I don’t think his gonna spend tons of money. If he does what he did with Biden Chip Subsidies. Then his more likely going to use the stick than the carrot as leverage to bring US companies back. If you don’t build here then you get a 100% tariff.
Trump 2.0 official thread
- Thread starter siegecrossbow
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I don’t think his gonna spend tons of money. If he does what he did with Biden Chip Subsidies. Then his more likely going to use the stick than the carrot as leverage to bring US companies back. If you don’t build here then you get a 100% tariff.
I agree that he will increase net spending and debt overall (remember, him cutting taxes for the rich is the same as if he gave more to social welfare like Biden in terms of the government budgeting), just like any presidency before him, at an even higher rate. However, I'm 100% sure that he can't do anything productive for re-shoring, as it would require decades of painful adjustments (they're mentally not ready for now).
This is exactly what I meant by a Gordian Knot. Taking that route also means immediate incoming inflation, on top of the already existing, unfaked real inflation, would likely accelerate collapse due to the present, end-stage socio-political polarization and division.
All that, lower interest rates, a weaker currency, and a different structure of economy are together mega-inflationary bomb in the medium term. The US can't take it now when the country is socially on the brink. Old empires simply can't afford such huge shocks anymore.
For example, they can't take decades of such significantly altered standards of living peacefully, this is not some East Asian collectivistic culture. This is already one of the most polarized nations on Earth with the most hubris in history. Once they lose their lucky position, they are done.
And that's even if he took the right approach and wasn't just for show and did all the necessary logical steps and not daydreaming. However, the problem is that by all indications what we see regarding "re-shoring" is just some WWE-like clown theatrics in the first place.
The real issue with Americans is their arrogance. They believe re-industrialization can happen overnight, that they can suddenly transform into high-tech manufacturing powerhouses like Japan, South Korea, or China overnight without laying the decades of groundwork first.
They see the foundational, dirtier stages of industrial work as beneath them, but that mindset is precisely why they’re failing. They're aiming too high without first building the necessary foundations. What they need first is a complete shift in priorities, worldview, and governance too:
- Establish basic broad supply ecosystems, logistical infrastructure, and industrial clusters.
- Invest heavily in accessible public education. Launch campaigns to double the STEM graduates.
- Nationalize parts of the financial sector to ensure capital is available for real investment.
- Implement laws that rein in mega-corporations and redirect capital away from wasteful ventures.
- Humbling themselves and starting "copying" China, begging for their FDI for example.
- Increase imports of capital and intermediate goods from China in the beginning.
- Nationalize many different industries entirely in the utilities sector for cheaper supply.
- Change the culture regarding private property, work ethic, vocational skills, etc.
- And enact tens/hundreds of other policies essential for rebuilding a true industrial base.
- Tariffs and trade wars are simply not enough if you don't create anything productive inside.
The hard truth? America is done. Their chances of re-industrializing are about 0.01%. It's hard to come back once you de-industrialize fully once.
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The thing is that they don't need to start from the start, they can just gut their allies for re industrialization. The US don't give dam about them. They did it with Japan once, but it didn't work out for the US too well that time and they are doing it to Europe and Taiwan now. If they tried, they could steal a lot of Korean, Japanese and European manufacturers and force them to set up in the US.
I don't think America will do well in re-industrializing; it's too much work for too little gain. Not many want to waste billions on re-industrializing US if they are still going to be out competed by China. But it's clear that America is turning towards protectionism and it's probably going to try to give itself as much advantages as possible at the expense of their allies.
That approach isn’t working, just look at what’s happening with TSMC’s plants in the US. They’re struggling with a lack of work ethic, discipline, and the right workplace culture, along with shortages of qualified engineers, technicians, proper infrastructure, and reliable supply chains. On top of that, the cost of doing business in the US is high in general as in any industry you imagine; labor, land, construction, energy, you name it is sky-high. And then there’s the insane level of red tape, endless layers of regulations, and bureaucracy, which only makes things even worse.
The US economy is a supersized version of the UK’s (finances, services, etc), structurally different from the economies of Japan and South Korea. That fundamental mismatch makes it tough for companies from those regions to operate there. Given the current conditions and deep-rooted issues/decay in the US, the only way they’d relocate is if the government covered the entire cost (subsidizing the entire production as with the TSMC) because products made in the US wouldn’t be competitive in the real market. The real world doesn’t work like a video game where you can just pick up a factory from one hyper-efficient system and drop it into a dysfunctional rotting system/society and expect it to run smoothly.
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manqiangrexue
Brigadier
No, that's just further confusion and back&forth in the government, which is more madness.
It isn't even 100% work ethic, it is shit management and unequal distribution of labor.
Chinese workers get a 2 hour paid lunch break and are allowed to sleep at work.
American workers don't. Instead it's divided between the 10% who literally do 1 hour of work per day while shitposting on Twitter and the 90% who do back breaking labor for nothing while their CEOs are making like a 400% profit margin.
The left hand does not know what the right hand is doing... which is normal in most large organisations.
Not in the US, though. In the US, the left hand does not know that it is the left hand, and the right hand doesn't think it's a hand at all.
The issue in the US is systemic. It really all stems from a system that does not reward long term planning, as politicians are focused on the next 2-4 years while corporations are focused on the next quarter. Take the issues you raised for example, getting a massive increase in qualified engineers, technicians, etc. would mean massive investment in education, something that won't even begin to pay off for 10+ years and would take decades to break even. Building proper infrastructure is the same, many years before they even start to make money, decades if ever before they break even, and they're pretty much never more profitable than investing in the stock market.