Trade War with China

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manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
s002wjh said:
Yes china can put resources manpower to develop chips . But that won't help ZTE immediately needs .
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Yes, in the short term, ZTE needs to redesign its line-up around non-US parts.
s002wjh said:
For high end chips it take years to developing. For someone just started its gonna take longer time and resources.
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China did not just start. It has ongoing semiconductor research and actually does produce some semiconductors although they are not on par with high end foreign counterparts. What is needed is acceleration of development, not initiation.
s002wjh said:
by the time it's done Intel etc already come up with newer chip then it's back to catch up again.
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By that logic, no one ever catches up to or surpasses anyone else in technology. You can make the same argument that when a bicycle races a car but gets a slight head start, the car can never surpass the bike because by the time the car gets to where the bike was, the bike would have moved forward from there.
s002wjh said:
The refreshing rate in semiconductors is much faster compare to other fields.
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Is it faster than supercomputer advancement?
s002wjh said:
This requires constant R&D , late comer need put double triple the efforts to have chance to catch up
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That's China's specialty.
 
S

s002wjh

Junior Member
manqiangrexue said:
Yes, in the short term, ZTE needs to redesign its line-up around non-US parts.

China did not just start. It has ongoing semiconductor research and actually does produce some semiconductors although they are not on par with high end foreign counterparts. What is needed is acceleration of development, not initiation.

By that logic, no one ever catches up to or surpasses anyone else in technology. You can make the same argument that when a bicycle races a car but gets a slight head start, the car can never surpass the bike because by the time the car gets to where the bike was, the bike would have moved forward from there.

Is it faster than supercomputer advancement?

That's China's specialty.
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For starters designed high end chips is harder . just look at how many top CPU company vs amount of countries doing SC I don't doubt China capabilities to eventually catch up but that take decades not coupled years .
 
Hendrik_2000

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
s002wjh said:
Yes china can put resources manpower to develop chips . But that won't help ZTE immediately needs . For high end chips it take years to developing. For someone just started its gonna take longer time and resources. by the time it's done Intel etc already come up with newer chip then it's back to catch up again. The refreshing rate in semiconductors is much faster compare to other fields. This requires constant R&D , late comer need put double triple the efforts to have chance to catch up
Click to expand...

But there are other supplier beside Qualcomm as I posted before Mediatek, HiSillicone, Spreadstrum I am pretty sure that right now ZTE is exploring all of those option. It take a while for them to redesign the phone that is true But they are not dead yet and I doubt the central government will allow them to go bankrupt
Beside the majority of their bussiness is not hand phone but wireless infrastructure. HP bussiness only make small part of their overall bussiness

Other company beside ZTE have been researching this SOC for a long time . It is ZTE folly to depend on US component for too long . I guess theyare too lazy and too focus on short term profit.

It is clarion call for all Chinese company not too be dependent on US supplier and the ramification is that supply is not reliable So from now on they will try harder to be independent in semicondouctor
Unwittingly US accelerate the creation of a formidable competitor and lost of major market for semiconductor
DcuaoMkX0AAnzF0.jpg
 
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T

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
s002wjh said:
For starters designed high end chips is harder . just look at how many top CPU company vs amount of countries doing SC I don't doubt China capabilities to eventually catch up but that take decades not coupled years .
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I don't know how you are so sure of that assessment. Chip or whole system, they are all in the pool of electronics together with software, in the bigger IT/telecom sea. Here things are pretty much following the same trend, there is no fundamental deference between one and another.

I will share my personal experience with you.

At early 1990s, the telecom industry has these names, Motorola, Nokia, Ericsson, Siemens, ATT/Lucent, Alcatel, NEC. The first three are the dominant mobile players. They all make in-house chips by themselves (mobile phone, base station, switch board chips and CPUs). By the early 2000s, Motorola, Lucent and Siemens are taking their last breath. That is only 10 years. Few years latter, Nokia was in deep trouble. Today in 2018, only Nokia (purchased Lucent) and Ericsson survived. All the rest are irrelevant. New players are Huawei and ZTE. Most of them use chips from external dedicated chip/component makers.

