Trade War with China

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solarz

Brigadier
Supposed you came up with a transporter that can transport a person or a goat from one place to another within a 5000 square mile area in less than a second. It cost 10 billion to build and lasts for 10 years. There is a $1.00 cost each time it is used. For the African nation of Zamunda, a goat herding country, this would be a disaster investment. For the next ten years, it does not improve the productivity of goat herding much. The cost per use is too prohibitive for the goat herders to pay. So it sits there, seldom used and after 10 years,. it is removed without adding to the economy. The goat herders cannot get themselves to be electrical engineers or bond traders in the next ten years. Since it was recently discovered that Zamunda has a lot of coal deposits, it may turned out that a coal power rail road would do a lot more good for the nation. The same transporter would be a bonanza in the San Francisco Bay Area. With the average houses costing over a million dollars, this device would allow someone living in Stockton to commute to work and productivity would increase so much that it will pay for the device many fold. In a century, when the nation of Zamunda becomes a nation of bond traders and electrical engineers and the property prices shoots over a million each, it would then make sense to invest in a transporter.

You don't need this kind of science fiction example, you can just look at what happens to economically backward regions when modern transportation technology is introduced. Look at Ethiopia, once the butt of African poverty jokes, now the fastest growing economy on the continent, thanks in no small part due to Chinese-financed railroads.

You can sit in your armchair and imagine all kinds of scenarios that fit your prejudices, doesn't mean they have any bearings on reality. Only empirical evidence is valid for making predictions.
 

solarz

Brigadier
It depending on the situation.

If there is deflation then the country just needs to print money.
For 2000 years the success of all government on the earth depended on they ability to inflate and print more money.

With modern technology ( printing and accounting) there is no more upper limit about the inflation generating capability, so now it is about the taxation ( sterilisation) ability of governments.

So now human civilization has been using fiat money for 2000 years?

Okay, I understand. You're referring to a fantasy world. All your comments make sense now.
 

solarz

Brigadier
Since 2008, when massive spending propped up the Chinese economy, the debt incurred as a percentage of GDP is going steadily up while the growth of GDP is slowing down. This means the debt fueled spending have less and less impact on GDP growth.

In the U.S, infrastructure is better in both coasts where people actually live, because that is where a return on investment (in the form of productivity gain of the region) is possible. The same logic applies to China. Western China is significantly less densely populated and so the return on investment is lower. The fact that the Rockies has fewer roads per square mile compared to Los Angeles is not a reason to add more roads to the Rockies.

Correlation does not imply causation. In this case, you've got the cause and effects mixed up.

China's GDP growth was slowing down because its economic growth reached a bottleneck caused by geography. Up to then, most of the growth was happening in the Tier-one cities, and it was now bottlenecking further growth. The purpose of the infrastructure spending is to widen that bottleneck so that growth can flow out of the Tier-one cities and into the less developed areas.

Western China holds tremendous economic potential, and the infrastructure spending is there to tap into that potential. The difference between China and the US is that China has a government with a vision. It is willing to make huge investments where needed, instead of arguing endlessly about tax cuts and social programs.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
So now human civilization has been using fiat money for 2000 years?

Okay, I understand. You're referring to a fantasy world. All your comments make sense now.

There is no difference between the gold and fiat money from a heretical standpoint.

Many nation used gold/silver as forgery resistant material for currency.
It was due to the insufficient technology / communication methods.

With commodity based moneys the supply was restricted by hard to control parameters.

But they haven't had any choice, they simply hasn't had any other forgery proof technology.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
You don't need this kind of science fiction example, you can just look at what happens to economically backward regions when modern transportation technology is introduced. Look at Ethiopia, once the butt of African poverty jokes, now the fastest growing economy on the continent, thanks in no small part due to Chinese-financed railroads.

You can sit in your armchair and imagine all kinds of scenarios that fit your prejudices, doesn't mean they have any bearings on reality. Only empirical evidence is valid for making predictions.
If a peasant doing anything else than making ten bowl of rice per day he will be more efficient.

