rebels of Donetsk and Lugansk, looking like World War I.
Analyzing some photos:
It is located in Yelnya, in the Smolensk region, territory in front of Moscow and some distance from Belarus. This rotation is perfectly normal because of the exercises the Russians had in Central Asia and China.
Now, Pogonovo:
Source:
This is a photo that was posted from CSIS, the photo shows the same place in April 2021:
This photo proves that rotation at this training camp in Pogonovo is highest during the month of April, the best time for a Russian invasion of Ukraine, as per the attached image from commentator @Mohsin77 and the claims of 70,000 or 90,000 soldiers nearby the Ukrainian border is a lie.
Another Pogonovo photo from April 2021:
Source:
In the source's news, they state: “In March and April, during Russia's first buildup of 2021, the site hosted much of the equipment from the Central Military District that has now moved to Yelnya, according to Janes. Once that equipment was deployed, the site began hosting new material associated with elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army, normally based outside Moscow.”
It is very unlikely that if Russia were planning an invasion of Ukraine, they would deploy the equipment in Yelnya which is near Belarus, rather than Pogonovo which is near the Ukrainian border, the training center in Pogonovo not so close, something between 300 to 400 km away from Ukraine.
The rotation of troops in Yelnya is perfectly normal after the exercises the Russians had in Tajikistan, China, Kazakhstan and others. There were many exercises with the countries of Central Asia, the withdrawal of the USA is causing this concentration of forces in a way. In a way, countries demonstrate the interaction of their armies and their readiness to jointly repel hostile forces. The geography of such exercises in recent months has been extensive.
There was the Sino-Russian operational-strategic exercise, this emphasizes that it is related to combating common global threats and challenges, but the maneuvers will certainly take into account the Afghan factor, as well as the tasks of Moscow and Beijing, which are being resolved in the under the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Previously, these issues were discussed in Tajikistan by the commander of the Central Military District of the Russian Armed Forces, Alexander Lapin. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu went to Duxambé to inspect the military training of troops on the Tajik-Afghan border in early August.
In that same beginning of August, trainings took place in the region of Surkan Darya, in Uzbekistan, involving the Russians. From Russia, they will involve motorized rifle units as well as reconnaissance groups from the Central Military District's special-purpose brigade. It is worth noting that the training took place in the city of Termez, a city located on the border with Afghanistan and it is there that the combat coordination personnel of the military units that invaded Afghanistan were organized before being sent to the Afghan country.
In September, based at the local training center in Kyrgyzstan, the special exercises “Rubezh-2021” were carried out. The core of the Russian group will be units from the 55th Motorized Rifle Mountain Brigade, located in Kyzyl. They will work on actions to block and destroy the invading illegal formations.
That is what a bunch of obedient (idiotic) US vassal states in Europe get you: instability, a serious threat to peace and further Neocon/Neolib US aggression in Europe and around the world (including Asia) !
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