Ukraine Revolt/Civil War News, Reports, Data, etc.

My understanding of the situation is that the UAF encircled within this new 'cauldron' were given the option to disarm and retreat West from the separatist controlled area, but they continue to fight.

The status of those encircled UAF was actually discussed while the treaty negotiations were under way and I recall the separatists noting that the treaty would not cover 'hostile' UAF within separatist controlled areas (specifically referring to this current 'cauldron').

The simplest solution to preserve the cease-fire agreement and begin pull back of artillery would be an OSCE supervised pullout of those encircled UAF. Although Kiev would need to agree to issue a stand down order.

Zool said:

My understanding of the situation is that the UAF encircled within this new 'cauldron' were given the option to disarm and retreat West from the separatist controlled area, but they continue to fight.

The status of those encircled UAF was actually discussed while the treaty negotiations were under way and I recall the separatists noting that the treaty would not cover 'hostile' UAF within separatist controlled areas (specifically referring to this current 'cauldron').

The simplest solution to preserve the cease-fire agreement and begin pull back of artillery would be an OSCE supervised pullout of those encircled UAF. Although Kiev would need to agree to issue a stand down order.

Click to expand...

That is also my understanding. Kiev said its forces in Debalcevo were not encircled so the cease fire line included these forces despite the fact that no people or supplies could enter D. at least since Thursday. NAF said they could surrender and be freed immediately or even a way out could be be arranged with OSCE if Kiev would agree with that. Kiev didn't, they didn't surrender so now the 'local security problem' is being cleared separate from the cease fire except that the heavy weapons are being used in an area from where they were supposed to be removed. An ugly situation with both sides violating the agreement caused by the refusal by Kiev to acknowledge the situation on the ground during the Minsk conference.

It seems largely a moot point now.
Irrespective of which news source you read, the opinion seems pretty much unanimous that the NAF have taken Debaltsevo in all meaningful senses and that the rest of the cauldron is disintegrating into a series of desperate and uncoordinated break out actions.

The conversation now seems to be about the method of which the remaining pro US forces are able to surrender. This may be itself a difficult exercise as it is being reported in numerous channels that the group HQ (and presumably command) has been destroyed, thus making it difficult to give, distribute or act upon the order.

Which ever way it finishes though, it seems that that this battle will be finished by end tomorrow.

It is also very instructive that the UN Resolution passed this evening; that calls on all sides to respect the terms of the ceasefire was of Russian drafting. So Putin very much in the driving seat of the process both in New York and in Budapest.

Well, it sounds like from the article that Danhilll posted that the Ukraine was prepared to do just that with their heavy weapons...but cannot do so while under fire.

Sounds like the separatists want the Ukrainians to be forced to surrender their weaponry in that location instead...although that has not been articulated.

Anyhow, the Ukrainians have indicated a willingness to cease fire and pull their artillery and tanks back. Whether the separatists will allow that is another matter.

Is Putin lying?

And they are running south deeper into militia territory! I understand the militia are already inside Debaltsevo .

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All my sources confirm that Debaltsevo is mostly in Novorussian hands and that the junta forces are in full retreat to the south of the pocket. All the top Novorussian brass was on hand today, including Kononov, Motorola, Givi, Mozgovoi and Zakharchenko as were many tens of Ukrainian prisoners. It appears that the junta forces were unable to provide the kind of resistance they showed in Peski, and that make sense because in Peski they were not surrounded and they had the fire support of Ukrainian forces just north and west of them. This time the cauldron is too deep and the "lid" too strong. See for yourself.

Debaltsevo AO as of Tue Feb 17 2010 GMT
You can see that the cauldron "lid" has now closed on Debaltsevo from the north and that the junta forces are either surrendering of fleeing south where there is quite literally nothing for them to do then to wait until they run out of food and ammo. Bottom line: it's over for the Ukie forces in the Debaltsevo cauldron.
Amazingly, the freaks in Kiev as still insisting that there is no cauldron but only a "bridgehead". The good news is that apparently nobody buys that nonsense any more and the mothers and wifes of the men caught in the cauldron are trying everything they can to force the Ukie high command to accept the Novorussian offer of an evacuation corridor. The try to protest in front of the General Staff building in Kiev, then the blocked traffic. In a particularly poignant moment one of these women put a megaphone next to a cellphone to amplify the voice of her son/husband calling from the cauldron and announcing that they had for about 3 hours of supplies left.
All this is truly catastrophic news for the junta in Kiev. First, their policy of denying the issue made it impossible for their forces to get out while it was still possible. According to Russian military experts, about half of all the (comparatively) combat capable units of the Ukrainian military have been surrounded in this cauldron and that means that 50% of the Ukrainian army is now gone. Second, while Poroshenko and the junta freaks tried as hard as they could to completely deny the very existence of the cauldron, thanks to the Internet and the Russian TV channels most folks in junta-controlled Ukraine know that they are being lied to. That, in turns, means that the regime is loosing the very little credibility it might have had with the general public. Last and not least, now there will be a lot of very ugly recriminations from all sides of the political spectrum about who is guilty for that latest disaster. I would not be surprised one bit if the Ukrainian death-squads (aka Azov battalion & Co.) decided to storm Kiev for two reasons: a) to take out their rage on the regime and b) because it is safer to storm Kiev than Donetsk. Poroshenko better watch his back now. By the way, rumor (unconfirmed!) has it that he already evacuated his family to Germany.

