Trump 2.0 official thread
- Thread starter siegecrossbow
- Start date
What made American hegemony relatively attractive or at least politically palatable — prior to the arrival of President Trump — was that it afforded client states, especially relatively wealthier "allies," a semblance of respect and sovereignty.
The pretenses of agency and independence made it possible for "vassal lords" in Tokyo, London, Seoul, Berlin, and elsewhere to offer domestic constituents illusions of a dignified existence under Pax Americana.
However, Trump's insatiable desire for himself and America to "win" at the visible expense of other states has rendered the Washington led "rules based international order" increasingly untenable.
To put it crudely: Daddy Trump's inability to "sweet talk Uncle Sam's bitches and hoes" is expediting the collapse of Pax Americana.
Only ONE question remains in my mind: Are the toilets in the Trump WH gold plated or solid 24ct gold-I need to know.
People in that country are massive tools good damn. Vibe based policy and decision making, full on, unconditional support for made up foreign war, followed up by shock and terror after realising their actions have consequences, repeat ad naseaum every 20 years. Zero self awareness everytime.
A nation whose policy and concerns are purely manufactured by current conman in chief based on prevailing vibes and not based on any real understanding of the world, not even their own history or lived experiences.
To be fair, one can say that Trump is first US president since 1990s(that includes his first term). After Monica, it always was the collective president. (I.e. eunuchs dutifully helping young emperors out, with mid-late Biden being apotheosis of that)
The average American is not any smarter or dumber, kinder or meaner, better or worse than the average citizen of any other relatively sizable Western country enjoying a comparable level of development.
What makes Americans stand out, if not unique is that as citizens of the incumbent hegemon, their political choices are — for better and worse — frequently felt globally rather than just locally.
Likewise, the US ain't the first and won't be the last "democracy" to "elect" or install a conman as its leader: humans are deeply flawed creatures and their politics have reflected their imperfections — as individuals and as a species — since time immemorial.
If you're as critical of the United States as you sound, then you ought to thank and praise The Lord Almighty™ — or whatever your higher power of choice might be — for the American voter's decision to return a conman to the Oval Office: a godsend for those sick and tired of the effects and reach of the Beltway's foreign and national security policies.
There's a reason why many of our friends who identify as Chinese nationalists (not of the KMT variety) practically consider 川建国 one of their own:
Donald Trump will not restart the trade with China. No one believes that. The US stock markets closed at an all time high again. Why is the American market going up? Because everyone knows the US-China trade is over.
We must remember what happened.
1. The US economy contracted in the 1st qrt because of all the trade war threats.
2. After Liberation Day, and the tit-for-tat, an trade embargo between the two countries was in effect.
3. The bond market collapsed that week in the US. They said it stopped functioning. All this means that if these issues were not resolved, we were looking at another credit collapse and a 2008 style type of meltdown.
4.. Container ships were empty. There was no goods coming to America from China. This means no retail sales, which means the US economy will contract in the 2nd qrt, giving them a recession as defined in the textbook ECO-101.
Trump was finished if he did not change his position or course correct, haha! He was finished. A recession, and financial panic, all because of Liberation Day. What a goof-ball president. That was so funny!
Trump only had a week or ten days to unscrew what he screwed up.
Politically, Trump was finished if he could not stop the financial panic from spreading (which would have caused a deep recession), and he was finished if the economy contracted for another quarter because there appeared to be no goods on the shelves.
Now, there was a curious point, that some suggested that the Chinese might not pick up the phone if Trump called Xi. Remember back in 1989 the 6.4 incident? Okay if you don't, we just got to know that after relations improved, there was a hot-line install. When 6.4 happened, the Americans called the Chinese and the Chinese refused to pick up the line. What was interesting, the Russians or Soviets, later said the same thing, they called, but no one answered.
That was the events of the month of April.
Let's sum this up.
1. Financial panic ---> recession
2. 100% tariffs is a trade embargo ---> recession
3. The American believed the Chinese would not retaliate, but they did, then the Americans believed the Chinese would, but they never called. At this point, no one really knew. What if the Chinese did not want to deal with the Americans anymore? Once there is a trade embargo in place, history tells us what is next and that always usually gets worst.
So what did Trump do?
1. He rolled back the tariffs on everybody except China. This calmed the financial markets and averted that crisis.
2. He still had to make some sort of peace or truce with the Chinese, and it became a battle of wills, where in the end, Trump had no choice but to relent and make that call. No container ships coming meant a recession is a sure thing, and Trump will pay for that at the ballot box in the mid-term elections.
This is why the US-China trade war will not start up again. Goods from China, and capital goods from China, are from China! American industry needs that stuff. With a total trade embargo, guess which side will see production stop.
Then we remember that after the tariffs were at 100%, the Chinese side also announced the rare earths export regime. No rare earths means no production.
We should not have any illusions here, as the real world is a hard tough place. It is not in American interests to start the trade war again with China, because it will collapse the economy and be political suicide for Donald Trump and the Republican Party.
That we can bet on with full confidence. That Donald Trump will try to save himself first. We saw that with the events in April. We seeing that again with the events in August surrounding the Epstein files again.
Always something.
Well, you know ... I don't like the bash the Indians all the time, I mean they got their issues, just like everyone else.
This time, this story is underplayed.
This is brutal what happened.
This is like very close to trade embargo.
We ask the question, what are Indian exports?
I mean, I do not know. I never bought a retail product from India, other than an item of clothing or some trinket. I heard that India exports some electronic goods.
Kiss that goodbye for America. That is the special about America. Easy to trade with. As long as we know the rules, everyone comes to the American market.
At this stage of development, the American market is vital for India, and that blew up in a matter of days!
Now those commoditized like goods, stuff India makes, other developing countries make too, have to compete in third markets, and not sure if the Indians will be able to compete.
Furthermore, probably the most important point, who is India's biggest trade partner? Let's answer it this way. India's biggest trade surplus is with America, and that is now gone!
I mean, this is a true game changing event, and not for the better.
What will happen next?
Modi will cave in, and India might preserve some of that trade surplus, which they desperately need for the foreign exchange because they got trade deficits with everyone else.
Modi will not cave in, which damages the economy in what could be extremely severe ways.
There are no good options here.
Frankly speaking, kind of stunned, and even feel sympathetic. The Indians were not in anyway able or capable to fight the Americans. They going to get squashed.
All they did was not even that egregious!
But they are going to pay for it through the nose.
I can't agree with this. While I don't think that Americans are intrinsically dumber than any other people, where they differ is in their biases deviate more from reality, and this affects both their international and domestic politics. In one camp, Trump is seen as the cause of most of American problems, and in another camp, he's seen as the savior of American problems. Both of these camps are very wrong. Trump is only a symptom of the underlying malaise. And I think that a lot of Americans know that this malaise exists and is potentially fatal, but it is due to their biases that they're unable to identify the true problems.