It is easy to show high growth if the infrastructure is so backward.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
The difference between China and the US is that China has a government with a vision. It is willing to make huge investments where needed, instead of arguing endlessly about tax cuts and social programs.
I think the CCCP and Japan inc realised long time before that it is nice to have vision, and will, but to found out the fine grained needs of a complex economy is beyond the capability of any computer of the Central Planning Ministry : P
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
If a peasant doing anything else than making ten bowl of rice per day he will be more efficient.
I don't know what you are trying to say but that's still better than parts of Europe where the peasants make 0 bowls of rice and expect the government to give them 10.
It is easy to show high growth if the infrastructure is so backward.
If it's so easy then there wouldn't be any more poor parts of the world left LOL Certainly, it's gotta be harder developing a poor country like Ethiopia than bankrupting a developing country like Greece...
I think the CCCP and Japan inc realised long time before that it is nice to have vision, and will, but to found out the fine grained needs of a complex economy is beyond the capability of any computer of the Central Planning Ministry : P
China has vision, will, resources, plan, and most unlike Japan, endurance to carry it through. You don't see progress like this with just vision and will; that's what you see in North Korea. I've no idea what this has to do with computers and I know that you don't either ;).
 

2handedswordsman

Junior Member
Registered Member
There is no difference between the gold and fiat money from a heretical standpoint.

Many nation used gold/silver as forgery resistant material for currency.
It was due to the insufficient technology / communication methods.

With commodity based moneys the supply was restricted by hard to control parameters.

But they haven't had any choice, they simply hasn't had any other forgery proof technology.

You make a deep comprehension mistake right here.Gold or silver chosen as money because of its relative steady value instead of other commodities whose value could vary due to a bad harvest, wildfires etc. A steady point is needed to measure the value mirroring other commodities, and what a better from gold which itself is a commodity and has a value. How the value of a commodity is beeing measured? Mirroring values of other materials composing it, tools and of course work! That goes down to the other materials etc. Without work none of that materials could put together and make a commodity. Now, going back we can find that a currency based on gold rule has it value in whatelse? Work, though productivity! Fiat money instead is based on speculations, national or better personal interests ,etc(i don't think a worker want its work being valued arbitrary unless he can manipulate that value himself, adding that capitalist made inflation devalue its work even gold or fiat money is in circulation, and thats why socialist revolutions happened and will happen :) ) So, it looks like, it works like real money but is arbitrary at all. Thats the difference.

I think the CCCP and Japan inc realised long time before that it is nice to have vision, and will, but to found out the fine grained needs of a complex economy is beyond the capability of any computer of the Central Planning Ministry : P

CCCP is a very different example from Japan, but PRC is more close( to CCCP), as central planning except of a way to avoid total anarchy of the economy,is also a way to exterminate the law of value. Or at least they tried. No market at all, everything was produced collective and distributed centrally so there were no competence or to be more specific, contradictions that value itself reproduces in a market economy( until Kosygin reforms). On the other hand there was no way of CCCP people to be 100% devoted to the cause , some jobs were harder than others and there were no such sophisticated machines or computers or robotics bach then,so money had to be somekind of motive and reward , so CCCP as an early experiment of scientific socialism was doomed to ingloriously fail. IF there's no contradictions and complexities of a market economy and it's just "needs-production-distribution" i think the option of that computer is getting close in the future just because of the evolution of the means of production. I'm very excited for the future despite i probably wont live too much to see it happens.

end of tonites communist propaganda :p
 
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canniBUS

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think the CCCP and Japan inc realised long time before that it is nice to have vision, and will, but to found out the fine grained needs of a complex economy is beyond the capability of any computer of the Central Planning Ministry : P
If you believe economic planning is impossible for humans or computers then you are basically saying economics is impossible and the any sort of economy is impossible. Even in a capitalist economy there is economic planning within each firm and individuals engage in economic planning as well. There's nothing different between individuals and enterprises engaging in their own economic planning in a capitalist economy vs. the state doing the planning in a socialist economy. Either way economic planning is taking place, and it has taken place under feudal and slave economic systems as well. In fact, removing the market and moving to input-ouput analysis will actually be computationally simpler than many agents planning with less complete information within a market. The computational power to perform economic planning has existed since the 90s and the complexity of the calculation is O(N log N) which is the fastest performance for any non-trivial algorithm.

