Instead of keep bringing up Japan, maybe you could actually provide some evidence in support of your argument?
I know what China is like. Every year, the Spring Festival brings the largest human mass migration in the world. Train tickets are sold out months in advance. Migrant workers spend 11 months a year away from their home, and the Spring Festival is their only chance to see their families. Every October, there is one week of mass tourism. People pack themselves onto trains to visit China's famous landmarks.
There is a huge demand for transportation in China that neither you nor Michael Pettis seem to be aware of, or you would not be making those kinds of arguments.
Like this ?. so much for the theory of "Bridge to no where". Not to mention of loss productivity,pollution, frazzle nerve etc
Beijing commuters expect convenient city public transportation
Do you know what Beijing looks like at five o’clock in the morning?
Well, I bet it’s much more crowded than Kobe Bryant’s LA.
An exhausted commuter who just arrived at work sits in his chair. He glances at his watch, “An hour and half, not late. Good.”
An exhausting morning routine is common for most commuters in Beijing, the first megacity in northern China, with a population of 21.71 million in 2017.
Many workers set off at five o’clock morning due to Beijing’s commuter-unfriendly road planning and construction, which results in severe urban traffic congestion during rush hours. In addition, the old block-divided design of the city is a major cause of relatively lower road density, which adds more distance among connecting points and makes it hard for vehicles and passengers to pass through.
The result is millions of workers getting up before dawn to flood into the downtown area and seemingly-endless wearing commuting.
A study conducted by Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba on Chinese nightlife shows that the biggest demand for taxi services comes around five o’clock in the morning, the free bus after overtime peaks around 11 pm.
The average one-way distance of a Beijing commuter is 13.2 km, with a commute time of 56 min on average. That is followed by Shanghai’s 12.4 km, 54 min commute and Chongqing’s 12.2 km, 54 min commute, according to data from the 2018 Chinese City Commuting Report.
The capital city already enforces odd-even license plate restrictions to reduce traffic volume and optimize the public transportation system, especially the metro stations during commuting peak times, as a way to ease the traffic pressure on the workdays for Beijing commuters.
Beijing has practically free public transit and an amazing subway network that puts the Toronto one to shame. The Shanghai public transit is more expensive, but just as expansive.
With the addition of HSR, formerly out of reach towns have become urban suburbs. For example, Kunshan used to be a "middle of nowhere" town near Shanghai. Now, it's developing into a new Shanghai suburb thanks to the HSR stop.
Infrastructures are always useful. They are always needed by somebody. The question is, do you get a positive return on your investment. And if some of the investments have low or negative returns over their life time, do you want to take your country ever deeper into debt to invest in such things. Investments are suppose to create higher growth in the future. What Michael Pettis and I are arguing is that these investments are doing the opposite. We are not going to convince each other on this forum, but time will tell who is right.With the benefit of hindsight, some are now calling the Japanese investments bridges to nowhere, but if you were here in the early eighties, the overwhelming consensus was that they were invincible and will take over the world. Some at the time even praised their "super long term planning" and infrastructure investment as a virtue.
Beforehand: gold and silver based commodity moneys never had "stable value", just check the inflation/deflation periods in the 1800s.You make a deep comprehension mistake right here.Gold or silver chosen as money because of its relative steady value instead of other commodities whose value could vary due to a bad harvest, wildfires etc. A steady point is needed to measure the value mirroring other commodities, and what a better from gold which itself is a commodity and has a value. How the value of a commodity is beeing measured? Mirroring values of other materials composing it, tools and of course work! That goes down to the other materials etc. Without work none of that materials could put together and make a commodity. Now, going back we can find that a currency based on gold rule has it value in whatelse? Work, though productivity! Fiat money instead is based on speculations, national or better personal interests ,etc(i don't think a worker want its work being valued arbitrary unless he can manipulate that value himself, adding that capitalist made inflation devalue its work even gold or fiat money is in circulation, and thats why socialist revolutions happened and will happen ) So, it looks like, it works like real money but is arbitrary at all. Thats the difference.
I m not believe it, I KNOW that the central planning is extremely inefficient compared to the market economy.If you believe economic planning is impossible for humans or computers then you are basically saying economics is impossible and the any sort of economy is impossible. Even in a capitalist economy there is economic planning within each firm and individuals engage in economic planning as well. There's nothing different between individuals and enterprises engaging in their own economic planning in a capitalist economy vs. the state doing the planning in a socialist economy. Either way economic planning is taking place, and it has taken place under feudal and slave economic systems as well. In fact, removing the market and moving to input-ouput analysis will actually be computationally simpler than many agents planning with less complete information within a market. The computational power to perform economic planning has existed since the 90s and the complexity of the calculation is O(N log N) which is the fastest performance for any non-trivial algorithm.
I killed today an "improvement " project idea.Infrastructures are always useful. They are always needed by somebody. The question is, do you get a positive return on your investment. And if some of the investments have low or negative returns over their life time, do you want to take your country ever deeper into debt to invest in such things. Investments are suppose to create higher growth in the future. What Michael Pettis and I are arguing is that these investments are doing the opposite. We are not going to convince each other on this forum, but time will tell who is right.With the benefit of hindsight, some are now calling the Japanese investments bridges to nowhere, but if you were here in the early eighties, the overwhelming consensus was that they were invincible and will take over the world. Some at the time even praised their "super long term planning" and infrastructure investment as a virtue.
You "knew" a lot of things that were disproved, including, oddly, whether people in my family were proud of me LOLI m not believe it, I KNOW that the central planning is extremely inefficient compared to the market economy.
Show all calculations, please...The difference is 2-3 times in difference. Anyway, planning the activities centrally for a 1000 person company has (-minus)20-50% efficiency difference compared to low level decision making/resource management distributed among the employees.
It is one of the reason why the US companies are more efficient, the workers over there has huts to stand up and make independent decisions.