Because they're Russian?
What's with the rug on the tank?
Ukraine Revolt/Civil War News, Reports, Data, etc.
- Thread starter Jura The idiot
- Start date
I don't think I am quite that ambitious.
I think at this point I am still trying to understand the true nature of the problem and the sort of options that would present themselves and which would be relevant to reality.
The old Irish joke goes "that if you want to get to such a place, you would not want to start from here" For Putin here is where he is and until we have an idea of where it is he is trying to get to and why, understanding what he is doing will be difficult, especially given all the deliberate misdirection from all sides.
Most likely a chick tank commander, you're not getting into this "tank" with those muddy boots, I've heard it many times from the HoneyBadger, "I just mopped that"???? or maybe just going with a "Persian Mojo", or could be like Bill Clinton and the Astro Turf in the back of his El Camino??? or a "Welcome mat", makes as much sense as anything else going on in the world today??? perhaps Master Jura, you have a real answer???? What do you think Equation, as a single guy, you prolly haven't heard that much???? but you do have a sister??
My opinion is that NAF while very successful tactically is overrated by anyone thinking that they have the support of most of the Ukrainian people that is definitely needed for a complete conquest of Ukraine itself. NAF only has the support of the people in east and south Ukraine. West and central Ukraine do not identify themselves with Donbass.
Russia has allowed their "PX" to resume supply of ammo and fuel to the militia when there were signs that Kiev was ready to resume their offensive. Putin, in December, had promised not to let the Donbass fall. Hence, the very visible firepower of the militia during the retaking of the Donetsk airport with overwhelming artillery, tank and rocket fire in suppressing the Kiev defenders and their counter attacks.
Russia has allowed their "PX" to resume supply of ammo and fuel to the militia when there were signs that Kiev was ready to resume their offensive. Putin, in December, had promised not to let the Donbass fall. Hence, the very visible firepower of the militia during the retaking of the Donetsk airport with overwhelming artillery, tank and rocket fire in suppressing the Kiev defenders and their counter attacks.
Interesting news from Saker which might well answer the discussion between SampanViking and pla101prc.
Looks like the militia aims to push Kiev artillery out of range of their key Donbass cities which Kiev forces have been hitting indiscriminately at residential targets for the past months. Clearly the militia are not talking anymore until they have succeeded in doing so. At the way Kiev forces are underperforming when attacked it would bode ill that their entire front could collapse like the last time if the militia turn a flank on them. The map shows the likelihood of a big cauldron forming if the militia could cut it off and straighten their front line.
"This may turn out to be a critical day in the evolution of the Ukrainian conflict.
1. The Russian Security Council met today. We do not (obviously) have a full account but Putin's website has provided some details.
Strikingly, Putin referred to the junta as "official Kiev" and not "the Ukrainian government" or "the Ukrainian side". He also referred to the two east Ukrainian republics as "the Donetsk People's Republic" and "the Lugansk People's Republic".
This is the closest Putin has yet come to since Poroshenko's election in implying that the junta is not the legitimate authority in the Donbass and that the two NAF republics are.
2. Putin also pointedly referred to "criminal orders" coming from "official Kiev".
3. Putin has also had a telephone conversation with Lukashenko, who is a key partner in relation to the Ukrainian conflict. Again we have scarcely any information about what was discussed but Putin will have wanted to ensure that Lukashenko remains on board. I expect a phone call to Nazarbayev shortly.
4. We now know from comments made by Shuvalov at Davos that Beijing is being consulted all the time. The key point about what happened at Davos is that Shuvalov made it absolutely clear that Russia will not submit to sanctions and Kostin of VTB gave a very clear warning against any attempts to exclude Russian banks from the SWIFT payments system. The Financial Times has a good summary of the comments Shuvalov and Kostin made and I attach it below.
5. The Russian Justice Ministry meanwhile has formally banned a number of Ukrainian organisations including Right Sector. Some of us are surprised that they had not been banned already.
6. Zakharchenko has said that the Minsk Memorandum no longer applies. This is not the same document as the Minsk Protocol, which was the original ceasefire agreement that was agreed on 5th September 2014. Rather, it is the technical follow-up document that purported to set out the ceasefire line and which provided for the withdrawal of heavy weapons, which was agreed on 19th September 2014. Neither the Minsk Protocol nor the Minsk Memorandum have ever been implemented. By saying the Minsk Memorandum no longer applies Zakharchenko has freed the NAF to pursue offensive operations, which is currently what it is doing.
7. Lastly, Zakharchenko has also again been saying that the DPR's/LPR's decision to secede from the Ukraine is final.
Now it may be that all these discussions and conversations and comments are uncoordinated and do not in total amount to anything. Perhaps there has been no change in Russian policy. However they do look like a hardening of position and perhaps give clues that the Russians have at least for the moment given up hope of the diplomatic approach. They also suggest a preparation for a battening down of the hatches in case another round of sanctions is on the way."
