Ukraine Revolt/Civil War News, Reports, Data, etc.
- Thread starter Jura The idiot
- Start date
solarz
Brigadier
Again, the key question is, what is Putin's desired end game?
If we ranked possibilities from conservative to ambitious, I can think of the following:
1- Create Novorossiya as a Russia-friendly buffer state. Possibly incorporate it into the Russian Federation. If this is the goal, then it would make sense for the NAF to push back Ukrainian forces and establish the new state's international legitimacy. This is the most conservative objective as I think it is the one most in line with realities on the ground.
2- Novorossiya is only leverage designed to overthrow the current Ukrainian government, with the hope of replacing it with a Russia-friendly administration. This seems rather unlikely considering the pro-West results of recent elections and referendums, but perhaps Putin sees things differently. In this case, the future of Novorossiya would be in doubt. Ostensibly, Putin would prefer a unified friendly Ukraine to a reduced Ukraine. While IMO not very much in line with current developments on the ground, this objective could explain some of Russia's murkier moves.
3- The NAF militarily overthrows the Ukrainian government, serving as a proxy for official Russian forces, and incorporates Ukraine into the Russian Federation. This is the nightmare scenario for NATO, but also IMO the most unlikely. Such a move could very likely precipitate direct Western intervention. Still, if successful (and that's a big if), this would be the most rewarding outcome in terms of Russia's security situation.
If we ranked possibilities from conservative to ambitious, I can think of the following:
1- Create Novorossiya as a Russia-friendly buffer state. Possibly incorporate it into the Russian Federation. If this is the goal, then it would make sense for the NAF to push back Ukrainian forces and establish the new state's international legitimacy. This is the most conservative objective as I think it is the one most in line with realities on the ground.
2- Novorossiya is only leverage designed to overthrow the current Ukrainian government, with the hope of replacing it with a Russia-friendly administration. This seems rather unlikely considering the pro-West results of recent elections and referendums, but perhaps Putin sees things differently. In this case, the future of Novorossiya would be in doubt. Ostensibly, Putin would prefer a unified friendly Ukraine to a reduced Ukraine. While IMO not very much in line with current developments on the ground, this objective could explain some of Russia's murkier moves.
3- The NAF militarily overthrows the Ukrainian government, serving as a proxy for official Russian forces, and incorporates Ukraine into the Russian Federation. This is the nightmare scenario for NATO, but also IMO the most unlikely. Such a move could very likely precipitate direct Western intervention. Still, if successful (and that's a big if), this would be the most rewarding outcome in terms of Russia's security situation.
Equation
Lieutenant General
more traction on the surface makes it easier to climb onto
What's with the rug on the tank?
no actually i just made that shit up lol
I think it is an Orthodox tapestry displayed for good luck.
It may even have been given to them as a blessing,
It may even have been given to them as a blessing,
I think you are missing half the question
I suspect the challenge is to not simply reverse the current circumstances and remove a hostile regime, but; given that this the second such colour revolution in a decade, prevent it from simply re-occurring for a third time, a few years further down the line.
It is not easy to answer as to understand how the country has been convulsed twice in such a short period, requires a very detailed understanding of the social structure and institutions of the nation and how they can be directed in such a way as to make such a hostile popular opinion.
Once you do understand the constituents that need to be reversed and neutralised, the viability of any option based on your choice of three would become apparent.
I know it sounds easy; almost glib to say, the reality however is in the detail and this solution is pure detail. Worth noting that Putin is of course nothing if not a detail man and likely to be very well versed in the structures and controlling personalities of the Ukraine.
solarz
Brigadier
I think you've just identified a fourth, even more ambitious goal. Unfortunately, I really can't see what actions Putin has taken to meet this goal.
The reason for the color revolutions are quite straightforward: an abysmal economy coupled with free access to Western propaganda. This is why the so-called "Jasmine revolution" never took off. I don't think Putin can do much about either of those factors, not when he's got much bigger fish to fry at home.
Well yes and no
To play an end game you have to get there first and the Ukraine is nowhere near that point.
There does seem a lot of informed opinion that says that the Ukraine is a problem that only Ukrainians can sort out. I still see Novorossiya as an interim step to give the pro Russian faction the traction, strategic depth and numbers to be able to do this.
Moreover though I think we are all blindsided by the reality of the country and our natural assumption that a modern state is the model with which we are familiar: That power is directed via Parties and exercised via the ministries and other institutions of state where the the levers of power and physically connected to the state itself.
I do not think the Ukraine conforms to this model at all, It seems to me that the Ukraine conforms to a model that we have not had for centuries, namely a feudal state, where real power is exercised by and for the feudal barons. I think that in the Ukraine, territory and assets "matter" as these are "owned" by somebody and that the ownership of assets is directly correlated to the configuration of power and conversely the policy and direction of the nation.
If you want to change Ukraine it is about which "Baron" do you need to bring down to scare the rest and which real estate do you need to sieze to achieve it.
It is no coincidence that the best armed battalions are the Private ones as these Punitive battalions are nothing more than the private armies of the Oligarch barons themselves. It is incidentally why I disfavour "PMC's" in any country as it is ultimately a Billionaire building a Private Army and the only difference is really the nature and circumstance of its deployment.
Is Novorossiya more of the same or actually different? I really do not know and can only restate that the political backdrop is murky in the extreme. If it is different, then the declaration of Peoples Republics has a significance that has not really been appreciated and they would represent a model or modernisation and reform in stark contrast with the regressive oligarchical feudalism of the rest of the country and could represent a significant factor in Putins plans for a solution.
The key word here is of course "if" and I have no idea if reality matches the propaganda.
its more or less a by-product of what putin is already doing now to achieve other aforementioned goals. similar to the notion that syria's civil war had put a brake on arab spring. whether it was deliberate is no longer relevant because as lavrov would say "the point is already made", and frankly putin does not have the luxury to dabble into another ukraine-like scenario elsewhere.
we must not however fixate our conception of "end-state" as one that is solid or perpetual. reversion of ukraine's political sentiment back to a relatively russian friendly form will take years to materialize if possible at all. i'd like to imagine putin's end state as a fluid one, balance in motion if you know what i mean, similar to china's relation with taiwan. likewise, it'll require the rest of putin's political career to manage.
if i am reading correctly, you are basically alluding to another revolution in ukraine.
problem is, as you've admitted, that is not something that can be achieved possibly even in putin's lifetime. it's realisation will span over decades if there is one at all. for a more tangible discussion i think we ought to be talking about an interim end state that can be achieved through military actions and diplomatic maneuvers.