About 10 years ago, Intel chips are still dominant, but ARM aided by the surge of tablet has challenged Intel's profit. Intel has been fighting to get in this market by their ATOM line but not successful, then the Internet Things (IOT) comes (2015). Intel, Huawei and Qualcomm were the three main players. Last year (2017) Intel gave up.

Things change very fast in this line of business. I worked in this line for most of my professional life, seeing big companies (older than 100 years) raise and die or reborn (Nokia). I dare not to say anything with certainty. So let's keep an open mind, everything is possible and nothing is certain.
 
S

s002wjh

Junior Member
taxiya said:
I don't know how you are so sure of that assessment. Chip or whole system, they are all in the pool of electronics together with software, in the bigger IT/telecom sea. Here things are pretty much following the same trend, there is no fundamental deference between one and another.

I will share my personal experience with you.

At early 1990s, the telecom industry has these names, Motorola, Nokia, Ericsson, Siemens, ATT/Lucent, Alcatel, NEC. The first three are the dominant mobile players. They all make in-house chips by themselves (mobile phone, base station, switch board chips and CPUs). By the early 2000s, Motorola, Lucent and Siemens are taking their last breath. That is only 10 years. Few years latter, Nokia was in deep trouble. Today in 2018, only Nokia (purchased Lucent) and Ericsson survived. All the rest are irrelevant. New players are Huawei and ZTE. Most of them use chips from external dedicated chip/component makers.

About 10 years ago, Intel chips are still dominant, but ARM aided by the surge of tablet has challenged Intel's profit. Intel has been fighting to get in this market by their ATOM line but not successful, then the Internet Things (IOT) comes (2015). Intel, Huawei and Qualcomm were the three main players. Last year (2017) Intel gave up.

Things change very fast in this line of business. I worked in this line for most of my professional life, seeing big companies (older than 100 years) raise and die or reborn (Nokia). I dare not to say anything with certainty. So let's keep an open mind, everything is possible and nothing is certain.
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Yes company can change all the time .I mainly refer in chip since I work in chip related field . all am saying a lot ppl are too optimistic I'm more on cautious side . Its not the 1st time china try to dominate the chip industry so far it's not as successful as it want to be
 
ZeEa5KPul

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
s002wjh said:
Yes company can change all the time .I mainly refer in chip since I work in chip related field . all am saying a lot ppl are too optimistic I'm more on cautious side . Its not the 1st time china try to dominate the chip industry so far it's not as successful as it want to be
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Maybe the problem is that there are too many negative Nancys in the chip field who lack the drive and gumption to get the job done. Maybe that's why China isn't where it needs to be today. Maybe those people should quit the field and take up something more their speed, like knitting.
 
T

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
s002wjh said:
Yes company can change all the time .I mainly refer in chip since I work in chip related field . all am saying a lot ppl are too optimistic I'm more on cautious side . Its not the 1st time china try to dominate the chip industry so far it's not as successful as it want to be
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I agree with the cautious part. But I think other people are not necessarily over optimistic. The argument in-between could be due to "nobody in the debate made it clear that they agree with each other's reasonable concern". That often makes people argue with others who fundamentally agree with each other.:)
 
S

s002wjh

Junior Member
Hendrik_2000 said:
But there are other supplier beside Qualcomm as I posted before Mediatek, HiSillicone, Spreadstrum I am pretty sure that right now ZTE is exploring all of those option. It take a while for them to redesign the phone that is true But they are not dead yet and I doubt the central government will allow them to go bankrupt
Beside the majority of their bussiness is not hand phone but wireless infrastructure. HP bussiness only make small part of their overall bussiness

Other company beside ZTE have been researching this SOC for a long time . It is ZTE folly to depend on US component for too long . I guess theyare too lazy and too focus on short term profit.

It is clarion call for all Chinese company not too be dependent on US supplier and the ramification is that supply is not reliable So from now on they will try harder to be independent in semicondouctor
Unwittingly US accelerate the creation of a formidable competitor and lost of major market for semiconductor
DcuaoMkX0AAnzF0.jpg
Click to expand...
Which is why in my 1st post I ask if ZTE had alternative to solve the issues what's the pro and cons . I agreed with recent ZTE issue china can't too depend on US semiconductor . Like other said ZTE phone is small part of their business . Telecom is a core for ZTE . So what parts ZTE need substitute for those area
 
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