Someone said that America goes through 80 year politics cycles and 50 year economic cycles. In 2020 the FDR political cycle ended and the Regan economic era ended. So we are entering a very transitional and chaotic time in American history. Some historians it’s similar to America in the 1850s the decade before the civil war. This coming recession is going to determine everything. Bear in mind that 2008/2009 GFC lead to the Tea Party movement then later Trump and in the left occupy Wall Street then the Bearnie sanders movement which was crushed.
Difference from now then back then was that at that time millions of Americans had hope and believed in the system. This time around there isn’t hope. There is anger,frustration and a belief on both sides that the social contract is broken. So expect more political polarization and even political violence in the aftermath of this coming recession especially if the wealth gap widens even more.
The wealth gap will likely widen. Reasoning below
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For the past 30+ years, the bottom 50% of Americans have seen their incomes actually decrease.
If you think about it, this is amazing statistic.
What happened to all the economic gains in terms of technology, productivity and globalisation over the past 30 years?
The answer is that all these gains over the past 30 years have flowed to the rich in America.
And this occurred during both Republican and Democrat governments.
The studies also indicate that in terms of actual decision-making, American politicians has been captured by interest groups and money. That is not democracy. As the Financial Times (London) points out, this describes a plutocracy.
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And if we look at what Trump is proposing, it is essentially:
1. lower taxes for the rich
2. cutting government spending, which is disproportionately consumed by the working class
3. increased tariffs on imports. These costs will be paid disproportionately by the working class, not the rich
So if anything, incomes for the bottom half of Americans will continue getting worse, along with even more wealth inequality as the rich get richer.
But the American working class doesn't understand this.
All they see is the left/right divide, and populists like Trump blame immigrants and foreign countries as the reason why the working class is getting poorer. (The solution to this problem is actually higher taxes on passive income from wealth and more redistribution)
So in 10 years, we can reasonably expect to see the Republican party and Republican Presidents become even more nakedly populist than Trump. We'll also see more outright and blatant corruption, such as the Trump and Melania memecoins recently launched with no other purpose than to scam Americans and enrich the Trumps. Plus Trump has normalised domestic vindictiveness and political purges in the US government.
So American internal divisions should become far worse in the future.
Something similar is happening to other already developed countries.
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The situation feels very much like a Marxist description of capitalism and the divide between the proletariat versus the bourgeoisie.
And there are parallels to the early twentieth century when the US government was controlled/run by the Robber Baron Oligarchs of the era.