His reversal of American policy makes America seem mad, but his idea makes a lot of sense by itself.
1. Ukraine did fuck up; it should have realized that it's a Slavic nation next to Russia so turning against Russia will be nothing but pain and stupidity. The lowliest kind of people are those who fight against their own blood; Ukraine deserves to be ended, no mercy.
2. Trump realizes this is a war that the West cannot win. The longer it drags out, the more it will drain American and Western resources that should be dedicated to the tech war against China. The longer it drags out, the more total Russia's victory will be and the worse the final lines will be drawn, so he needs to take the pain and end it now... if Putin will allow it.
3. There will inevitably be some warming of relations between Russia and the US, (then the EU as they slowly accept defeat), which will be some relief from the nonstop Sino-Russian entwinement over these last 2 years that is terribly horribly bad for any American/Western future attempt to squeeze China (or Russia).
However, all this might be too little too late. Russia likely already sees that it can get whatever it wants in negotiation or keep taking it for free and the bonds formed between Russia and China will be extremely difficult to cut/reduce given both countries have seen what their combined powers do against the West. Another problem is that Trump can't get around the incredible loss of confidence this will cause in America's leadership of the West, which is exacerbated by his attacks on them whether it be policy threats, tariffs or direct annexation. That contributor to the problem is entirely self-inflicted.