"The airport is confirmed fully in Novorussians hands and the main combats are in the towns of Peski, Avdeevka, Krasnogorovka and Marinka which are shown in black on the map below:"
"In the meantime, the Minister of Defense of the Donetsk Republic has declared that 597 bodies have been recovered from the Donetsk Airport and that more are under the rubble. Keep in mind that what the Ukrainians like to call a "brigade" is usually a battalion-size force, about 600-800 men. In other words, it is quite possible that the entire 93rd "Zhitomir" Brigade whose commander was taken prisoner by the Novorussians has basically ceased to exit.
I would argue that it is quite possible that the Ukrainian front might break down and that the Novorussians could liberate a good part of historical Novorussia. "
Looks like the militia aims to push Kiev artillery out of range of their key Donbass cities which Kiev forces have been hitting indiscriminately at residential targets for the past months. Clearly the militia are not talking anymore until they have succeeded in doing so. At the way Kiev forces are underperforming when attacked it would bode ill that their entire front could collapse like the last time if the militia turn a flank on them. The map shows the likelihood of a big cauldron forming if the militia could cut it off and straighten their front line.
"This may turn out to be a critical day in the evolution of the Ukrainian conflict.
1. The Russian Security Council met today. We do not (obviously) have a full account but Putin's website has provided some details.
Strikingly, Putin referred to the junta as "official Kiev" and not "the Ukrainian government" or "the Ukrainian side". He also referred to the two east Ukrainian republics as "the Donetsk People's Republic" and "the Lugansk People's Republic".
This is the closest Putin has yet come to since Poroshenko's election in implying that the junta is not the legitimate authority in the Donbass and that the two NAF republics are.
2. Putin also pointedly referred to "criminal orders" coming from "official Kiev".
3. Putin has also had a telephone conversation with Lukashenko, who is a key partner in relation to the Ukrainian conflict. Again we have scarcely any information about what was discussed but Putin will have wanted to ensure that Lukashenko remains on board. I expect a phone call to Nazarbayev shortly.
4. We now know from comments made by Shuvalov at Davos that Beijing is being consulted all the time. The key point about what happened at Davos is that Shuvalov made it absolutely clear that Russia will not submit to sanctions and Kostin of VTB gave a very clear warning against any attempts to exclude Russian banks from the SWIFT payments system. The Financial Times has a good summary of the comments Shuvalov and Kostin made and I attach it below.
5. The Russian Justice Ministry meanwhile has formally banned a number of Ukrainian organisations including Right Sector. Some of us are surprised that they had not been banned already.
6. Zakharchenko has said that the Minsk Memorandum no longer applies. This is not the same document as the Minsk Protocol, which was the original ceasefire agreement that was agreed on 5th September 2014. Rather, it is the technical follow-up document that purported to set out the ceasefire line and which provided for the withdrawal of heavy weapons, which was agreed on 19th September 2014. Neither the Minsk Protocol nor the Minsk Memorandum have ever been implemented. By saying the Minsk Memorandum no longer applies Zakharchenko has freed the NAF to pursue offensive operations, which is currently what it is doing.
7. Lastly, Zakharchenko has also again been saying that the DPR's/LPR's decision to secede from the Ukraine is final.
Now it may be that all these discussions and conversations and comments are uncoordinated and do not in total amount to anything. Perhaps there has been no change in Russian policy. However they do look like a hardening of position and perhaps give clues that the Russians have at least for the moment given up hope of the diplomatic approach. They also suggest a preparation for a battening down of the hatches in case another round of sanctions is on the way."
"The airport is confirmed fully in Novorussians hands and the main combats are in the towns of Peski, Avdeevka, Krasnogorovka and Marinka which are shown in black on the map below:"
"In the meantime, the Minister of Defense of the Donetsk Republic has declared that 597 bodies have been recovered from the Donetsk Airport and that more are under the rubble. Keep in mind that what the Ukrainians like to call a "brigade" is usually a battalion-size force, about 600-800 men. In other words, it is quite possible that the entire 93rd "Zhitomir" Brigade whose commander was taken prisoner by the Novorussians has basically ceased to exit.
I would argue that it is quite possible that the Ukrainian front might break down and that the Novorussians could liberate a good part of historical Novorussia. "
poroshenko has indeed been placed in a precarious position by a string of defeats on the eastern front. soviet politics has a love for triumvirates, but are also remarkably inept at carrying it through to an ending without bitter tastes. looks like the poroshenko, yatz, and kolomoisky triumvirate just might also fall victim to the same unhappy fate as did its soviet predecessors.
a lot of talk about an offensive on mariupol right now. I will stick with my opinion about debaltseve being the main effort and mariupol as only a diversionary attack. NAF can only attack the city from the east right now, unless it outmatches the defenders by a long shot in both quantity and quality, it will be impossible to make any meaningful progress. in the meantime if they want to maintain adequate pressure on the ukrainian army and keep it off balance, it's best to hit a easier target. debaltseve is obviously a easier target, i would say schastya is even more suitable for this phase of NAF's offensive but it seems that they want to concentrate further to the west. if i were the commander it would be schastya - debaltseve, and mariupol saved for last.
Equation
Lieutenant General
That's nothing new. The US rewards many of it's allies with it's own military service medals since WWII.