ROFL, you said the state doesn't need taxation and can just print money, and now you're saying it needs taxation to fix problems caused by printing money?? LMAO!!!
Go back and read what I said. I said the state doesn't need taxation to fund state expenditures. I didn't say taxation as a whole was unnecessary. Keep in mind that using taxation to control the supply of money is also a good way to control the concentration of money. It is in the interest of every state to limit the concentration of wealth and avoid political decay into kleptocracy.
 

reservior dogs

Junior Member
Registered Member
I honestly cannot understand why it is so hard for you to grasp the very simple basic economic principle that price or the ‘environment’ has nothing to do with productivity. The only factors that counts when calculating productivity are inputs and outputs, with technology or skill being the reason for productivity gains.

I even mathematically proven that pure inflation would be more than accounted for the price increase over time you used as an example, with the cost savings compared to inflation down to actual productivity gains, such as using electric clippers with guiders, better techiques etc. Yet you still cling to your nonsensical, illogical and completely made up perversion of basic economic principles. You are behaving pretty much exactly like a certain someone on my ignore list who does the same thing.

Look, I made the simple statement below, in various forms,

Barbers across the world and in different times do essentially the same work but have vastly different standard of living due to the environment they work in.

Now which part of that statement do you object to and why?


Yeah, that conclusion from your example makes zero sense, and indeed sounds suspiciously like someone trying to dream up excuses to justify his believe that countries and people’s should ‘know their place’.

If there was such a incredible technological breakthrough, of course your made up country of Zamunda should build it.

Because even though they are predominantly goat hurders now, it does not mean it is the most productive allocation resources for them to be goat herders.

They could use this massive technological boost to rapidly climb up the value chain to open up other economic opportunities. Such as rebalancing their economy for tourism now that they can bring in vast numbers of foreign visitors for almost no cost per head. They can charge half the price of airline tickets and still easily break even on that $10bn initial investment and running costs with only a few million visitors a year in one year.

With such low per use costs, they won’t even need to invest in tourist infrastructure and can just beam the visitors back to the comfort of their own homes at the end of every day, and beam them back the next morning for more sightseeing.

Even their goat herders would massively benefit, since while it won’t make economic sense to move their goats around the pastures with it, it will make perfect economic sense to use this transporter to be able to sell their sheep to new markets proviously far too costly to reach.

It’s funny how your dreamed up extreme examples always does the opposite of what you think they should.

I remember when western pundits were making the same made-up nonsense criticisms of China’s investment in high speed rail, and predicting how it would all be a bust since no one in China was supposed to be able to afford a ticket.

New technologies brings with them new opportunities. If you do not adapt and keep wanting to do things the same old ways, then yes, investing in technology will be a waste.

But if you are willing to be flexible, to change the way you do things and embrace chances made possible by technology, you will thrive.

LOL, you must be one of those guys who, upon hearing the story of the Little Red Riding Hood, stands up and yell at the story teller: Hey, this story is made up, because it is common knowledge that if you go to the woods, you bring an armed drone and a sub-machine gun with you.

I made up this story to illustrate the fact that infrastructure, like clothing, must be tailored made to each country. That countries with higher productivity can make better use of more expensive infrastructure due to their higher productivity. That for some countries, the cutting edge stuff is not always best.

Now can a country with goat herding economy be turned into a country with tourism? That is the same question as, can a country of goat herders be turned into Wall Street traders or Silicon Valley. The answer is not always affirmative. It depends on a lot of things. Heck, even for a country like China, after several decades of struggle, only manage to achieve a quarter to a third of the productivity of the U.S. China is quite exceptional. There are plenty of nations where just stop the fighting long enough for the tourists to start coming was too hard to do. So even if Zamunda manage to transform into a tourist destination, it would take decades of work. If, in ten years time, they got 200 tourists to visit, would a $10 billion transporter be the best investment?

Infrastructure has a life span. It must have a positive return on investment during the life time of the infrastructure.
 
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