Novorussian intel is reporting that the junta is trying to assemble three battalion tactical groups and numerous MLRS north of the cauldron to try to rescue the surrounded forces, but this will be too little too late. The Novorussians are used to Ukie artillery and they don't fear their armor or, even less so, infantry. Besides, I bet you that now that they are inside Debaltsevo, the Novorussians will deeply dig in. When is the last time that the junta forces succeeded in an urban assault operation? Exactly.
Bottom line: yet another brilliant victory for the Novorussian forces and yet another humiliating defeat for the junta in Kiev.

The Saker

Yes I've read that Poroshenko has brought his family out of Ukraine. Seems like a Maiden2 or a Right Sector putsch is in the air.

The point of dispute is whether it is a cauldron or not. Kiev is saying it's not so they are not removing their soldiers from there. Not so much about moving heavy weapons. But the militia wants them to leave without their heavy weapons.
Also, where is the ceasefire line as applied in that situation?

The militia has effectively surrounded the Kiev forces so if those NAF tries to move out with their armour the militia will attack them That gives Kiev the excuse that it is the militia that's breaking the ceasefire.

Delft has wrote further on this point in his post #771

So Kiev scores brownie points with western media.

Jeff Head said:

I am not understanding what your meaning is here.

"The discussion should have taken place after it had been cleaned out."

What do you mean, "cleaned out?"

Discussions took place and an agreement was reached, but according to the link you gave us, although the Ukrainians indicate they were ready to withdraw their heavy weapons, after the agreement was signed they have been attacked over and over again and now are unwilling to withdraw their heavy weapons until the attacks cease and a true cease-fire is in place.

Click to expand...

More on the situation in the cauldron. Have to thank the militia for giving a new meaning to "cauldron".



Desperate plea for help by national guard unit.

"Our HQ has fled, we are facing annihilation"--Junta battalion commander's frantic call on live TV




Translated from Russian by J.Hawk


Ukrainian troops are holding defense in strongpoints in the vicinity of Debaltsevo. There is street fighting in the city against Russian soldiers [sic] and Kadyrovites [sic].


This is what “Gross,” the deputy commander of the 25th Kievan Rus battalion, which is located near Debaltsevo, said during a phone call broadcast live by the TV news channel 24.


“There is street fighting in Debaltsevo. The enemy is using Russian Federation [sic] special operations units and Kadyrovites [sic] to storm Debaltsevo. They control 90% of it. Our forces are defending strongpoints. The sector HQ and the sector commander have abandoned us, they do not control the situation, they don’t know where the troops are,”- said “Gross.”


He noted that his troops need immediate help. They tried to reach the General Staff several times, but there has been no reaction.


“Our troops are facing annihilation,” said the deputy battalion commander.


“They are searching for the sector commander. Nobody knows where he is,” he added.


We note that earlier the General Staff announced there is fighting in the streets of Debaltsevo, and that the terrorists [sic] are not allowing OSCE observers to reach the town. Part of the town was captured by the bandits [sic].


The counter-terrorist [sic] operation HQ spokesperson Anatoliy Stelmakh said that the militants [sic] have captured several buildings in Debaltsevo.


J.Hawk’s Comment: This is a report from Newsdaily.com.ua, which is a Kiev junta-supporting Ukrainian news outlet. The magnitude of the Debaltsevo Debacle is becoming more obvious with every passing minute…


The “sector commander” referred to in the report is in fact the commander of the entire Debaltsevo grouping, since that was one of the sectors of the front facing Novorossia, in other words, a fairly senior officer who is now nowhere to be found.

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The German's point of view. The militia has better weapons than the Ukrainian army.




German Intelligence: Ukraine Army Disintegrating